Earlier this week the Boston Red Sox came close to acquiring left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A’s, only to lose out to the Washington Nationals who sent four prospects westward in the deal. While Gonzalez certainly would have improved the Sox rotation next season, the team will be better off for losing out on the 26 year old lefty.
According to the Boston Globe’s Nick Carfado,Boston GM Ben Cherington did not want to match the four top prospects thatWashington had on the table. Looking at the haul that Oakland ended up with, it is easy to understand his hesitation. The Nationals gave up right handed pitchers A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock, lefty Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris. Cole, Peacock and Norris were consensus top 10 prospects and Milone is not far behind, certainly a top 20 player. Peacock and Milone both got a taste of big league java last season while Cole played A level ball last year and Norris spent the season at AAA.
Gonzalez has four years of team control ahead of him so his trade value is as high now as it ever will be, but it is hard to imagine that he is really worth four top prospects that are all cost controlled. The fact that Brad Peacock and Tom Milone are close enough to the majors to have seen a little time in the show already makes this move even more shocking. The Nationals gave up two pitchers who could have fought for their fifth starter slot this spring and two players who are further away but who also have intriguing upside. In return, they get Gio Gonzalez.
Gio Gonzalez has an easily identifiable flaw. He walks too many hitters. His 4.05 BB/9 last season helped him lead the majors in walks. Gonzalez is able to walk so many hitters and still post a 3.12 ERA and a 3.65 FIP because he has an excellent strikeout rate. What you make of Gonzalez depends entirely on whether or not you believe he can improve his control. I am skeptical. While Gonzalez is just 26 years, he has thrown 532 major league innings and he has never posted a walk rate below four per nine. He has not managed that since AA. It could be that he can strength his strikeout rate to further temper the damage his free passes do, but unless one rate moves in a positive direction, Gonzalez will struggle to match his 2010-2011 numbers in Washington or anywhere else.
Oaklandis a very favorable environment for pitchers, suppressing home runs and featuring a wide expanse of foul territory that gives pitchers extra outs they would not have gotten elsewhere. Gonzalez has good ground ball rates, but there is reason to believe he will be more prone to home runs outside the friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum. In the past two season’s Gonzalez has had sharply higher HR/FB ratios away from Oakland. His walk rates are far more dangerous in an environment where he allows more dingers. There is no doubt that Gonzalez would have been an upgrade from Alfredo Aceves or one of the other options at the back of the Red Sox rotation, but he is no clear ace and therefore, Boston should not pay ace level prices.
No one has come forward with any idea of the package Bostonwas offering at this point, but to match Washington’s offer, Boston would have had to give up some significant minor league players. A.J. Cole was good enough to rank in Baseball America’s John Manuel personal top 50. Derek Norris may be redundant for the Nationals now that Wilson Ramos has become a force behind the plate, but he is still a very promising young catcher with power and on base skills, always a highly marketable commodity. Add two pitchers close to major league ready and this package is very hard for Boston to match. Would Sox fans really want to see a deal where Alex Wilson, Felix Doubront, Blake Swihart and Anthony Ranuado all get traded for a player who is comparable to AJ Burnet or Jonathan Sanchez?
Boston needs a starting pitcher and now that they have missed out on Gonzalez they will need to turn their attentions elsewhere. A number of better pitchers could make sense for Boston and cost less than the A’s lefty. From the Mets’ Jonathan Niese to Gio’s teammate Brandon McCarthy, a number of equally or more effective arms could be available by trade. When the season starts, this could well be one the best moves they did not make
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