Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1

The AFC South
Houston Texans: 5-1
Tennessee Titans: 15-1
Indianapolis Colts: 30-1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 50-1

Are you freakin’ kidding me? What genius decided the Tennessee Titans have the same chance of winning the AFC as the Chiefs? The teams were comparable a year ago, the Chiefs winning seven games while the Titans won eight. But Kansas City, from the outset of the season, lost a Pro Bowl safety in Eric Berry, a top rusher in Jamaal Charles and a quality tight end in Tony Moeaki. Then Matt Cassell got hurt in the middle of the year and the offense never got a rhythm going.

I don’t mean to knock Tennessee—I really don’t, I think they’ve got a good coach in Mike Munchak and I can certainly see them making the playoffs. In fact, if you wanted to argue that the Titans have a consistency that makes it more likely they’d make the postseason than Kansas City, I could see your point. But we’re talking about who can be a real dark horse to make the Super Bowl and that means an upside beyond the playoff borderline. Kansas City has that in a much higher degree than Tennessee.

The Chiefs Vs. The AFC: Super Bowl Odds
AFC East
AFC North
AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1

The AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 5-1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-1
Cincinnati Bengals: 13-1
Cleveland Browns: 50-1

Throughout the rest of the AFC (see the links below) I’ve found at least one item that’s outrageous. I don’t see that in the AFC North, although I think each team is a little bit overrated, at least measured against Kansas City. The Ravens were already getting old on defense with Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs, and now the latter has a torn ACL. Pittsburgh has started the process of rebuilding the trenches, but Kansas City is better on both lines. Nonetheless, while I think the Chiefs would win this division, the sustained success the Ravens & Steelers have had deserves some respect and their odds reflect that. I don’t think Cincinnati is better than a healthy Kansas City team—one with Eric Berry in the secondary, Jamaal Charles in the backfield and Tony Moeaki at tight end—but hey, the Bengals made the playoffs a year ago. And I don’t think you can set a number high enough on Cleveland, but 50-1 is high as Vegas is going with anybody at this point.

Kansas City may have had their last playoff season in 2010 stopped by Baltimore, but if the Chiefs can get to that level again in 2012, no one in this division will stand in their way.

The Chiefs Vs. The AFC: Super Bowl Odds
AFC East
AFC South
AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1

The AFC East
New England Patriots: 3-1
New York  Jets: 11-1
Miami Dolphins: 18-1
Buffalo Bills: 22-1

Let me ask you this—let’s take a Chiefs’ team that won seven games in 2011, and gets safety Eric Berry, running back Jamaal Charles and tight end Tony Moeaki all back from injuries that cost each basically the entire season. Then let’s take a Jets team that won eight games in 2011, got worse as the season went on thanks to dissension and has a self-manufactured quarterback controversy in which one above-average quarterback seems to have lost the team and another below-average quarterback has an almost mystical ability to make people believe in him. How would you look at these two teams and determine the Jets have a better chance to win the AFC than the Chiefs? New York bias is one possibility—Las Vegas sportsbooks get a lot of action from financially well-off travelers from the East, especially the Big Apple, and that money moves the number. But there’s no good football reason for the disparity, unless you’re still living in 2009-10.

The Chiefs vs. The AFC: Super Bowl Odds
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West

Denver Broncos: 3-1
San Diego Chargers: 8-1
Kansas City Chiefs: 15-1
Oakland Raiders: 22-1

Since we  just looked at the odds to win the AFC West specifically I’m not surprised that Denver and San Diego are seen as head-and-shoulders above Kansas City and Oakland, even if I don’t necessarily agree with the premise. But that Denver is considered 3-1 absolutely floors me. Check the links to the odds on other divisions and you see that the addition of Peyton Manning has put Denver as a co-favorite with New England. This is crazy, as is the notion that the Broncos are five times more likely than the Chiefs to have a championship run.

We have no idea if Manning will be healthy. If he is healthy, this is still an 8-8 team—and probably worse, given that without the run of miracle finishes in 2011 the record is probably closer to 5-11. And if they are good, and he is healthy, Manning lost head-to-head battles with Tom Brady anyway. At every level, making a Denver a co-favorite makes no sense.

San Diego’s odds look reasonable, although my lack of confidence in this team’s defensive discipline and offensive line are high enough that I have a hard time buying into the notion they’re nearly twice as likely as Kansas City to reach a Super Bowl. On the flip side, I’m not sold Kansas City is that much better than Oakland.

