Madison Bumgarner ADP 74.92

During 2011, Bumgarner posted 8.40K’s/9, 2.02BB/9, and a GB% of 46%.  He plays on a good team and in a pitchers paradise.  Bumgarner could be the break out pitcher of the season a la Clayton Kershaw of 2011.  He may be the #3 on the Giants staff, but he will perform as a #1 on a fantasy staff

Matt Moore ADP 100.63

Moore dazzled during his regular season 9.1 inning cup of coffee and in the playoffs last year.  In his 9 innings he whiffed 15 batters for a 14.46K/9 K rate, to go along with 2.89BB/9 and a 42.9% GB rate.  His minor league K rate is 12.73K/9 and that should translate to around 10K’s/9 in the majors.  This will be the last time Moore will be underrated on draft day.  He’s a virtual lock for 200K’s in 2012 and should have a league average rate for BB/9 and GB%. 

Brandon Beachy ADP 116.44

Well the scouts really missed the boat on Beachy as he came out of nowhere to lead all SP in K rate had he had enough innings to qualify (10.74K/9 in 141.2 IP).  In 2011, he kept his walk rate to 2.92BB/9 to go with a GB% of 33.8%.  He is a fly ball pitcher and is prone to the long ball (9.8% HR/FB); however, he should still put up quality numbers in 2012 and be a great fantasy #2 starter.  The only question he has left to answer is durability.

John Danks ADP 193.02

Most people would say Danks’ 2011 was a step back in the development curve.  Despite his 8-12 record, Danks posted quality peripheral number in 2011.  7.13K/9, 2.43BB/9 and 43.8% are all right around league average.  The 4.33 ERA last year was largely the result of a high BABIP (.313).  However, it should regress closer to his career BABIP of .290 in 2012, resulting in a lower ERA.  It’s hard to believe you could find a #2 quality starter in the 16^th round, but thats where Danks is currently being selected.

Jonathon Niese ADP 221.71

Out of this list of players, Niese suppressed value baffles be the most.  Maybe it is because the state of the Mets franchise that he’s getting over looked?  Savvy drafters should look past the dysfunctional Mets and look for opportunities deep in the draft.  Niese posted rates of 7.89K/9, 2.52BB/9, and a GB of 51.5%.  Bottom line, he’s missing bats at an above average rate, and when the batters do make contact over half the hits are on the ground.  That is a recipe for success.  While his Win Loss record may be affected be the Mets current state, his underline numbers suggest solid #2 production in 2012.

There are many more option out there to be found.  Do your research; look for pitchers that miss bats at an above average rate, keep the walks in check, and induce ground balls and you will always get solid production from your rotation.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

bleacherreport.com

After winning a rotation spot out of Spring Training, Pineda quickly put the MLB on alert with his powerful fastball in 2011.  I have to say, I was truly blown away while watching him pitch at times last year.  You know a pitcher is special when the batter knows what is coming and still can’t hit it.  I quickly became a believer in his awesomeness and even bought some Pineda memorabilia that’s now hanging in my office.  Some commentators were even saying that his ceiling was higher than that of fellow ace King Felix.  But as the year went on, we began to notice some flaws in his game.  Then out of nowhere it seemed, a block buster trade happened with New York.  The trade involved another top prospect, catcher Jesus Montero.  With the trade from cozy SAFCO field to the fish bowl the Yankees play in, what can we expect from Michael Pineda in his sophomore year?

With his fastball/slider combination, Pineda baffled hitters.  He struck out batters at a terrific rate (9.11K’s/9IP) while keeping his walks down (2.89BB/9IP).  Those are two of the attributes to look for when evaluating pitchers.  He finish the season with 173K’s, 55BB, to go along with a 3.74 ERA.  The third skill to look for when evaluating pitchers is an above average ground ball rate.  And that’s where this Honey Moon ends, the league average (LA) GB rate is 44.5%, Pineda’s GB rate of 36.3% just doesn’t cut it.  Also, Pineda is an extreme fly ball pitcher (44.8% vs. LA of 36.0%) and that plays really well at SAFCO field, but I have my doubts at Yankee Stadium.  During the 2011 campaign, Pineda also developed some telling splits.  Pineda pitched to a 4.40 ERA away from SAFCO and a 2.92 at while at SAFCO.  He also had troubles with lefties (3.99 ERA) as opposed to righties (3.48ERA).  The competition and the spot light also get amped up in the AL East.  For example, the teams in the AL east average 4.8 runs per game as opposed to AL west team average of 4.2 runs per game. 

