2012 NFL PLAYOFFS: New Orleans Saints Surging, Poised to Win at San Francisco 49ers
Coming off a 45-28 throttling of the Detroit Lions, the New Orleans Saints are now destined to meet with the San Francisco 49ers next week at Candlestick Park. Critics and Niner fans are already pointing out how the Saints have not won a playoff game on the road, citing last year’s loss against the Seattle Seahawks as an example. Even ESPN’s Chris Carter made the point in the Sunday morning pre-game show, not even 24 hours after the Saints victory. While the literal point may be true, there is a very big win every Saints supporter can cite to debunk this argument. The New Orleans Saints WON Super Bowl XLIV on the “road” against the Indianapolis Colts. While it wasn’t a true road game in the opponents home venue, it was technically a road game none the less. Add to that the fact it was outdoors and played on natural turf then all the theories on the Saints issues with the environment disappear.
The Saints actually have a match up which suits them this week against the 49ers. The Niners are tops against the run but rank 16th against the pass. We all know that Drew Brees and the pass game is the Saints strength and will be used heavily. You’d be hard pressed to find a better aerial attack right now. Brees has racked up 855 yards with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception his last two games and shows no signs of slowing down. His last outdoor road game against the Titans in week 14 saw him pass for 337 yards with 2 touchdowns and no picks. While the Titans are far from the 49ers defense, there are plenty of match ups to be had. The 49er linebackers and secondary have had issues against top tier tight ends, allowing Jason Witten 102 yards, Brandon Pettigrew 42 yards with a score, and Heath Miller 82 yards in week 15. Their prospects against Jimmy Graham, the leagues #2 statistical tight end are far from positive. This doesn’t even take into account the numerous other weapons and speed out wide for New Orleans. Kellen Clemens, a player who had not started a game since 2009 until this season, was able to pass for 226 yards with a score in week 17 against the 49ers. That was only his 3rd game since the 09′ season.
As hot as Drew Brees is, there should be little resistance in posting points. If the Saints are able to even put up a marginal lead early, the chances for Alex Smith and the offense to win a shootout do not bode well. The 49ers have only scored more than 30 points 3 times all season. The Saints have scored no less than 42 points in their last 4 games alone. While this will be far from a cake walk, the early chatter trying to pose an argument for a Saints loss should stop before they ever start. Statistics, momentum, and confidence are all on the Saints side. The questions should be directed at what the 49ers are going to do in order to stop the hottest offense in football.
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I’d have to disagree with you in regards to this being the perfect match-up for the Saints, it’s not! While the 49ers do rank 16th in yards given up through the air the 49ers do not give up passing touchdowns on defense ranking no.8 in that category, they don’t give up rushing touchdowns ranking no.1, the yards per pass attempt again the 49ers rank in top 10 coming in at no.9 and finally the secondary of the 49ers makes plays on the football ranking no.2 in interceptions.
49ers also have one of the better rushing offenses in the NFL, that does not bode well for the Saints as the 49ers can control the clock leaving Brees on the sidelines and wear out the Saints defense.
Okay, that is all fine and good. The saints may have lost to seatle last season but this is a whole new season. The saints are good at playing mind games with a team. The saints are able to play under pressure so, whatever the 49ers feel they need to do let them dot it. The saints are ready and they will come out on top. Please keep talking down on the saints we love being the underdog.
The Niners are the underdogs. Vegas odds wrote a three point spread in favor of the Saints; last I checked, ESPN commentators were basically all like, “F#%$ YEAH SAINTS!” So, no, *you* stop *your* chatter!
It surprises me that few analyses mention turnover differential stats, if you’re comparing opposing offenses and defenses. Since that’s the matchup here, it’s something to take into consideration, no? Okay. TD NO: -3. TD SF: +22. Another important stat: SF is near the top in time of possession (33 min). If I were Sean Payton, I’d be seriously worried about those numbers. San Francisco is a team with strengths that can easily capitalize on NO’s weaknesses. Force turnovers. Keep ball. Standard drill. Yeah, maybe not score a lot, but they’d be running Drew Brees off the field. That’s key with an explosive offense.
And your Superbowl argument is wishy-washy. Even you note that it wasn’t *really* an away game for NO. Candlestick is actually Niner home base — you know, where most of their fans are. Drew Brees will hear most of the noise; 95% of hostility will be directed at the Saints. That is true homefield advantage. Superbowl is a terrible analogy.
That Superbowl does not make all “theories about issues with the environment” disappear. That’s hyperbole. The Saints have still struggled in outdoor arenas this year. This is 2012, not 2010.
As posts have already mentioned, the points the Saints put up on the road are chopped in half compared to their home scores. All of their losses are on the road. Face it: NO simply aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Homefield advantage is sweet at this time of year. Look at what happened to the Steelers on Sunday in Denver. Did you see that sea of blue in the Meadowlands on Saturday? Oh yeah, all I heard during the last two quarters of the Lions game was “WHO DAT?!” Discounting true homefield advantage in a playoff game is a bad move.
And do not forget that sweet bye week of rest.
Not to say it won’t be a tough game. The Niners haven’t faced as good an offense as much as the Saints haven’t faced as good a defense. Could easily go either way. It will certainly be one of the best (if not the best) matchup this year. I look forward to it very, very much.
Good points Steve but my opinion is the 49ers stats are not dependable given they have yet to see an offense like this. The closest they have come was against the Lions (4th) Giants (5th) and Cowboys (7th) The Saints are best in the league and are more balanced than the teams mentioned. There is no argument about the run game as nobody can sniff the red zone on the ground against the 49ers. It will not at all be easy, and I could go deeper into analysis but am trying to keep it short and to the basic point in posts. Bottom line, it will be a great game but personally I lean towards the Saints. Good Luck!
Saints have put up 40+ points on a defense statistically superior (with a harder schedule as well) to the 49er’s. Make no mistake, the Saints are only limited by themselves, whether they are playing the 2nd ranked defense or the 32nd ranked defense they offensive production is only limited by their own execution and intensity.
The Saints play with their A game and they will put up 500 or so yards and 40+ points. If they make mental mistakes, miss protection assignments, commit unforced errors by turning the ball over and dropping passes, they will be around 350 or so yards and 20-27 points, depending on how efficient they are in the RZ. If this is the game they give, they will put themselves in jeopardy of losing to a quality opponant like SF.
But make no mistake, what the Saints do on offense is about THEM, not their opposition. Based on their history since Payton took over in 2006, they are more likely to play poorly against weaker teams and the inferior defenses, when they don’t have acute focus and drive. They normally play better against the better defenses and teams….
the Saints are a great offense but it is important to remember that their scoring average is almost 20 points lower on the road, and are going against a great defense that likes to take the ball away. It all depends on which 49er team shows up. They are full of players that have never felt the playoff pressure that comes about this time of year….reminds me of 1981