About Last Night: Lackey, Pap, and Patterson
Last night headed into the bottom of the 9th the Sox looked pretty good. Lackey had a great outing, a 5 run lead, and a seemingly deflated crowd at Safeco. Enter Manny Delcarmen, Franklin Gutierrez, and Mr. BS Himself (Papelbon). Win expectancy swung from 99.4% to 50% and headed to extras. Here is how:
The ride starts with John Lackey dominating. He took a no no into the 8th and when he left the game the Sox were in a pretty good position. After 8 (when Lackey left) they had a 99.5% chance of closing the door. He is to be commended for a great outing. And before it even comes up, no he should not have stayed in, his pitch count was well over 110 and he was being hit hard, just right at people for the most part.
Now it is time to look at the performances that happened in crunch time. It’s time for leverage index. The highest impact for a pitcher last night was Papelbon. His LI is over 4. No one else managed to get to 3. He wasn’t put in the best situation, and he didn’t let his own runs in, but as the closer he really has to slam the door. Instead here is what took place: K, double, walk, Bill Hall error, intentional walk, K.
Perhaps some of those things were out of his control. The IBB, the error. Unfortunately for Pap’s numbers, we can’t assume a double play. Otherwise he would (statistically) be off the hook. That still doesn’t excuse the lack of command and ability to close the door. He was the most important pitching component to this game, and he did not come through.
Now, onto the good news. The Oki Doki was pitching himself into and then (impressively) out of a jam. With the aid of two infield pop ups with the bases loaded, he racked up more impact on the game than our near no hit starter Lackey. He deserves a lot of credit though. The only real hit he gave up was the initial one to center by Wilson. An infield single and an intentional walk later and Oki is in a bases chucked with 1 out jam in extras on the road with their two best bullpen arms used up for the night.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Sox were pretty good last night. This was the first time since the break that they mustered more than 4 runs. The savior was Eric Patterson in the 13th with his two out double and pair of RBIs. That one double is responsible for a 45% swing in win probability and effectively won them the game. Well worth staying up until 2am.
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