It’s hard to believe after the way they finished the season, but the Red Sox remain an outstanding team. Led by the top offense in the league, the Red Sox ended the season at a respectable 90-72. Expectations were higher than ever after trading for Adrian Gonzalez and signing Carl Crawford. Expectations, that were unfairly placed on the Red Sox, as a deeper look into their team would have revealed they had not transformed themselves into an elite juggernaut. Most people ignored the contributions of departing free agents like Beltre & VictorMartinez. Adrian Beltre had one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 390 wOBA while adding 7 WAR. Meanwhile V-Mart added 3.7 WAR from behind the plate, while being a key middle of the order hitter.
Adding Crawford and Gonzalez over Beltre & Martinez was the right move in the long term. There’s no question about that. But people assumed that these two would make the Red Sox significantly better than what they were last year, when in reality, they just offset the losses of Martinez & Beltre. Getting full, healthy years out of Pedroia, Beckett and Youkilis was a big help. Realistically, the Red Sox were never the best team in the AL, and it showed. That being said, they’re still a very talented team and should once again compete for a playoff spot in 2012.
The rotation is the biggest area of need for the Red Sox. Both Dice-K and Lackey are going to miss time due to TJ surgery, although there’s a chance Dice-K could be ready by the middle of the year. Red Sox Nation, try to hide your disappointment that Lackey and his 6+ ERA won’t be able to pitch in 2012. New GM Ben Cherington will have his hands full here, looking to fill at least two rotation spots for next year.
Boston’s payroll drops by nearly $30 million next year, although after arbitration raises (including a sizeable one to Ellsbury), it’s likely they’ll have around $15+ million to spend. This is assuming that they try to keep their payroll around $160 million. The Red Sox haven’t been very successful in free agency recently, especially when it comes to pitching, which is why it’s likely they might look to trade for a starter. However, one option in free agency is Edwin Jackson, a durable middle of the rotation pitcher. Over the past 3 years he’s thrown 600+ innings with a 3.90 FIP and 11.2 WAR. With all the uncertainty and injury concerns in the rotation, a guy like Jackson who routinely throws 200+ innings is extremely valuable to a team like Boston.
The Red Sox had one of the best pens in the majors last year, thanks to the dynamic duo of Papelbon and Bard. While Papelbon is gone, they still have a few quality arms in Bard, Aceves,Atchisonand Morales. While it’s rarely a good idea to spend a significant amount of money on a closer, bringing Papelbon back would ensure they have one of the best bullpens in the game.
It’s unlikely that Boston will make a significant move to upgrade their lineup. JD Drew and David Ortiz are free agents, and it’s not looking like Boston will sign either one. Outfielder Josh Reddick did an admirable job filling in for Drew, and it’s possible that as early as next year he’ll produce a low 800 OPS with plus defence in RF. The DH spot might be trickier to fill, but a smart move might be to give Ryan Lavarnway the bulk of the playing time. Lavarnway is one of Boston’s top prospects, a “catcher” who dominated the minors, hitting 284/376/521 along the way. His defence behind the plate is decidedly below average, making it likely his future is as a 1B/DH. With Youkilis and Gonzalez playing the corners, and Salty behind the plate, the best way to get Lavarnway some at bats is through the DH spot. They can rotate him in at first and catcher, giving Gonzalez and Salty some occasional starts at DH. Even moving Youkilis to DH on occasion and allowing Lowrie to play third would help, as Youkilis had difficulties staying healthy while playing the hot corner. By letting Reddick and Lavarnway take on key roles the Sox can keep their payroll down, letting them spend in other areas like their pitching.
The Sox nearly made the playoffs this year, and they’ll remain one of the better teams in the East in 2012. They don’t need to make major moves like they did last year in order to reach the playoffs. Boston needs to sign another starter if they plan on beating Tampa or New York. If they don’t, a significant injury to Lester, Beckett or Buchholz would cripple their chances of making the post season. And the last thing Red Sox Nation wants to see is another collapse with the season on the line.
Buy Boston Red Sox Tickets | Buy Boston Red Sox Apparel
