San Diego has a week six home game and a week 11 road battle against the defending AFC West champion Denver Broncos whom San Diego was 1-1 against last season.  Although both teams finished their 2011 season at 8-8, Denver added one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in Peyton Manning.  It will be interesting to see how Manning plays after numerous surgeries on his neck, which caused him to miss the entire 2011 season.  San Diego’s toughest stretch of the season should come in weeks 12-14.  They will start of in weeks 12 and 13 with home games against the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals.  Baltimore finished the 2011 season at 12-4 while Cincinnati was 9-7.  Baltimore was 4-4 on the road while Cincinnati was 5-3 away from home.  San Diego dominated the Ravens 34-14 last season in San Diego, but I expect the outcome to be closer this season.  San Diego will face the 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in week 14.  The Steelers were 7-1 at home in 2011.

San Diego finished their 2011 season with a 5-3 home record and a 3-5 road record.  San Diego did not have a great road record, but if they can reassert their dominance at home, the team can live with it.  The Chargers were 8-0 at home in 2006, 7-1 in 2007, 6-2 in 2009 and 6-2 in 2010.  San Diego started off the 2010 season with a 2-5 overall record and finished the season at 9-7 which was one win away from making the playoffs.  The Chargers lost their division last year based on a tiebreaker after they started the season 4-1 and finished at 8-8.  The Chargers finished their 2006 season on a 10 game winning streak, but lost their only playoff game.  They also finished 2009 on an 11 game winning streak, but lost their only playoff game.  San Diego needs to avoid their proverbial nap in 2012 to make the playoffs and do damage if they get in.

Gates was hindered by a foot injury the last two seasons, but led all tight ends in receiving yards, was fourth in receptions and TD receptions during the 2009 season when he played in all 16 games.  The Lightning Bolts need Gates to stay healthy with the loss of Vincent Jackson in free agency to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  San Diego had the number one offense in 2010 when Jackson only appeared in five games, but it was a group effort as Legedu Naanee was Jackson’s primary replacement and he only had 23 receptions for 371 yards and one touchdown.  Robert Meachem will definitely be more productive than that this season.

There was an article on the NFL’s website questioning whether or not Gates deserved to make a Pro Bowl last season.  Gates had 64 receptions, 778 yards and seven touchdowns which placed him 10th, 10th and fourth in these respective categories among tight ends. He was on pace for 79 receptions, 957 yards and nine TD receptions, which would have placed him fifth, third and third among tight ends.  If Gates can stay healthy, I expect him to have a big season.

San Diego’s week three game will be against the Atlanta Falcons in San Diego.  The Falcons gave up 26 sacks last season, which ranked sixth in that category.  San Diego’s prime time Sunday night game in week five against former Charger Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints could be an old fashioned shoot out.  New Orleans’ offensive line only surrendered 24 sacks last season, which was second in the league. San Diego’s week 10 road battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be against a team that allowed the 10th fewest sacks. Even though the offensive line did their job, Josh Freeman was second in the NFL with 22 interceptions in 15 games. San Diego’s week 13 home game against the Cincinnati Bengals will see them face an offensive line that allowed only 25 sacks last season.

Oakland’s quarterbacks combined for 20 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, while Tampa Bay’s QBs had 17 and 24 in these categories.  I expect veteran Carson Palmer to play better, but he did have 20 interceptions during a full season with the Bengals in 2010 despite Cincinnati’s offensive line allowing the eighth fewest sacks.

The Chargers had trouble putting pressure on quarterbacks last season.  They were tied for 23rd with 32 team sacks in 2011.  The Lightning Bolts only had seven sacks in 2011 when they sent five or more rushers, which was 30th out of 32 teams.  San Diego added first round pick Melvin Ingram, and Shaun Phillips had at least seven sacks every season from 2005-2010, so maybe he will return to form in 2012 because he missed four games with an injury in 2011.  Antwan Barnes was tied for 11th in the NFL with 11 sacks last season, so hopefully he will bring similar production to the table in 2012.

