edwin jackson turned down $30M for 3 yrs to sign for 1 year with #nats. sought to play for contender & establish value.

February 2, 2012 7:28 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@JonHeymanCBS

Jon Heyman

Edwin Jackson may have seen a lot of teams clamoring for his services but it will be tough for him to establish enough value to get more than the $8-12 million he got from Washington. For example, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes that, although Edwin Jackson is very serviceable, he remains the same pitcher he has always been since 2003. And surely to increase the right handers value, the Nationals must make the playoffs – which is no sure thing writes Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs.com.

No doubt getting a number four pitcher that can regularly give you 200 innings is always a plus, but Edwin Jackson has never been a strike out pitcher with only a career 6.8 SO/9 ratio, and has always had problems letting men on base by allowing batters to hit a career .271 against him, and owns an eye-popping 1.476 career WHIP.

Edwin Jackson could be one of the final pieces of the puzzle to get the Washington Nationals into the plays-offs but the hype must be kept in prospective.

Edwin Jackson is going to sign with the Washington Nationals pending a physical according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

edwin jackson in agreement with #nationals on deal. (he was seen in airport for physical)

February 2, 2012 1:37 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@JonHeymanCBS

Jon Heyman

It is a one year deal, believed to be in the $8-12 million dollar range. Jackson had multiple three-year deal offers from a few teams ( one was believed to the Baltimore Orioles), but was said to be more likely to take a one year offer.

jackson is a 1 year deal, believed to be in $8-to-12M range. #nats

February 2, 2012 1:52 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@JonHeymanCBS

Jon Heyman

The signing comes as a bit of a surprise due to the fact that the Nationals had not been linked to Jackson earlier. However, Washington and Edwin Jackson’s agent, Scott Boras, have a tremendous relationship – Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, and Jayson Werth are all Boras clients.  And earlier today reports were swirling around that the Nationals were aggressively shopping left handed starter John Lannan, whom they had beat in arbitration earlier in the week. Lannan had requested $5.7 million and Washington submitted $5 million. No deal has been reached to move Lannan just yet, however, the move is seen to be purely a salary dump to make room for Jackson.

The signing  could give the Washington Nationals  one of the best rotations in the National League with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, the newly acquired Gio Gonzalez, and now Edwin Jackson. Could Washington be looking at its first playoff birth?

“We wouldn’t rule out adding a starter, but I think it’s unlikely at this point,” Cherington said before Wednesday’s Town Hall session. “We’re going to keep looking for ways to improve the team, including the pitching staff, I wouldn’t expect any major changes.”

Earlier today a report surfaced announcing that Boston was out of the Edwin Jackson race, later in the day another source came forward to report that the Red Sox were still infact speaking with Edwin Jackson and were also, surprisingly, still involved with Roy Oswalt.

Cherington putting the proverbial nail in the coffin on adding a starting pitcher makes the salary dumping move of trading starting shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies all the more puzzling.

Boston looks to be in the same position with Jackson/Oswalt as NYY was with Kuroda/Jackson: They're waiting for 1 to say yes to their price.

February 1, 2012 3:22 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@Buster_ESPN

Buster Olney

Jackson is still said to be leaning towards taking a one year deal, most likely in the $10 million dollar range.

heard again davey johnson really wants bryce harper starting the year with #nats as the rf

January 31, 2012 7:40 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@JonHeymanCBS

Jon Heyman

Bryce Harper would become the youngest player in the Majors if this situation plays out.  His first season in professional baseball was a complete success – he finished the season in Double A at only 18 years old and tore through the Arizona Fall League.  He has been in the media spotlight since he was 15 and nothing has seemed to faze him. Many think he should spend some time in Triple A to begin the season, possibly as a way to slow down his free agency clock which would be similar to how the Nationals handled Stephen Strasburg. However,  if he handles himself in spring training it could be too difficult for Washington to send him down.