What’s true within the AFC West is true in the AFC as a whole. This division, more than any other, can go a lot of ways and there are rewards for those who get out ahead of the curve and guess right.

The Chiefs Vs. The AFC: Super Bowl Odds
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South

Denver Broncos: 7-5
San Diego Chargers: 7-5
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-2
Oakland Raiders: 6-1

My first thought in looking at this is that Denver’s a bad buy right now. We have no idea what Peyton Manning’s health will be like, how he’ll interact with the Broncos receivers, how long it will take everything to get up to speed and…well, there’s just a whole lot of uncertainty. I’m not saying they can’t win the division, but I see them as one of the group, rather than a co-favorite.

San Diego presents a more interesting case, given the quality of their draft and the presence of Philip Rivers. But the reality is this—the team’s discipline in basic areas like blocking and tackling got worse right after Norv Turner replaced Marty Schottenheimer for the 2007 season, got temporarily restored on defense when Ron Rivera took over as defensive coordinator and rescued the 2008 season and then disappeared again when Rivera went to Carolina. Turner is an excellent offensive mind and his team is another one I can certainly see winning the division. Heck, I might even pick them in September. But do they deserve to be with Denver, head-and-shoulders above? No way.

If you believe this division is well-balanced—and I certainly do—that makes the Chiefs and Raiders value buys right now. Kansas City had a good offseason and is going to get running back Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and tight end Tony Moeaki back from injury. The Raiders would be a stronger pick if they weren’t going through yet another coaching change, but they’ve got a good quarterback in Carson Palmer, a good running game, and a tough defensive front seven.

Kansas City is the best buy on the board—the team they have coming back would win the division more than once every five years if you played this out on a simulation and if you believe that, then the odds say the Chiefs are a value bet. If you want to hedge, you can take both Kansas City and Oakland in equal amounts and as long as one of them wins the West, you turn a profit. Either way, the AFC West is a wide-open race and the Las Vegas numbers don’t reflect that.

Kansas City has Jon Asomoah and Ryan Lilija at guard, which isn’t a desperate situation, but it’s still a position that upgrades are going to be required over the next year or two. Lilja is on the wrong side of 30. Asomah is still developing, but is far from a sure thing. Allen gives the Chiefs some insurance if the latter doesn’t work out, and if nothing else is the heir apparent to the former.

The real question then is whether Allen can succeed at a position he hasn’t played at a high level. Tackle and guard require different skills, in that the guards have to be light afoot to pull out on traps and sweeps. At the NFL level the difference between the positions isn’t quite as dramatic, because the left tackle has to have quick feet to protect the edge, but the basic distinction between one position being about agility and footwork, and the other being about classic physical football still exists.

Allen’s scouting report tells us he has agile feet and he’s quick off the snap, with an ability to adjust his body as the play goes on. That will serve him well in his new position, and we’ll see if he follows in the footsteps of center Rodney Hudson, who spent a year on the bench in 2011 before being moved to the top of the depth chart a year later.

It’s not that some of the Chiefs didn’t raise an eyebrow or lead to outright criticism. I think signing Peyton Hillis was a waste of time and could’ve been better addressed through the draft or a lower-profile free agent move. I would’ve liked to have seen them draft a center.  I’m split on the first-round pick of Dontari Poe. But on the flip side, one bad free agent signing doesn’t define an entire offseason, there’s a strong case that Kansas City is doing the right thing in giving young Rodney Hudson a shot at the center job and being split on Poe means just that—I can see the case for him as much as I can see the case against.

Kansas City made solid moves in adding Stanford Routt to the secondary, I liked their selections in the second and third round of the draft, beefing up the offensive line. Brady Quinn was a nice addition as a backup quarterback, and even the late round draft picks have some promise, particularly at wide receiver.

But the defining moment of the offseason came with the  free agent signing of offensive tackle Eric Winston. In one fell swoop, the Chiefs addressed a huge area of need in an area that couldn’t be neglected—a team with designs on running the ball can’t have a problem going off-tackle—and they did it with a proven, high-impact player.

More than any other sport the NFL has interchangeable parts in a lot of positions and success is ultimately determined by a small number of high-quality impact players. The Chiefs got the one they needed the most in Winston. That alone makes the offseason a success.