The splits, both home and road and lefty vs. righty, plus the offensive atmosphere that is the AL East have put me on guard when it comes to Pineda’s 2012 value and beyond.   Pineda definitely has the raw tools to succeed as a competent #2 behind CC in NY; however, I would temper my expectations after coming off a superb rookie year.  Currently Pineda is being drafted around the 96.37 spot and is the average 26^th pitcher off the board.  Expect a dip in K rate, an increase in walks, and an increase in home runs allowed resulting in a higher than desired ERA.  As for 2012, look for a 13W-10L, 173K’s, 66BB, with a 4.62 ERA.  Not the step forward expected after his break out rookie season. 

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

Andrew McCutchen ADP 26.58

This will probably be the last time you can draft this budding star outside the second round.  Last year was a hiccup on another wise ascending career path.  McCutchen posted a .259 BA, but it was largely BABIP driven.  His career average BABIP is .309, however last year it dipped to .291 resulting in a lower than expected batting average.  McCutchen gets on base at a nice clip, career average .365 OBP, so he should have plenty of scoring and stolen base opportunities.  He posted a career high in HR last year with 23 with an ISO of .198.  He’s on the cusp of a 30HR/30SB season with a .280 avg.

Ryan Braun ADP 28.30

It’s hard to believe the reigning NL MVP can be a value play, but the looming 50 game suspension seems to be weighing heavily on the minds of drafters.  No doubt that his value will be affected by the loss of games, however put your doubts aside.  If you were to pro-rate his 2011 season to 112 games, his stats would have been 23HR, 76 Runs, 77 RBI and 23 SB to along with a .332 average.  Not bad production from the 28^th pick in the fantasy draft.  While no player has ever won the arbitration case for PED’s Braun stands as good of chance if any.  I give a 10% that he is waved of the suspension for medical reasons.  If he beats the system, you could have yourself a top 5 pick at a third round price.

Carl Crawford ADP 40.54

Moving to the big time and landing the big contract coupled with injuries seemed to prove cumbersome to the usual fantasy stud.  His average was brought down by a low BABIP .299 (career average .328).  The runs and the stolen bases was the result of the lowest OBP of his career .289 (career average .333).  Well, that’s not the Carl Crawford profile we all know.  Look for a bounce back in batting average and on-base percentage in 2012, resulting in more runs and stolen bases.  The Crawford of Tampa Bay will probably never return, but I still believe he is capable of quality production.  Pencil him in for .285/.330/.430 with 15 HR, 84 Runs, 70 RBI with 30 SB.

Desmond Jennings ADP 55.91

This Ray got off to a hot start before cooling in Aug/Oct.  In his rookie campaign he hit .259/.356/.449 with 10 HR, 44 Runs, and 25 RBI with 20 SB.  He showed great plate discipline with a walk rate of 10.8% in 2011.  The average may not be above .270 but he has on-base skills the runs and stolen bases should come in by the bushels.  Draft him and you can all but guarantee 100 runs with 40 plus stolen bases.

B.J. Upton ADP 67.42

Looks like the Rays out field is full of value.  B.J. Upton, while he has never reached the expectations bestowed upon him early in his career, provides above average stolen bases and power out of the CF position.  Last year he cracked 23 HR to go along with 36 SB.  Upton will strike out a ton, but he also walks at a high rate (11.1% in 2011).  With his solid OBP he will provide 30 plus stolen bases with a gaggle of runs and RBI.  Don’t forget this is B.J.’s contract year.  I’d put 30HR/30SB value on him heading into 2012.

Click here for 6-10

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

Jayson Werth ADP 99.95

Werth saw his 2011 season get off to a horrible start.  He hit .220 through the first 3 months of the season and finished with a .232/.330/.389 line in 2011.  The decline in batting average was the result off a .286 BABIP; the lowest Werth has ever posted in his career.  Look for a bounce back closer to his career average BABIP of .324, resulting in a higher BA.  Werth also saw a drop in his ISO rating during 2011 as fell to .157.  Look for a power surge in 2012 as his ISO should come closer to his career ISO rating of .200.  Werth should be in line for 20HR/20SB season with .260-.280 average and a healthy OBP. 

