Jonny is eh…Jacoby is just weird. Anyway, lets get down to the stats and how great Votto has been, and how great he will be in the future. You know, since the whole idea about fantasy baseball is projecting. You don’t win games based on what players used to do.

So, to accurately predict I look at three items: Age, past and luck.

Votto is acing the age department. He is about to turn 27 (as it’s also known, the golden age of hitters). So as great as he has been this year, don’t expect his age to slow him down next year, or for the next 8 years.

His past represents a pretty normal development power-wise. His home run totals are 22, 26, 24, 26, 27. 27 being this year’s output so far. His average has never dipped more than 3 points below .300 for an entire season. So we’ve got power and average. Speed is his slight downfall, but he swipes a few bags every year just to keep us on our toes.

In terms of luck, Votto exceeds expectations every year. His BABIP is always way above the league average as is his LD% (actually down this year) and HR/FB% (a staggering 26 this year). Here is the kicker… Joey Votto has not had an infield fly ball this season.

Allow me to repeat that. Joey Votto has not had an infield fly ball this season.

None. Zero. David Ortiz has 32098802 this season. Votto, none.

That is the most encouraging stat to me. Solid wood, every time. And that, my friends, is what she said.

5:30pm: Looks like Burnett got scratched. Welcome to the Dustin Mosley show!1st Inning. Ellsbury might not get on base ever again.

Worth noting that ESPN ran a segment on WPA from Sox Yanks before the series. Manny was a God. As I type that, the Sox don’t manage to get out of the infield. Dueling no nos through .5!

I once watched JB toss a 3 hit gem in the playoffs, lets hope he still has some big games left in him.

I hate very few people more than I hate Nick Swisher.

First Comment from Jake (presumably NY): Is the whole thing going to be bias?

Yes. This is a Sox blog on the RANTsports network. How dare you?

Out of trouble in the first for Beckett. Pop out to Martinez at first…. you know, because it’s better to have Kevin Cash in the lineup than Mike Lowell.

2nd inning. Heyo! JD Drew gets out of the infield. And its Adrian BelTRE! Someone sneak into the booth and punch Joe Morgan in the teeth please. BelTRE almost sent one out, only to be robbed of at least a double by Swishalicious. I think I’m one of the few left who loathe certain players.

How much longer do we get to keep pretending Lance In The Pants Berkman hasn’t sucked for the last year, is old, and is out of shape?… Apparently long enough for him to hit a double.

I can only call for Jed Lowrie so many times. I despise the way Tito screws with the lineups every single day.

Congrats to Jeter. Passes the Babe. Most hits in NYY history. Quite the statement.

That’s it, I’m done. Maybe I’ll be back in a few innings.

Top 4. It is almost to the point where I don’t want to see Adrian BelTRE just so I don’t have to hear Morgan speak.

Bottom 5: Haven’t we had a hit put on Manny Delcarmen yet?… Why not?

6th: Over. It’s been real. I won’t jinx them like this again.

Must Haves For Everyone

MLB Closer Chart – Up-to-date lists of every closer plus the next three in line. Good for holders as well.

MLB Player/Injury News – The best place for the fastest updates on player injuries and news. If you are keen to RSS feeds, then get the MLB player news one asap.

RotoGraphs – The fantasy section of the top research blog on the net for baseball. Not for specific news, but always constructive reading.

RotoAuthority – Again, not for specific use, but a good collection of resources by a great analyst (Tim Dierkes).

In-Depth Sites (in case you want to dominate your league)

MLBTradeRumors – If you want to get ahead of the game, you need to know where your players will be playing and couple that with…

The Park Factor – The Park Factor displays relevant information about different parks around the bigs so you can tailor your lineup and staff to factor in where they are playing.

Future Shock – Future Shock is a blog over at Baseball Prospectus about top minor league players. Google “top 11 (insert team name)” for your team’s future shock.

Other Important Links (Dynasty leagues, etc.)

Cot’s Baseball Contracts – Real life contracts of every player and manager in baseball.

PitchFX Data – Think your Ace’s cutter isn’t cutting anymore? Check out his pitchFX. (warning, gets graph-y)

Bloomburg Sports – Awesome tools for managing your team and analyzing other important things (not free).

