When the rumors were swirling around at the trade deadline last year, I was hopeful that the Braves would acquire a center fielder instead of a right fielder. When the news broke that they acquired Bourn I was ecstatic. Bourn is an outstanding defender and a solid leadoff hitter (though, he actually hits better in the 2 hole than in the leadoff spot).

One of Bourn’s greatest assets is his ability to utilize his speed to get on base and to turn one base into more. His singles have the potential to be stretched into doubles either through hustling or through stealing the base.

I recently found an article on Bill James Online discussing the value of bunting for a hit, written by John Dewan. It is definitely an interesting read, especially in light of having a solid leadoff hitter with Bourn’s speed atop our lineup. Dewan goes in depth discussing the art of bunting for a hit and the most successful places for a bunt to be successful.

This is a piece of the article that made me think about Bourn:

“We’ve pointed this out before: bunting for a hit in non-sacrifice situations has been an effective strategy for many players since we started tracking this in the early 1990s. The best bunters hit well over .500 when bunting for a hit.”

When I read this I immediately wondered what Bourn’s statistics looked like. I know he is a successful bunter. Look how he fared on bunts in 2011:

Dewan said that the best hitters hit well over .500 on bunt attempts. Bourn doesn’t hit well over .500, but I think that the fact that he gets a hit in half of his bunt attempts is pretty successful.

For comparison’s sake, I wanted to show you Jose Constanza’s success rate in bunt situations for last season:

I was surprised by Constanza’s stats actually. I thought that he would have a better overall average than only a .250 average on bunt opportunities. But, Dewan’s article offered more insight to why Constanza was not as successful:

“When a sacrifice situation was in effect last year (a bunt with men on base and less than two outs) there were 2,285 bunts put into play. 232 resulted in a hit for a .102 “batting average.” On the other hand, there were 850 bunts put into play in a non-sacrifice situation last year, with 372 going for hits, making for a .438 batting average.”

The success that Bourn has at bunting for a hit comes because of his success as a hitter in general. The defense has to respect his ability to get a hit like big league hitters should. That keeps the defense back and gives him the opportunity to get a bunt single.

Constanza does not garner the same respect as Bourn, thus, he rarely has the element of surprise from the defense’s standpoint. They took away the potential for the bunt single and eliminated a big part of his arsenal.

Overall, this confirmed what I thought, ultimately that Bourn is very good at getting on base when bunting.

The most recent piece of information on this came from David O’Brien from the Atlanta Journal Constitution. He posted this on Twitter yesterday:

Too early to know. Could be week, could be 4-5 wks. RT @Joshua_Mayfield: @ajcbraves how much of regular season is Hudson expected to miss?

At this point, there is still a good bit of ambiguity as to how much time Tim Hudson will miss. With pitchers and catchers reporting on Sunday (2/19) and Spring Training right around the corner, I am sure more information will come soon.

Out of all the places on the Braves’ projected roster in 2012, the one place that has the most depth is their starting rotation. That is an enviable and great luxury that the Braves have, no doubt.

However, there is no denying that not having Tim Hudson for any period of time will obviously hurt. He has led the team in wins and innings pitched for the past two seasons. He has had the lowest or second lowest ERA out of any of their starters. Overall, he posted a 6.4 WAR over the past two seasons combined, which leads all of the Braves’ starters during that same period. His WAR last year of 3.7 was the best on the team (though, Craig Kimbrel had a WAR of 3.2 in less IP).

Many of the advanced stats don’t treat Hudson as kindly. He doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters. Being a sinker-baller, means he depends on his defense a lot.

The reality is that Hudson is an important player for the Braves. He is the leader of the pitching staff and is an invaluable piece of their rotation. He has pitched some great games the past two years with a lot on the line. That is what the Braves need this year with a rotation that is full of unproven, though talented, youngsters.

Let’s hope that he has a quick recovery and that he misses minimal time. If he missed significant time, this would be a significant blow for the Braves’ playoff aspirations in 2012.

You can find Law’s rankings here (there is a subscription needed to read it). This is what he has to say:

They have reaped as little from the draft the past two years as anyone, taking low-ceiling college guys with early picks, staying at or under MLB’s bonus recommendations and having less luck on the international market. It’s telling that the major question on every position-player prospect in their top 10 is whether he’ll hit.