San Diego will face another divisional foe on the road when they play the Kansas City Chiefs in week four with the rematch five weeks after that in San Diego.  The Chiefs ranked 26th in this category last season, giving up 132 yards per game.  Kansas City was 14th against the run in 2010 and played 15 games in 2011 without Pro Bowl strong safety Eric Berry who tore his ACL, but there is no guarantee that he will be back to form.  San Diego will play the Denver Broncos at home in week six and on the road in week 11.  Denver gave up 126 yards per game which was 22nd out of 32 teams.  Denver and Kansas City ranked 11th and 14th in fewest yards per attempt, so it could be more difficult to attack them, but the rest of these teams were no higher than 19th in terms of fewest yards per attempt.

The Cleveland Browns were 30th in run defense as they allowed 147 yards per game in 2011.  The Lightning Bolts will travel to Cleveland and face them in week eight.  San Diego will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 10 on the road.  Tampa had the NFL’s worst run defense last season as they allowed a horrendous 156 yards per game.  San Diego’s week 15 home game will be against the NFL’s 25th ranked run defense in 2011 as the Carolina Panthers allowed 131 yards per game.

San Diego running back Ryan Mathews finished 2011 with 222 attempts for 1,091 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns.  Mathews was 10th in the NFL in rushing yards, 16th in attempts and had the highest yards per attempt average among running backs in the top 10 for rushing yards.  All seven of these teams added defensive tackles, linebackers and or strong safeties through free agency or the draft to help improve against the run, but San Diego should still test them by utilizing Mathews.

It will be interesting to see how Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs returns from his ACL tear.  San Diego has a week four road battle in KC, and a week nine home game against the Chiefs.  Charles only appeared in two games last season, but finished second in the NFL with 1,467 rushing yards while being 14th in attempts in 2010. The New Orleans Saints barely had a running back who eclipsed 600 yards thanks to injuries, but the combination of former Charger Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory helped New Orleans finish sixth as a team in rushing yards.  The Chargers have a prime time Sunday night game in New Orleans for week five.

The age of 30 is usually the time when running backs slow down.  The 30 year old Willis McGahee may have found the fountain of youth as he finished eighth in the NFL in 2011 with 1,199 rushing yards.  McGahee only combined for 209 rushing attempts from 2009-2010, so this could explain his productivity last season as Ray Rice carried the workload on the Baltimore Ravens those seasons. San Diego has a week six home game and a week 11 road game against McGahee and the Denver Broncos.  Their week 11 match-up with Denver will be followed by a week 12 home game against Baltimore.  Rice finished second in the NFL with 1,364 yards and tied for third with 12 touchdowns in 2011.

San Diego has a week 15 home game against the Carolina Panthers.  DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton all rushed for over 700 yards in 2011.  Carolina led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 26 and was third as a team in rushing yards. San Diego was tied for sixth in terms of giving up the most plays of 20 or more rushing yards in 2011.  San Diego added defensive tackle Kendall Reyes and strong safety Brandon Taylor, so hopefully they will help the Chargers improve against the run.

The Chargers have week 12 and week 13 home games against the AFC North’s Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.  Baltimore only gave up 196 yards per game, led the NFL in fewest TD passes allowed with 11 and they picked off 15 passes.  Cincinnati was tied for seventh in fewest yards per attempt, and was ninth in fewest yards allowed with 212.  San Diego will be in for a war in week 14 when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. Pittsburgh is the NFL’s reigning leader in fewest yards per game and fewest yards per pass attempt. The Chargers will travel to New York to face the New York Jets in week 16.  New York allowed 201 yards per game and 15 touchdowns while they were able to get 19 interceptions.

Philip Rivers completed 50 of his 79 passes in two games against Kansas City in 2011 for 635 yards, but he had no touchdowns and four interceptions.  Rivers was 16-32 against New York with 179 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but he was 17-23 against Baltimore for 270 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.  Rivers combined for two touchdowns and six interceptions against teams that ranked in the top 10 against the pass in 2011.  Although Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati ranked second, eighth and 10th against the run, New York, Kansas City and Cleveland ranked 13th, 26th and 30th against it, so giving Ryan Mathews more carries would be smart.