Jason Heyward ADP 107.61

The young Braves star dealt with a bevy of issues in 2011.  Injuries, questions of work ethic, and a late season playing time battle with Jose Constanza.  Well, forget about 2011, it’s 2012 and I believe the stage is set for a break out year for Heyward.  For a complete breakdown of Jason Heyward’s 2012 value, read the article I wrote earlier this year:  Jason Heyward’s value in 2012.

Chris Young ADP 124.96

You are never going to get a high batting average from the smooth fielding CF.  The knock on Young is his strike out rate, 21.1% in 2011 for a total of 139 K’s.  However, let’s turn the focus on what he does well.  His career walk rate is 10% (12.1% in 2011), he’s averaged 23 HR/20 SB during his five year career (excluding the 30 games cup of coffee in 2006).  His career high in HR came back in 2007 with 32, couple that with his career high of 28 SB in 2010 and we definitely have the potential for a 30HR/30SB if Young puts in all together for 2012 season. If you are not turned off by a .240 BA, then at the least, you can expect a 20HR/20SB season with 30HR/30SB for the upside.  

Peter Bourjos 135.31

The speedy CF for the Halo’s really caught on fire late in the season.  During August, September and October, Bourjos hit 9 HR, 34 Runs, with 22 RBI to go along with 8 SB.  He finished the season with a .271/.327/.438 line to go with 12 HR, 72 Runs, and 43 RBI with 22 SB. Bourjos has got speed for days and there is even some pop in his bat (.155 ISO minor league career).  The main knock on Bourjos his inability to take a walk, last year he only walked 5.8% of the time (career rate of 5.1%).  Despite the low walk rate, you can expect double digit home runs with 30 plus steals from the speedy CF in 2012.

Logan Morrison 148.63

With the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins lineup, both LOMO and Mike Stanton should be in line for improved RBI totals.  Morrison’s .247 BA should be due for a slight rebound to the .260-.270 range as it was depressed by a .265 BABIP in 2011.  Despite the low average in 2011, Morrison showed great plate discipline by walking 10.3% last year leading to a .330 OBP.   Last year he hit 23 HR with an ISO of .221, so it seems that LOMO’s power is developing faster than the Marlins had hoped.  Look for an increase in home run totals and RBI production from Morrison in 2012.  I’m thinking 24-28 HR with 90-100 RBI for this year.

Remember check back tomorrow for 1-5.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

Paul Goldschmidt ADP 147.53

The power hitting prospect for the D-Backs showed up in August and did not disappoint.  Goldschmidt hit 38 HR, 120 RBI and 112 Runs across AA/MLB in 2011.  He has posted great walk rates throughout his minor league career also (17.9% in 2011 AA).  He should be the opening day 1B for the Snakes come April.  Come on, bringing in Lyle Overbay to push him is like feeding a Pinky to your pet Python. Won’t last long and everyone is just happy when it’s over.  Look for 30 plus HR and around 100 RBI/100 Runs with a hand full of stolen bases in 2012.

Brandon Belt ADP 206.32

Well, the Giants really screwed the pooch with their young prospect last year.  2011 resulted in an up and down year for Belt. No literally, he was called up and sent down 3 times in 2011.  Once he was up for good, he had a playing time battle with Aubrey Huff.  In 187 AB’s last year, Belt hit 9 HR with 18 RBI, 21 Runs, and 3 stolen bases.  If the playing time issues subside and the Giants stick with a plan of LF duty with a couple of starts per week at 1B on Huffs off days, Belt’s value should soar in 2012.  With a minor league career walk rate of 17.7% he should get on base plenty even if he’s not hitting for a high average.  Look for healthy OBP, 20-25 HR, 80 Runs, and 75 RBI with double digit steals 2012.

Yonder Alonso ADP 229.71

Alonso was the center piece in the Matt Latos trade and allowed the Padres to send fellow prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs in exchange for more pieces.  Yonder has the bat to succeed at the MLB level, but the defense is suspect, good thing this is fantasy.  While PETCO is likely to suppress some of his offensive production, Alonso does show power to all fields and he should maintain a solid line.  With a career minor league ISO rate of .152 and a walk rate of 13.1%, he should be a lock for 16-22 HR with a solid OBP.   His counting stats will be lower than the other two mentioned in this post, but he should at least put up league average counting stats of 80 RBI and 69Runs.