Law does make a good point. The Braves’ hitting prospects all have the same type of question, can they hit? It is also to be expected that the Braves’ farm system would have to take a step back with all of the players that have made their way to Atlanta. The past two seasons, the Braves have had won the rookie of the year award in 2011 and came in 2nd in 2011 and 2010. It is hard to replace Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor and Jonny Venters. Those are seven solid big league players that have come up the past three seasons.

They have Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to come up this year. (That doesn’t include Tyler Pastornicky; though, he isn’t really a “top-rated” prospect). That is almost half of their 25 man roster arriving in the majors in the past 4 seasons. That is remarkable when you think about it.

Maybe Law’s displeasure with the Braves’ draft the past couple years is feeding his thinking about the Braves’ overall ranking. Truthfully, the Braves’ organization will undoubtedly take a step back next year. They have lost so much depth to the majors. The Braves have focused on giving them organizational depth, which has worked well. It has lacked high-ceiling guys, but it has also hasn’t really hurt the organization. Maybe Schuerholz saw the writing on the proverbial wall and didn’t want to overpay for guys before the caps were in place. In that regard, the draft was a success.

It will be interesting to see what the Braves do this season. They also have some trade pieces that they are hoping to restock their farm with as well.

Overall, I have come to never doubt the Braves when it comes to drafting and developing pitching. Law is underestimating them in this regard.

Tommy Hanson made only 5 starts after the All Star break and was not the same pitcher as he was the first half of the year. He had shoulder pain and never was able to get rid of it. He missed most of the last two months of the year. His absence did not help this team during the September slide.

He has been working all offseason with trainers in Florida and Atlanta to strengthen his shoulder. Here are some quotes from Mark Bowman that give hope that he will be able to have a big 2012 season:

“It feels better now than it did [in December],” Hanson said. “I’m definitely a lot more optimistic now than I was even last month.”

Dr. James Andrews evaluated him in September and only found normal wear and tear around the shoulder.”

I will admit that Hanson’s shoulder problems have been something that has scared me. The reality about shoulder problems is that if surgery is required, there is no guarantee that the player will be able to come back the way they were before the surgery. Shoulder surgery is a huge question mark in baseball. Tommy John surgery is one that there is a high success rate for pitchers. Shoulder surgery is much more unpredictable.

The other piece of good news comes about Jason Heyward. David O’Brien reported that Heyward has been working with new hitting coach Greg Walker, assistant hitting coach Scott Fletcher, as well as Chipper Jones. Heyward has made corrections to his swing, which he made alterations during his struggles in 2012 and to help him play through injuries.

“This is what I was concerned with: When he got to spring training in 2010, and into the season in 2010, when the ball jumped off his bat it was a sound and sight unlike anything you had ever heard or seen before,” Jones said. “And I didn’t see that at all last year. And it’s due to some of the things that he was doing mechanically.

“To answer your question, weight is not an issue with him. The ball is jumping off the bat now close to what it was in spring training 2010. He’s got some more in there; he’s still making some adjustments and it’s a slow process. As Tiger Woods will tell you, you go through a swing change, it takes some time. But he’s starting to get it and he’s starting to get results.”

This makes me very excited. The thing that I found most interesting about Heyward’s struggles last season was that when he struggled there were so many people that were pointing out that his swing had “flaws.” What baffles me is the fact that in his rookie year, there were no concerns that he had “flaws” in his swing. No one said anything about “holes” or “flaws” in his swing. If you know of anyone that said anything about that, I welcome a friendly debate. I remember reading something last year how Freddie Freeman‘s swing had always been better than Heyward’s and that it was “hole proof.” First off, I want to say that I hope that is the case. Secondly, I think it is ridiculous. No one said this stuff before last season.

One more thing from Chipper’s interview with O’Brien:

“So we’re getting there. He’s 90 percent back. When he gets this hinge [wrists] right here, where he gets a little takeway — a little separation, we call it, between step and hands — he’ll be all the way back.”

For Braves’ fans ready for Spring Training and baseball to return to the forefront of the sporting world, this news is music to our ears. We have 11 days until pitchers and catchers report.