WINNER: San Diego Chargers—I really didn’t want to give the Chargers the “winner” nod, if nothing else, because it seemed to easy to jump on the media bandwagon. And I think the Kansas City Chiefs have a case based on a solid showing in the middle rounds. But trying to evaluate a draft less than a week after its conclusion means we should give disproportionate influence to the known commodity, which is the first round selection. And San Diego’s pick of Melvin Ingram is as close to can’t miss is there is at the 18^th pick of the first round. Ingram is a linebacker whose strength is rushing the passer and he’ll be a perfect fit in San Diego’s 3-4 scheme that relies on aggressiveness off the edge. Ingram does a solid job defending the run as well.

Kansas City fans can point to Dontari Poe, the defensive tackle who filled a key need, but Poe was a big risk pick. If we have this conversation three years from now, maybe Poe leads up a deep class for the Chiefs. For now, what we know is that San Diego filled a need, got a high-quality player and without as much risk. And on top of it, San Diego’s third-round pick in LSU safety Brandon Taylor gives their rookie class some depth.

LOSER: Denver Broncos—The easy way out here is to say Oakland, since they didn’t draft until the 95^th slot, thanks primarily to the trade for Carson Palmer. If we look at the rookie class strictly on its face, then I’d agree it’s Oakland. But do we give the Raiders any credit for using the value of their picks to solidify themselves with a veteran quarterback? I think we should, so based on that Denver got the least value from their picks of any team in the AFC West.

I’m not sold on Derek Wolfe at defensive tackle, their second-round pick and Brock Osweiler, the developmental pick at quarterback, was inconsistent in college and with a decent supporting cast around him at Arizona State. I’m not saying that all is lost—Ronnie Hillman was a nice pick for the backfield in the third round, but when a future third-down back is your high point, that’s a sign the draft didn’t go well. And that’s how I see Denver’s.

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Detroit is reeling right now. Since leaving Kansas City almost two weeks ago, the Tigers have lost eight of ten. You can attribute to that to playing the Rangers and Yankees on the road in that timeframe and with a 2-5 showing for Detroit in those seven games, you’d be mostly right. Mostly—because it ignores that Detroit lost three straight to Seattle at home, and gave up 19 runs to a lousy offensive team in the process.  The Tigers have some significant pitching problems right now whenever Justin Verlander is not on the mound. Over the past eight games, the team ERA is 5.28, one of the worst in the American League. Doug Fister, the team’s #2 starter is still on the disabled list and manager Jim Leyland is going to give reliever Duane Below his first chance at a start in tonight’s opener.

The Tiger’s pitching troubles come at a time when the Royals’ offense is starting to click. Billy Butler’s been hot out of the gate, while Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas have to officially be on the hot list right now. The KC bullpen has been effective, with Ned Yost making full use of all his arms. Finally, if you look at the pitching matchups, you see Luke Hochevar, fresh off a solid outing in Cleveland set to face Below tonight. Then its Jonathan Sanchez paired up against Detroit’s Rick Porcello. If the Royals are going to get the kind of hot streak they need to nudge closer back to .500, is it unreasonable to say they need to win games like tonight and Tuesday night if they’re going to do it?

Kansas City does need to come out strong these next two nights, because Wednesday’s matinee finale features Verlander on the mound, the surest cure to pitching ills there is. It would be nice for the Royals to be playing with house money in that game—at least far as this series goes—and it’s fair to think they can pull it off.

As expected in the series preview, the hitters were in control and Kansas City had a lot of reasons to be happy with their attack. Can we say beyond a doubt now that Alex Gordon’s April slump is in the books, as the month wraps up? The leftfielder had three hits and two walks in the two games, including a home run and a stolen base. Billy Butler continues to eat up whatever pitching comes at him, going 5-for-9 with a home run, Mike Moustakas had three hits, including one that escaped Target Field. And while Eric Hosmer struggled, let’s give a little shoutout to shortstop Alcides Escobar. Hitting in the 9-hole, Escobar chipped away for three singles and stole a base. If Kansas City can get anything remotely resembling that kind of work from the bottom of the order, they’ll score a lot of runs this season.

Kansas City’s failure to get a series win can really be reduced to a problem of rain and Bruce Chen. Sunday’s starter failed to get out of the third inning and gave up six runs. But Nate Adcock did some very good work out of the pen, going 5.1 IP and giving up just one more run. If the Royals get that kind of long relief, they’ll steal a few wins in a spots like this during the course of the season. And in Friday’s game, the pen combined for five innings and gave up only two runs.

So though the series ended 1-1, the Royals have a right to feel like they played pretty good baseball. A skeptic can say it was just the Twins and given the record that’s fair enough. Now we need to see if Kansas City can keep it going in Detroit starting tonight.

Follow me on Twitter @DanFlaherty