San Diego has a week six home game against their division rival Denver Broncos.  Peyton Manning has not played since the 2010 season, but finished second in passing yards and was tied with Brees for second in TD passes that year.  San Diego will face Manning and the Broncos in Denver for a week 11 AFC West battle.  The Lightning Bolts will travel to Pittsburgh to face Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 14. Big Ben finished ninth in passing yards last season and was tied for 11th in TD passes.  San Diego has a week 15 home game against the dual threat Cam Newton who finished 10th in passing yards, tied for 11th with Roethlisberger in TD passes and was second in the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns.

San Diego was tied for 23rd in the NFL with 32 sacks in 2011.  San Diego added first round pick Melvin Ingram to help improve on this, and Shaun Phillips could return to form since he recorded at least seven sacks per season from 2005-2010.  Antwan Barnes was half a sack shy of being in the top 10 for this category in 2011.  San Diego’s pass rush will be of the utmost importance in these six games.

The Chargers were red hot in 2011 as they got off to a 4-1 start.  An inexplicable six game losing streak in which the Lightning Bolts constantly shot themselves in the foot cost them a chance at making the playoffs.  Denver and San Diego finished last season at 8-8, but the Broncos won due to a tiebreaker scenario.  A.J. Smith made moves this off-season to improve San Diego’s pass rush which ranked 23rd in the league with 32 sacks by adding Melvin Ingram.  He also attempted to improve a run defense that ranked 20th out of 32 teams by adding defensive tackle Kendall Reyes and strong safety Brandon Taylor.

The New England Patriots finished 2007 with a 16-0 regular season record. Along the way, they trailed 28-24 going into the fourth quarter at home against a 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles team, and trailed 28-23 going into the fourth in their last regular season game.  It would be naive to think that San Diego will not have problems in 2012 because New England proved that every team goes through some type of obstacle along the way.  San Diego’s response to these issues will be interesting because they overcame adversity in 2008, but failed to do so in 2010 and 2011 as they were one win away from making it to the postseason in both years.

Turner continued to be a breath of fresh air during the 2008 season when San Diego knocked off the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs for a second consecutive season.  They would go on to lose 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champions in round two. Turner’s tenure with the team started to go south after that loss.  The Chargers finished with a 13-3 record in 2009, but lost their only playoff game.

San Diego got off to a dreadful 2-5 start in 2010 and finished with a 9-7 record which was one win away from making the playoffs.  San Diego was 4-1 in their first five games last season, but went on a six game losing streak that destroyed their chances of making the playoffs. San Diego was 8-8 last season as were the AFC West champions, but lost due to a tiebreaker scenario.  San Diego has a 3-5 record in the playoffs in Smith’s nine seasons as GM and while Turner’s 3-3 playoff record is not horrible, San Diego lost their last two playoff games.  If there is a slow start to the 2012 season, San Diego’s ownership needs to make immediate changes.

San Diego was able to re-sign center Nick Hardwick and left tackle Jared Gaither, which were huge moves and allowed the Chargers to focus on other positions of need.  The only questionable moves this off-season by Chargers general manager A.J. Smith were not finding better backups for Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews.  Charlie Whitehurst was brought in to back up Rivers and spent four seasons with San Diego from 2006-2009, but he was not good enough to start over Tarvaris Jackson in 2011 for the Seattle Seahawks. Jackson had a 10-10 career record with 24 touchdowns and 22 interceptions going into last season.  Curtis Brinkley and Edwin Baker have little to no NFL experience, so it would be nice if the Chargers added someone like Thomas Jones or convinced Ricky Williams to come out of retirement for this season in case Mathews gets hurt.  They could add a younger backup for the future in free agency after 2012 or in the 2013 draft.

Although Charger fans may be upset about Vincent Jackson signing as a free agent with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Diego needed so much help at other positions, that bringing Jackson back may have cost them in the long run.  Mathews may want to restructure his contract, which could have been a problem if they re-signed Jackson.  They can add a receiver in round one or two in next year’s draft, and the team proved they can be explosive on offense in 2010 when Jackson appeared in five games and San Diego had the number one offense in the league.  Robert Meachem will more than likely not be as productive as Jackson, but Meachem averaged 43 receptions, 660 yards and seven TDs his last three seasons with the New Orleans Saints.  He should definitely be more productive than Legedu Naanee who was Jackson’s primary replacement in 2010 when he had 23 receptions, 371 yards and one TD.