It is not like the Atlanta Braves really needed any extra motivation headed into this offseason. They collapsed in amazing fashion and saw the team that edged them out of a playoff spot celebrate with a World Series title. Questions of ‘What if?’ and “What could have been?” were undoubtedly left in their minds.

As a team, they had all the motivation that they needed to work hard and prepare for 2012 with a chip on their shoulders. Once the offseason began, the Miami Marlins caught the spotlight by opening a seemingly bottomless pocket book to bring in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell. They went after Albert Pujols and offered between $200 to $250 million (based on reports) for his services. The Marlins were like a teenager with their parents’ credit card. Their additions have made them a stronger team, no doubt.

The Washington Nationals got into the mix by trading for Gio Gonzalez and signing Edwin Jackson. These two players made their already up and coming team stronger. With the surge of youth and their growing willingness to add payroll makes this team loom as a danger for the foreseeable future.

These two teams had to provide extra motivation for the Braves’ team. Two of their rivals got significantly better this offseason.

The Philadelphia Phillies, meanwhile, signed Jonathan Papelbon and resigned Jimmy Rollins. This was their big splashes. When they still have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, their needs aren’t exactly enormous. They are still the team to beat in the NL East until they are dethroned by another team.

The Braves’ offseason has been quiet. They started with a boom by unloading Derek Lowe and his batting practice arm to the Cleveland Indians. They let Alex Gonzalez walk through free agency, taking his enormous bat with him. Their “big” offseason signing was Jack Wilson.

The realistic picture is that the Braves will have almost the exact same team back from 2011. This team was the same one that had the fourth best record overall in the majors as late as September 2, according to winning percentages.

If the Braves would not have had the Boston Red Sox collapsing in record fashion, this would have been the worst September collapse in baseball history. The Red Sox got most of the publicity and the Braves were able to ride into the offseason quietly and greatly disappointed.

Everything has created a perfect opportunity for the Braves. They still have their biggest rival as the team to beat. Two of their other rivals have made huge strides to make the division more competitive.

Then, there is Charlie Manuel. Here is what he said last week at CBSPhilly:

“If you look at it on paper, you have to say the Florida Marlins are the biggest threat”

He doesn’t discount the Braves in this article. He gives them respect. But, the fact that he said that the Marlins are the biggest threat only seems to add fuel to the fire.

This seems to make a perfect storm for the Braves. They had all the motivation they needed without the Marlins, Nationals and Charlie Manuel. Add this to their collapse and this team will have a lot to prove in 2012. I don’t know about you, but I am excited about the season getting underway.

Braves fans may remember Carlyle from his stint with the team in 2007 through 2009. He pitched 191 innings over the three seasons. He worked mostly out of the bullpen, but did make 20 starts in 2007 for the club. Overall he went 10-8 with a 5.09 ERA, a 1.435 WHIP and a ERA+ of 85.

Honestly, he was a serviceable pitcher for a good amount of time for the Braves.

Here is my problem with Carlyle:
When I was still living in Atlanta, I had tickets to the Braves and Boston Red Sox. He was starting that game for the Braves. I was running late to the game and was caught in horrendous Atlanta traffic to boot. The fact that the Braves were playing the Red Sox meant that the game was a sellout. This added to the parking problems. I was listening to the game on the radio. The Red Sox tagged Carlyle for 6 runs by the time that I got to my seat. The Braves were down 6-0 after 2. Needless to say, I was not a happy camper. I don’t think I have ever forgiven Carlyle for this.

Hopefully, I won’t have to watch him pitch on the big league team again. It will be hard to root for him.

The Braves signed Kawakami to a 3 year $23 million contract before the 2009 season. He really didn’t pitch poorly for the Braves. He was plagued by poor run support in his first season. His second year, he struggled mightily and finally was sent to AAA.

The biggest issue for Kawakami was that he did not perform at the level that the Braves were paying him. He and Derek Lowe combined tied the organization’s hands and underperformed. The lack of financial flexibility that the Braves had because of those contracts led the Braves to dump Lowe this offseason as well.