Edwin Jackson has multiple three year deal offers out there, one of which is from the Baltimore Orioles. However, teams have been told the free agent is more likely to take a one year deal to boost his stock. It seems Jackson and his agent Scott Boras are on to something and do not want to give any teams the opportunity to get the pitcher at a bargain. Earlier today Howard Megdal of MLBtraderumors.com wrote a piece comparing Edwin Jackson to Jason Schdmidt -

“It is fairly astonishing that we are entering the month when teams report for Spring Training, and Edwin Jackson remains as homeless as Thomas Jane in Arrested Development.

This is particularly true when we compare Jackson’s free agency to the one enjoyed ten offseasons ago by Jason Schmidt. The year was 2001. The Diamondbacks had just beaten the Yankees in the World Series. George Harrison died. Anthrax was in the air.

But none of that stopped Jason Schmidt. The righty, about to enter his age-29 season, had put up an ERA+ of 107 while pitching for two teams. For his career, his ERA+ stood at 99, with career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 6.9 per nine innings. He was rewarded with a five-year, $41MM contract from San Francisco.

Fast forward ten years, and look at Edwin Jackson. The righty, about to enter his age-29 season, has just put up an ERA+ of 106 while pitching for two teams. For his career, his ERA+ stands at 97, with a walk rate of 3.7 per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 6.7 per nine innings. And he can’t find a job.

If Schmidt is any indication, today’s teams are missing an opportunity for a bargain. Over his next five seasons, Schmidt pitched just over 1,000 innings at an ERA+ of 127. He made three All Star teams, finished in the top four of Cy Young voting twice, won an ERA title in 2003, and reduced his walks to 3.2 per nine while elevating his strikeouts to 9.0 per nine. He was well worth that $41MM investment.

Chances are good that Jackson won’t approach Schmidt’s contract length, and his annual salary could dip below Schmidt’s as well, even adjusting for the decade that has passed. Why? Teams fear getting stuck with the other Schmidt deal — the three-year, $47MM contract he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 2007 season. For that money, Los Angeles received 43 1/3 innings of 6.02 ERA pitching.”

In Boston’s case any pitcher they sign seem to only be stop gaps until the return of John Lackey or until one of their farm arms are ready for the bigs in 2013. Getting even one year of a 200 innings pitcher like Edwin Jackson in the fifth spot of the rotation could prove bargain enough.

Coming into the 2007 season Alex Gordon was ranked by Baseball America as the number two prospect in the entire game. He had one season of professional baseball under his belt and he now found himself in the Major Leagues.  Gordon had a solid but unspectacular rookie season, hitting .247/.314/.411 with 15 home runs.  In his second year he improved on those numbers hitting .260/.351/.432 with 16 home runs. It was another decent year but not what everyone was expecting. The next two years would push everyone’s expectations way down, even to the point where some were wondering if Alex Gordon, the can’t miss kid, simply missed. He lost most of 2009 and 2010 in the Majors to injury and mediocrity. While rehabbing in the minors he stilled showed he could hit, posting an OPS over 1.000 on each stint. Was Gordon simply a quadruple A player (star in the minors but not quite enough for the major leagues)?

Alex Gordon and the Kansas City Royals knew something needed to change in order to save a once promising career.  Leading up to the 2011 season, The Royals had hitting coach Kevin Seitzer work with Gordon on his swing, getting into a ready position earlier and more compact at the plate. Well it paid off in 2011 – .303/.376/.502 with 23 home runs, 185 hits and 87 runs batted in. All career highs.  But did Alex Gordon really turn the corner on his career or was it simply one of those years?

Taking a look at a few of his ratio stats from Baseball- Reference, Gordon improved across the board power wise. He hit for a higher percentage of home runs, struck out less, a higher percentage of his hits were going for extra bases. However, he wasn’t walking any more than he had in years past and he was putting about the same percentage of balls in play as he usually had, he wasn’t hitting for a line drive percentage at any higher a rate ( league average is between 18-20%),so what was the reason for Gordon’s success?  A look at his stats on FanGraphs.com show he made contact on almost 79% of the times he swung (78.8 to be exact) after having only connected on 76.5% of his swings before his breakout season. It was a sign of improvement but league average is around 80-81%, so again why were Gordon’s numbers better this year?