There is plenty of depth at the first base position.  Don’t get in the mindset that you need to draft a top 10 first baseman.  Some other honorable mentions are: Justin Smoak ADP (220.22), Kendrys Morales (ADP 220.07), and Ike Davis (ADP 176.96) coming off last year’s injury.  Each should offer league average production at the least.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

blog.seattlepi.com

Every year there are a couple of players that simply don’t produce up to expectations.  Whether it’s due to injuries or off the field distractions it can derail a player’s career path.  However, we must not forget the player’s true skill set when looking for the bounce back as it paints a clear picture to future success.  Today we will look at Justin Smoak of the Mariners.  I’m hoping this lost Mariner has found his coordinates.

The Mariners acquired Smoak via the Cliff Lee trade in 2010 and he has been penciled into the starting lineup ever since.  In 2011, Smoak battled injuries and grieved the loss of his father.  Those two issues really put a damper on his season as he went on to hit .234/.323/.410 with 15 HR, 55 RBI, and 39 Runs.  Not what you would expect out of the 13^th ranked prospect in 2010. Well, it’s time to wipe the slate clean.  It’s 2012, and I think Smoak is going to have a bounce back campaign.  Smoak has posted incredible walk rates of 14.4%(avg.) throughout his minor/major league career.  In 2011, he walked 11.2% of the time, so I would expect that number to come up a little to the 12-13% in 2012.  Another attribute to his game is his power.  During his AA/AAA days, his average ISO was .180.  We all know that SAFCO Field is not a hitter’s paradise, but I would expect Smoak’s power to return in 2012.  I’m looking for 22-25 HR out of the switch hitting 1B/DH option.  There are three skills that never slump, Patience, Power and Defense.  Smoak’s got two of those skills nailed.   Let’s not forget the M’s lineup should be greatly improved in 2012.  Hopefully, Ichro returns to form, Dustin Ackley picks up where he left off, and Jesus Montero shows the bat that all the scouts expect him to have.  The M’s line up should look like this come opening day: Ichro, Ackley, Montero, and then Smoak.  There should be plenty of ducks on the pond for Smoak to drive in during 2012.  This year I’m looking for a bounce back with a .260/.350/.450 line to go along with 23HR, 80 RBI, and 70 Runs.  Meaning he will great out produce his lowly ADP of 220.07, 13.2%.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

Zack Cozart ADP 243.42, 68.2%

The 26 year old SS finally got the call up to the big leagues last year, but was sidelined with an elbow injury eleven games into his rookie campaign.  In two AAA seasons (2010/2011), Cozart hit .282/.333/.441 with 24 HR and 39 SB in 876 AB’s.  Cozart has posted a solid ISO (.144) rating throughout his minor league career and belted 17 HR in the 2010 season.  Cozart looks to have the inn on the job once spring training opens up.  He is a great depth option at SS in 2012 and could even break into your fantasy line up with his power /speed combo.  A short stop that hits .265 with 15 HR and 15 SB is pretty valuable.

Tyler Pastornicky 313.30, 1.2%

The Braves seem content to enter the season with Pastornicky as their everyday shorts stop.  Pastornicky went through AA/AAA last year totaling 7 HR, 65 R, 45RBI and 27 SB.  He has a little bit of pop in his bat with an A+/AA/AAA ISO of .115, but where he is going to make his hay is on the base paths.  He should easily approach 20 steals in 2012 with 6-8 HR.  This 22 year old SS makes for a solid depth play and could step in and produce should one of the “safer” options falls of a cliff or get injured.

Eduardo Nunez ADP 278.15, 0.9%

The super utility man for the Yankees has some great value, especially if you decide to draft Jeter or A-Rod.  He has great position eligibility with SS/3B and in a partial season last year, 309 AB’s, Nunez hit .265/.313/.385 with 5 HR and 22 SB’s.  Imagine if he could get 500-600 AB’s in 2012, you are looking at 8-12 HR 35-40 SB short stop.  Nunez should improve his BABIP (.287) from last year leading to a higher average, so a .280-.290 is definitely a possibility.

If on draft day you decide wait on short stop, don’t worry, there are some Gems to be uncovered.  Any one of these options could show up in a big way during the 2012 season.  If I were to rank this group, I would go Cozart, Nunez, and then Pastornicky.

