Rant Sports March Madness Bubble Watch: Xavier Musketeers

Published: 4th Mar 12 7:21 pm
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Kris Hughes
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Over the course of the next seven days, Rant Sports will feature eight teams which sit atop the March Madness bubble.

Some of these teams control their own destiny, and with strong finishes can make their way into the 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, while others will need intervention from other teams similarly situated.

Tonight’s focus is the Xavier Musketeers.

At 19-11 overall and 10-6 in Atlantic 10 Conference play, the Musketeers could be on the outside-looking-in for this year’s tourney without a very strong and authoritative finish.

Let’s take a look at the Musketeers’ resume:

Good Wins / Bad Losses

Xavier posted a few solid wins over good teams this season, the most valuable being an 82-70 victory over the No. 19 Vanderbilt Commodores on November 28, 2011. Bad losses on the Musketeers schedule include an 80-70 loss to conference foe LaSalle on January 4th, and a 22-point thrashing at the hands of Long Beach State around Christmastime.

Remaining Schedule / Opportunities

Xavier will next face the winner of the first-round Atlantic 10 Tournament matchup between Dayton and George Washington on Friday, March 9th. A win in this second-round matchup is an absolute for the Musketeers to stay in the tournament picture. An early exit from the A-10 tournament given the team’s weak 53 Ratings Power Index (RPI), and 44th-ranked Strength of Schedule could equal disaster for the Musketeers, and a likely NIT appearance.

A semi-final or finals run in the A-10 tourney, however, could be enough to help Xavier slide its way into a high seed in a strong region, or as a play-in participant to earn its way into the tournament.

Brand Name

Of the four teams that reside in the “Last Four Out” column, the Musketeers perhaps have the most brand name value. Xavier has been to the tournament every year since 2000, with three-consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearances coming in 2008, 2009, and 2010. If a final decision on whether Xavier gets a No. 67 or No. 68 slot comes down to brand cache versus another school, Xavier will get the nod.

Destiny Control?

In this case, Xavier controls its own destiny. A-10 tournament wins over the Dayton/GW winner and another team with tournament value like St. Louis or Temple could be the tipping point which gets X into the tournament. On the flipside, an early exit could keep them out of the tournament for the first time in 12 years.

Our Bet

Our bet on X is that they miss the 2012 tournament. An early loss to Dayton, who will knock off George Washington, will keep the Musketeers out of March Madness, pushing them to the NIT.

Coming tomorrow: Colorado State.

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