A closer look at his relevant advanced batting stats from Baseball Reference paints a clearer picture. Coming into 2011, Gordon had a career average around .285 balls in play. In 2011 he hit .358, 73 points above his career average.  Batting average on balls in play is a tricky measure of a players worth because a player has little to no control on what happens once the ball is in play, meaning luck comes into play. Was Gordon really 74 points better in 2011 or was he simply lucky?  A variation as high as his almost assuredly means some sort of regression in the following year but will he go back to being the Alex Gordon of old? Most likely not, FanGraphs.com breaks down BAbip and describes why a player’s average can vary from year to year –

Description:

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits. While typically around 30% of all balls in play fall for hits, there are three main variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players:

a) Defense - Say a player cracks a hard line drive down the third base line. If an elite fielder is playing at third, they may make a play on it and throw the runner out. However, if there’s a dud over there with limited range, the ball could just as easily fly by for a hit. Pitchers have no control over the defenses behind them; all they can do is minimally affect if a ball is more likely to be in the air or on the ground.

b) Luck - Sometimes, even against a great defense, bloop hits can fall in. A batter may turn a nasty pitch into a dribbler that just sneaks past the first baseman, or they may blast a shot in the gap that a fielder makes a diving catch on. A pitcher can make the absolute perfect pitch against a batter, yet the hitter could still dribble it up the middle for a hit. That’s just the game.

c) Changes in Talent Level - Over the course of a season, players can go through periods of adjustment. Maybe a pitcher starts tipping one of their pitchers, their mechanics are off, or they start leaving too many balls over the plate. Balls get hit harder until the pitcher makes the necessary adjustments, but until then, the harder a ball is struck, the more likely it is to fall in for a hit.

While a player may not have much control after he has made contact, this description helps point out why Gordon was more successful in 2011. He didn’t hit for a higher percentage of line drives but he did make more contact in 2011, he had a little luck come his way and he made adjustments to his swing.

Will Alex Gordon regress in 2012? Putting everything together a lower batting average is basically assured – .275-.280, but his higher contact rate, lower strike out rate and improvement across the board power wise including a .200 isolated power average, 40 points above his career average (slugging – batting average) – Bill James suggest changes in isolated power take on meaning around 550 plate appearances, Gordon had 688- suggest he should be able to put up similar numbers to what he did in 2011.

The Red Sox were unwise enough to left Epstein leave for Chicago before outlining what they would receive back from the Cubs. Now with Theo Epstein fully entrenched in Chicago he is left to negotiating against Boston to decide what he is truly worth.  The Red Sox have thrown out names like starter Matt Garza and number one prospect Brett Jackson, obviously Theo is using the Mcphail case as comparison. The Red Sox believe Epstein is worth more than any other executive and with both teams at a standstill the clubs have asked Commissioner Bud Selig to decide the proper compensation.

Now that the case is out of both teams’ hands Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting one AL General Manager believes Selig will side with Boston.

“The Cubs and Red Sox will soon meet with a representative of the Commissioner’s Office or the commissioner himself to discuss the Epstein compensation issue. The best school of thought on this comes from an AL GM who is not associated with either team: “I think the commissioner will give the Red Sox a significant player. I don’t think MLB wants executives leaving their teams before their contracts are up and therefore he will try to deter teams from doing that again.’’

With Red Sox nation at threat level orange due to a subpar off-season could getting something of value from Chicago make everything worth it?