Game 1 – Buchholz – Vasquez

Whichever way this game goes don’t panic. I’ve got the Sox lightly penciled in for this one. Buchholz is pitching well, and the Sox are due for a breakout game offensively. I’ve also come to the conclusion that baseball is essentially random. Tonight goes to the Sox on the back of Clay Buchholz, Ortiz, and V Mart.

Game 2 – Lackey – Sabathia

This should be the best game of the series. It is the best pitching matchup. Lackey has been very good lately and CC is well… CC. I’ve got somewhere around a 4-3 affair going to the Yanks after another Sox pun collapse. Followed by the entire fan base of the Red Sox lighting themselves on fire (prematurely, mind you).

Game 3 – Beckett – Burnett

Sunday Night Baseball. Josh Beckett coming off a start where he threw at a few guys and was fined for “fighting” (AKA yelling in Shelly Duncan’d general direction). I smell an intense, emotional game that lasts until about 1AM. I also smell a Sox win comfortably. Perhaps around 5-1. The wild card here is how vicious the crowd might be depending on the first two games.

Game 4 – Lester – Mosley

This game could go one of two ways. If the Sox haven’t won a game to this point in the series then Jon Lester will come through. If the Sox have won 2/3 to this point I could see the Lester is hurt talk pile up after another 4ER over 7 innings start. It should be noted that he has been an average pitcher recently. Not a terrible one, just not the Lester we are used to. I’ve got this one going to the Sox big after tagging Mosley in the afternoon game.

I’d say sit back and enjoy but, well, we are Sox fans. I’ll meet you on the bridge Saturday night.

]]> http://www.rantsports.com/boston-red-sox/2010/08/06/the-must-split/feed/ 0 http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/2010/08/05/mat-latos-nl-mvr/ http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/2010/08/05/mat-latos-nl-mvr/#comments Thu, 05 Aug 2010 14:17:06 +0000 tylernorton http://9.123

That’s right, Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player had a baby, and its name is MVR (Most Valuable Rookie). I’m one of those “MVP should be the most important to their team, not most outstanding player” guys. This year the Pads have gone from worst to first in one short year.  One of the big reasons is Mat Latos.

Lets take a closer look at some of his advanced stats and see if he is due for a sophomore slump or if he is here to stay.  First we look at this year’s stats:

ERA–WHIP–K/9

2.47–0.99–8.66

High K rates are a good thing. Low walk rates are also a good thing. 2.55 BB/9 is decent, not great by any means, but the high K rate helps erase lots of those mistakes as noted by his 83.2% Left On Base.

On the luck side of things, his BABIP is very low at .249. His line drive percentage is fantastically low at 14.6% and his HR/FB is under 10%. Are all of these sustainable? In the NL West, it’s possible. If we look at his minor league numbers and take inventory of his actual skills, then Latos holds up pretty well:

He has been striking less people out this year than any other in his career.

He has been walking more people this year than any other in his career (outside of his first campaign).

He has given up under 20 home runs in his career.

Read that last sentence again. He has been playing since 2007.

Being a big fella who leans on four solid pitches (including a newly developed slider this year), his high K numbers, in San Diego, facing NL teams, he has a good chance to be here to stay in a big way.

Here are some samples from recent facebook postings (my outlet) and snippets of conversations:

(comment made on July 31 after the first of two talk off wins against Detroit) – “The tiny chance the sox have this year is to do what they just did, lean on kids and hometown guys and hope to have emotion carry them. They aren’t as good as the Rays or Yanks, but kids like Bard, Kalish, and Lowrie have emotion and don’t know any better, and guy like Ortiz, Youk, and Pedroia are gamers Boston trusts. This needs to be the spark.”

Response (from my friend Dan) – “i paid 8 bucks for a sausage today. i’m throwing in the towel.”