The Braves wanted to trade Kawakami before last season, but could not get a MLB team to take his contract. They were low-balled by some teams and the Braves refused to give Kawakami away. There were reports that a Japanese team would have given half of his contract. However, Kawakami wanted to play in the US and the Braves sent him to their AA farm team. I don’t think the Braves handled this situation well. This concludes the Kawakami saga. It will be interesting if the Braves can attract another Japanese player in the future due to the way Kawakami was treated.

When you look at the Braves’ statistical production from their catchers in 2011 you can see how valuable Ross and McCann truly are. The Braves’ catchers hit .276 (5th), with a .354 OBP (2nd), .462 slugging (3rd), .816 OPS (4th), with 92 RBIs (3rd), 29 HR (1st), and 167 hits (3rd) last season. The rankings in parenthisis was the MLB rankings as a whole, not considering the NL rankings.

Advanced stats were equally kind for the Braves. Their production saw a wRC+ of 118 (4th), wOBA of .344 (4th) and an overall WAR of 5.0 (4th). The most surprising thing to me, was that the Arizona Diamondbacks had a better year than the Braves in the advanced stats. This was no doubt due to the struggles of Brian McCann after coming back from a strained oblique.

Overall McCann had a very productive 2011 season.

466 AB, 51 R, 126 H, 19 2B, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 57 BB, 89 K, .270/.351/.466/.817, and an OPS+ of 124.

What is remarkable is the fact that McCann ended up with only his 2nd lowest batting average of his career last season. From a statistical standpoint, he had a solid overall 2011. What is crazy is the pace that he was on before his injury. He was being talked about in some circles as a serious MVP candidate. This was rightly so. Look at his pre and post-All Star stats:

One other chart for you to look at is his monthly production. McCann hurt his oblique in an extra innings game at the end of July. Notice the drastic dropoff in August through the end of the season in October:

There is no wonder that the Braves struggled so mightily down the stretch. McCann is their most consistent hitter. He was not the same hitter at all. What is fascinating is the fact that his numbers resembled his career numbers overall, even though he was on such a torrid pace.

As for Ross, he had a solid year as well. Statistically, it was his worst season since signing with the Braves before the 2009 season. Look at his 3 year stats for the Braves:

2009 – 128 AB, 18 R, 35 H, 9 2B, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 21 BB, 39 K, .273/.380/.508/.888 and an OPS+ of 133.
2010 – 121 AB, 15 R, 35 H, 13 2B, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 20 BB, 28 K, .289/.392/.479/.871 and an OPS+ of 136.
2011 – 152 AB, 14 R, 40 H, 7 2B, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 16 BB, 51 K, .263/.333/.428/.761 and an OPS+ of 109.

Ross had a WAR of 1.3 in 52 games. His wRC+ was at 110 and he had a wOBA of .332. Overall, his career statistics are off the charts in Atlanta. In his 9 year MLB career (dating to 2002), Ross had never hit higher than .258 until he came to Atlanta. He posted the highest OBP of his career in 2009 and beat that in 2010. He has had consistent power, but has posted his 3rd and 4th best slugging % of his career in 2009 and 2010.

The picture of the Braves’ catching situation is very bright. They have the one of the game’s best catchers in Brian McCann. They have one of the game’s best backups in David Ross. These two form a formidable punch from behind the plate. Ross has the better arm and defense. McCann has the better bat.

Looking ahead to the upcoming season, I would expect McCann to rebound from a poor end to his 2011. Bill James has projected McCann to put up the following next season: .276/.360/.484 with 24 HR and 88 RBIs. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to think he cannot meet this projection, if not beat it.

James’ projection of Ross, on the other hand, is not as optimistic. He has Ross slated to hit .232/.321/.405 with 11 HR, 30 R and 40 RBIs. What is baffling to me is that he has Ross appearing in 91 games in 2012. Ross has appeared in no more than 54 games since arriving in Atlanta. Further his projections of 30 runs scored is more than double what he has scored the past two season combined. The average, OBP and slugging % is much closer to his career marks than what we have been accustomed to in Atlanta, though. I still don’t think he will drop off that much. I would expect a season close to what he put up in 2011.

The Braves should still have one of the most productive catching team in the MLB this season. They will be relied upon to help mentor the young and talented rotation. They will also be one of the main offensive catalysts for the team.

Note: There were some technical issues with the baseball reference tables for McCann’s and Ross’ previous year’s statistics.