Leading up to the 2010 Major League draft some were wondering whether Jameson Taillon was the one of the greatest high school pitching prospects they had ever seen.  It got to the point where some were wondering whether or not he could go number one over some guy named Bryce Harper. In the end Taillon was taken with the second overall pick by the Pirates. Gerrit Cole was the Yankees first round pick in 2008(28^thoverall) but chose not to sign, a wise choice on his part because after three seasons at UCLA Cole was selected first overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cole and Taillon will no doubt be tied to each other throughout their time in the minor leagues; Baseball America ranked Gerrit Cole as the Pirates top prospect followed by Taillon but MLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo ranked Taillon the eighth overall prospect in baseball and Cole eleventh.  The hope in Pittsburgh is that both can reach their full potential as front line starters but the question must be asked, who is the better prospect?

Size

Jameson Taillon – He has tremendous size for a pitcher at 6’6” and 230 pounds with extremely long limbs. He is lean but solidly built with some room left to grow into his long frame. As he matures he could end up with a comparable frame to Adam Wainwright.

Gerrit Cole – Cole also has outstanding size at 6’4” and 220 pounds. He is already a beast with a strong upper and lower body; there is still some room to grow in his lower half. He has the build of a future workhorse. By the time he is Major League ready he should have a comparable build to Josh Beckett.

Advantage – TOSS UP

Stuff

Fastball: 

Jameson Taillon – He has an explosive fastball with movement and was touching 99 mph coming out of high school. As a professional he has been able to maintain it deep into starts and can use his frame as leverage to create tremendous downward plane.

Gerrit Cole – On arm strength alone Cole would probably win this. He has touched 100 and there were rumors that he hit 103 mph on a few guns, he usually sits in the mid 90′s during games. He had some control problems due to mechanical issues his junior year at UCLA that caused him to become hittable but so far that has not seemed to be a problem as a professional.

Advantage – Taillon – His movement and similar velocity at a young age give him the upper hand.

Breaking Ball: 

Jameson Taillon – Taillon has two breaking pitches and both are plus pitches. His curveball sits in the low to mid 80′s with great depth; a true 12 to 6 curve. His second breaking ball can be untouchable at times. The slider sits in the mid to high 80′s and has outstanding lateral movement and could be a second strikeout pitch along with his fastball.

Gerrit Cole – He only has one breaking ball but like Taillon it is plus and a true strikeout pitch. His slider is harder than Taillon’s, sitting in the high 80′s consistently.

Advantage – Taillon – He has two plus breaking pitches and his slider can be unhittable at times.

Changeup:

Jameson Taillon – Taillon has a feel for the pitch but like many high school aces didn’t need to use it much. Thus he still needs to work on the pitch but down the road it could become a fourth offering to throw for strikes.

Gerrit Cole – Cole has a power change that sits in the high 80′s to low 90′s. It is a definite plus pitch with nice downward movement.

Advantage – Cole – With his velocity, having a power change could become deadly as hitters will have trouble timing it. A true out pitch.

Control/Command:

Jameson Taillon – He can throw all four of his pitches for strikes but Taillon does suffer from control issues like any young pitcher. He has a slight drop and drive delivery (not as pronounced as Josh Beckett) so he has a tendency to elevate his pitches from time to time. He can also get on the side of the ball on some of his pitches.

Gerrit Cole – At times Cole tends to catch a lot the plate, which was his problem in the later part of his junior year at UCLA. He has solid control but at times his pitches are flat. Outside of a poor showing in the Arizona Fall League All-Star game it didn’t really affect him as a professional in 2011. If he repeats his delivery his command is fine.

Advantage – Cole – When he is on, he’s on. He is a smart pitcher and usually repeats his delivery well. Taillon’s control issues aren’t really a huge problem, just something to work on but right now Cole gets the nod.

So who gets the nod?  In the end it doesn’t matter who the better prospect is. The Pittsburgh Pirates have themselves two pitchers with number one starter potential and both are predicted to reach the Major Leagues at some point during the 2013 season.

Two years, two pitchers and possibly the beginning of the turnaround so many in Pittsburgh have been waiting for.  The Pirates may not be winners in 2012 but the future looks bright for the black and yellow

The Boston Red Sox have reached a two-year player development extension with their short-season team, the Lowell Spinners. The extension means the team will be involved with the Red Sox through the 2014 season.