Translation Rant – We (the Nation) are all sick of overpriced Fenway Park with a subpar team on the field. If you are going to put out a subpar product, at least make them likable. Not lifeless drones. On that note…

(The day before Lowell got recalled, right after Youk went down) – “Mike Lowell has a chance to play the ultimate good soldier. We are finally calling upon him after tormenting him all year. The fans still love him. He has been a model citizen all year. Like I said the other day. The way back for the Sox is through youth and Boston’s own. Lowell is the certainly one of our own.”

Response  (from my Dad after the game) – “Good call by you, especially after tonight’s game. Love Lowell and the fire shown by your guy, Beckett!”

Translation Rant – This team is dead in the water, and we need something to get us going. The day after Mike Lowell does just that what happens? He sits. How is he not in todays lineup? How does he not enter the game at all? Cash? MacDonald? Hall? Patterson? Give me a break. I’ve had enough. Here is what I want (and if we lose every game from here on out so be it, at least I’ll enjoy cheering for my team again):

DH Ortiz, C – Martinez, 1b – Lowell/Youk, 2b – Lowrie/Dusty, ss – Scoot, 3b – Beltre,  LF Kalish, CF – Ellsbury, OF – Drew…. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Wakefield/Dice-k

If we are going to do anything else then bring up all the kids, rest Bard, trade Pap, and move on. Stop sending mixed signals as to whether you are trying to win this season or not.

I’m not going to sugar coat any of this. Here are the season stats placed right next to the last 30 days:

AVG/OBP/SLG: .273/.347/.461 vs .257/.333/.431

BABIP: .308 vs .303 (translation = it’s not bad luck)

Their line drive, fly ball, ground ball, infield fly ball, and HR per fly ball percentages are all within a point of where they have been all year.

What does this mean? It means that they just aren’t hitting the ball as much. There is no secret to what is going on. It is just market correction. They are who we thought they were! The question is, do we crown their ass or let em off the hook?

Well, as we have talked about in recent days, the season is far from over. The schedule is conducive to a comeback in the standings and Dusty is due back soon. I’m running out of ways to say it is going to be ok.

On a side note, the Sox brass showed what they think already. The season is over in their eyes. Instead of splashing down at the deadline they turned their eyes to the future by acquiring an old target in Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That move pretty much adds Victor Martinez to the list of rental players like Cameron (DL), Hermida (AAA), and Bill Hall.

While Theo may be calling it for the future (which he should by the way), the Sox themselves shouldn’t mail it in. With their rotation, all they’d need to do is get into the playoffs and anything can happen. At least that’s what I’ll keep telling myself.

By Tyler Norton

Welcome to RantSports.com’s fantasy sports section. I’ll be your professor, Tyler Norton. I also write over at Fenway Faithful Report for the Rant Sports network. Today in class we will be discussing trade ethics at that magical time of the year: The Deadline.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. If there is any backdoor deals going on, the trade should be disallowed. No question. If someone is going to do that sort of thing then they probably shouldn’t be in your league.

So let’s assume that both teams are acting in what they believe to be their best interest. In a non-keeper league, there shouldn’t be too many issues. The trades should be happening between contenders looking to beef up for the run and fringe guys looking to sneak in. I am in a “home league” with 16 teams managed by my friends, so the shady deals aren’t an issue.

This year my team is towards the bottom of the barrel for a slew of reasons (Ellsbury, Reimold, and Morales to name a few). The deadline is today at midnight and I have been peppered with offers recently. I have politely declined. Why? Because even if I were to improve my team, it wouldn’t matter. There are no keepers this year and it is impossible for me to go from 16th to 6th. All I can do is mess with the order of things up top.

A couple of my friends have been upset with this all encompassing embargo. Especially since the 15th place team just made a 12 man deal (taking on an injured Strasburg). The trade itself is not unfair, there is just no upside for the 15th place team. I think that in itself makes the trade unfair. One team gets to improve for a playoff run, one team improves for no reason (I say they both improve, because unless both teams thought they were improving they wouldn’t have dealt. It’s an eye of the beholder sort of thing).

Now, I did not veto because I don’t really believe in vetoing. That being said, I would have been on board for a little complaining if someone else got the ball rolling. Turns out it passed without a single veto (we have a public message board). I am not overly outraged, but I am turning down all offers unless they improve my chances to win.