The good thing to hear is that the Braves will have a payroll of $94 million for the upcoming season. When you take $10 million off the top to pay Derek Lowe to pitch in Cleveland, that leaves the Braves with $84 million for the upcoming year. Current expenses puts the Braves $4 million away from reaching that $94 million overall payroll.

The Braves have been inactive on the free agent market this year because they haven’t had extremely large holes to fill, unless you consider the hole at shortstop. Pastornicky’s development has given the Braves an opportunity to avoid overpaying on the free agent market. They also have a different approach to free agency:

“In a way, I almost relish when one of our competitors goes in the free-agent market because it’s so inefficient and such a bad use of dollars,” he added. “You almost never get the value out of a free-agent market expense. We all have limited dollars to spend, so if someone in wasting those dollars in a competitive situation, it helps us.”

“I think that is part of what the quiet this winter reflects — a real confidence in our minor-league system,” he said. “I wouldn’t trade our young people for any team’s youth corps. I think the state of the franchise is extremely positive.”

This is not a bad philosophy. It doesn’t lead to an exciting offseason, but it does provide sound team management. The Braves’ signing of Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami hurt this team significantly. The effects are still lingering with the $10 million that the team will pay Lowe this year.

The Braves have stuck with the formula of success that built the dynasty that Bobby Cox led throughout the 1990s and much of the 2000s. They have been the best team in baseball to draft and develop pitching over the past 20 years. This success has been realized over the past three seasons with Tommy Hanson, Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado.

Their scouts have done a fantastic job in directing the Braves pitchers to acquire through trades and minor league signings as well. Jair Jurrjens, Eric O’Flaherty, Rafael Soriano and Arodys Vizcaino headline that group.

From a positional standpoint, the Braves have developed Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman.

The Braves are good at working with their strengths to put a competitive team on the field. That will not change. The payroll is stuck at $94 million for the forseeable future according to McGuirk.

One thing that the Braves will not be able to count on anytime soon is a lucrative TV deal. The previous owner, Turner Broadcasting/Time Warner, signed a 25 year television broadcasting deal before the sell of the team.

“I think we have an undervalued local rights [deal]. That being said, we inherited a deal that was done under a little over four years ago, before the sale, that lasts out through 25 years. So there is no opportunity for a different deal than the one we have. Every single set of games on the different networks that we are seen on [Fox Sports South, SportSouth and Peachtree TV] are all 25-year deals or thereabouts.”

McGuirk said the deals call for “cost-of-living type increases” each year, but contain no options for renegotiation.

“They were at-market deals when they were done, but the market has changed. We will have to look elsewhere for the increases that we will need in revenue to continue to build this franchise. It’s what the owners at the time decided to do, so we have to live with it. … It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not going to be these newer deals where there is cash up front.”

McGuirk said: “Let’s just say it won’t be an advantage.”

The Anaheim Angels, the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees have recently signed lucrative deals. The Angels and Rangers specifically have made huge splashes on the free agent market due to the TV deals. The Braves are essentially stuck for the foreseeable future. Get used to being a middle of the road team when it comes to payroll. As long as the Braves continue to draft well and develop players, they should remain competitive.

Unfortunately the ceiling on the payroll may make this team always be a player or two away from taking the next step. What are your thoughts?

This is officially a deal solidifying the fact that the Rockies and Braves will NOT be swapping Martin Prado. The Rockies traded Seth Smith a couple weeks ago to the Oakland A’s, which was the first signal that the deal would not happen. The acquisition of Scutaro is definitively a sign that Prado will not be playing in Colorado this upcoming year.

The rumored trade was supposedly Prado for Smith and at a minimum a center field prospect, though there were other reports that the Braves were asking for a pitching prospect. I am uncertain if they were asking for a pitching prospect, CF prospect and Smith, or just one prospect along with Smith.

The Braves, at this point, are much better off with Prado roaming left field. They have no better option and Prado makes the team better. The only way that I could see the team being better without Prado is for them to get a better player in left field. The trade market is not flushed with those players. From what I have seen, the price for players would be much more than the Braves are willing to pay.

As for Prado, I expect him to have a better year this season. If the Braves want to trade him, I think his value will be better after the first couple months of the season.