All ADP position information obtained from mockdraftcentral.com

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter at @baseballrantman

Darwin Barney ADP 332.95

Barney got the starting gig early last year and he posted a nice line in his rookie year .276/.317/.356 to go along with 2HR and 66 Runs.  Sadly, I believe that is about as good as it’s going to get for Barney.  He has almost no extra base power as he posted .078 ISO.  Another limit Barney has is his inability to draw a walk.  Last year he posted a 3.9% walk rate.  The only plus tool that Barney brings to the table is BA.  Barney is definitely one of those players that are better in real life than as a fantasy option.

Recommendation: He’s not worth drafting

Dustin Ackley ADP 135.89

Last year Ackley got the call to come up and hopefully boost the anemic Mariners offence.  Well the M’s offence did not get any better, but Ackley put together a solid partial season.   He posted a .273/.348/.417 line to go along with 6 HR, 39R, 36 RBI in 333 AB’s.  What really sets Ackley apart from the rest of this young crop of second baseman is his discipline at the plate.  He walked 10.6% of the time last year, which gave him a solid OBP of .348.  Ackley’s also got some pop in the bat .144 ISO in 2011.  The only thing that’s going against the young second baseman is the park he plays in, and the M’s offensive woes.  Ackley could post double digit HR totals, with a healthy OBP leading to many runs and SB’s.

Recommendation:  Definitely worth a roster spot, grab him in the last third of your draft

Jemile Weeks ADP 154.01

This option easily gives you the best stolen base threat at the position.  He also posted a nice line in 2011 hitting .303/.340/.421 with 22 SB.  The walk rate leaves a little to be desired (4.8% in 2011) as it would lead to much more scoring and stolen base opportunities if he could raise it to 7% or 8%.  Weeks posted an ISO rating of .118 with 2HR in 2011.  It looks like he’s at least got some gap power as he has 26 doubles in 2011.  A 30 stolen base season with 80-100 runs is easily in reach for this youngster.

Recommendation: Definitely worth a roster spot, grab him in the last third of your draft

Jason Kipnis ADP 164.06

Ah, we save the best for last.  Kipnis burst onto the scene last year in late July and in 136 AB’s he hit 7 HR with 24 runs, 19 RBI, and 5 SB.  His triple slash line was equally impressive .272/.333/.507. Kipnis brings 20-25 HR power to the position with an ISO of .235 in 2011. To go along with the power, Kipnis showed good plate discipline as a rookie with a 7.3% BB.  Kipnis brings legit pop, speed, and a good approach to the plate, and I can definitely see him as a threat to put up a 20/20 season in 2012.

Recommendation:  Make this guy an earlier than thought selection on draft day.  Target him in the early middle rounds of your draft

If I was to rank them in according to how I believe there production will be in 2012, it would go like this: Kipnis by a wide margin, Jemile Weeks, Dustin Ackley, then Darwin Barney.  The only banana peel you need to watch out for on this list is Barney.  Hope this helps you come draft day.

All ADP position information from mockdraftcentral.com

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

Lefties to play vs. righties

Nyjer Morgan ADP 235.75, 6.5% drafted

For our first example, we will shift into “beast mode” and take a closer look at Nyjer Morgan.  You might not even have to use a draft pick on this speedy lefty.  In 2011, Morgan pounded righties to the tune of a .316/.370/.439 with an impressive wRC+125 (100 is average).  That weighted run creation (wRC+) number is in some great run producing company like Ian Kinsler 128, Mark Teixeira 124, and Kevin Youkilis 126.

Seth Smith ADP 222.45, 67% drafted

He’s in another lefty that hits righties at an elite clip.  Last year vs. RH pitching he posted .300/.366/.527 with 14HR, 47 RBI, with a wRC+ of 130.  Recently he just got traded to the Oakland A’s so playing time should be abundant.  Again, just don’t play him vs. a lefty.  Last year he hit .217/.272/.304 with a wRC+ 48 vs. southpaws.

Carlos Pena ADP 224.38, 75% drafted

This newly signed Ray is another great option vs. RH pitching.  Last year vs. righties he hit .255/.388/.504 with wRC+ 140.  Pena slugged 21 of his 28 HR vs. right handed pitching.  Remember this about Pena, 45% of the time he is both going to hit a HR, draw a walk, or strike out and you will increase your odds of production if you only play him vs. righties

By playing these players only vs. Righty’s you can get elite production.  Considering the league is 64% right handed they’ll be in your line up more than there on your bench.  Check back, I’ll be posting another list for Right handed batters vs. Left handed pitching.

All ADP info is from Mockdraftcentral.com

Aaron Price, follow me on @baseballtantman