Now in a keeper league, if you are in last place you had best be dealing like you read about. If you finish the season with 6 players on your roster then so be it. Your job is to set yourself up for next year. Package players together, throw in picks if it makes the deal. Make things happen. In a dynasty league, there will be plenty of free agents. In a regular keeper league, plenty of picks to be made.

At the end of the day, it is fantasy baseball. If you are worried about being laughed at, get out now. It is that time of year, get on it. As long as there is a way to improve your team, be it for this year or next, go for it. Time is of the essence.

Today I’m taking a break from the statistical aspect of the Sox. I’ve spent enough time this year talking about VORP, BABIP, and all that stuff. I went to today’s game and had a great time. I got to see Buchholz dominate, a walk off, and an amazing sunburn (on myself).

This weekend’s series has been a roller coaster. Last night I texted a friend of mine, “I hate the Sox. Literally, all of them.” followed by “except for Lowrie.” then “and Ortiz, I’m back.”

Let’s start with the initial frustration. I still sort of stand by it. I do hate a lot of Red Sox. Not personally, but as players. Friday night, I knew, knew, that Cameron wasn’t going to come through. I’ve seen enough Red Sox games to know better. He isn’t the player he used to be, and he is not the guy you want batting with the game on the line.

Players I am comfortable with with the game on the line are under one of two categories: veteran Red Sox, and kids. I trust the Sox who are lifers because they know what it means to be beloved at Fenway. Ortiz, Youk, Lowell, Drew, Dusty, Tek. They know. And I trust them. Kids don’t know any better. They may not get it yet, but they are too young to understand and care. There is no pressure. Ryan Kalish had a good weekend. To him, his first MLB games are scary enough. After losing the jitters, there is just confidence. I keep Lowrie, Kalish, and MacDonald in that area.

The guys in between, it isn’t that I don’t like you, its that I don’t trust you. Scoot, Beltre and V Mart are solid hitters. They come through sometimes too. I just don’t trust them yet. They are rentals, not Red Sox.

Let’s get off the downer though. Two straight walk offs are sure to swing some momentum to the Sox. The Yanks are coming to town after 4 with Cleveland at home. That means we should have won at least 5 of our last 7 enter New York. While they have dropped 2 of 3 headed to Toronto for three before they meet the Sox.

Make no mistake about it, the Yanks are by no means out of the woods yet. They finish with Rays 3, Os 3, Rays 3, Sox 3, Jays 3, Sox 3. That is 12 games against top 5 teams in baseball in your last 3 weeks.

Non-sequitor here: I really hate Joe Morgan. He just came on the TV. My eyes are bleeding, I’ll be back tomorrow.

This weekend will be a great measuring stick for all three teams. The Rays are fresh off a 4 game sweep of the Tigers. They beat them, but didn’t beat them down (winning by 5, 1, 3, and 2). The Tigers now travel to Boston and should give us a decent idea of where the teams stand. If the Sox can’t take at least 2/3 from the Tigers, then it might be time to pack up realistic hope for this year and start considering contracts and targets for next year.

I think they do take at least two of three from them though, and for the sake of this article we are going to assume that is the case and the season isn’t over. As we wait for the Rays and/or Yanks to stumble even a little bit (one has to this weekend, they are playing each other), the Sox are really not playing bad ball. Winners of 6 of their last 10, they have found their pitching stride again. If they can put some runs on the board like they were in the first half and preserve Bard and Pap then they should be in business down the stretch.

Call me crazy, but if we can take 3 of 4 from the Yanks next weekend we have an outside shot at the division. We finish the year with 6 of our last 10 games against the Yanks. So I’m not sayin, I’m just sayin. Also the Rays and Yanks play each other another 10 times before season’s end. There is plenty of baseball still to be played.

Over the next seven days we will be able to judge ourselves against the top two teams in the division as they judge themselves against each other too. This weekend we play a team the Rays just smoked, and follow it with (Cleveland) the Yanks. The Yankee series matches up as Vasquez – Buchholz, CC – Lackey, Burnett – Beckett, Starter du jour – Lester. It will be interesting to see if this so called “boring” Sox team lays down, or fights to stay in it.