What Happened To Carl Crawford?
Expectations were high when the Boston Red Sox signed Carl Crawford to a 7 year, $142 million deal last year. Crawford was coming off a career year, leading to his first top 10 finish in the MVP race. He hit 307/356/495 with 47 steals, 19 homers, 110 runs scored, 90 runs driven in and 7.6 WAR. Extremely impressive numbers, and based on the fact he was still in his prime (29 when the season ended) it’s no surprise that he was one of the elite players in free agency. Crawford was supposed to be one of the driving forces behind the Red Sox push to the playoffs. Not the guy holding them back, and literally dropping the ball with the season on the line.
So it’s time to ask a very important question – just what happened to Carl Crawford?
Let’s start with Crawford’s results – he “hit” 255/289/405 last season, playing below average defence, and “earning” 0.2 WAR. It’s one of the uglier seasons in recent memory. While Crawford might have struggled early on because he wanted to prove he was worth the contract, the greater possibility is that the Red Sox simply aren’t a good fit for someone of Crawford’s skill set.
A lot of Crawford’s value comes from his outstanding defence. While UZR numbers typically aren’t reliable over a single season, he’s routinely saved between 10-20 runs a season. Clearly he’s an elite defensive Left Fielder, one with the range to play Center Field. Which is why Crawford’s -2.2 UZR in 2011 was very surprising. Part of that is likely due to the fact that Crawford’s overall game was struggling, and his defence suffered because of a lack of confidence. But I believe a bigger reason is because he’s playing 81 games in Fenway Park.
This is the first reason why I believe Crawford isn’t a good fit for the Sox – a significant portion of Crawford’s value comes from his defence, and the Green Monster robs him of many opportunities to track down fly balls. Left Field is smaller in Boston thanks to the Monster, so balls that might be caught in other stadiums go for hits here. On top of that, the Red Sox have an outstanding defender in CF with Jacoby Ellsbury, who covers a tremendous amount of ground and limits Crawford’s opportunities. It’s true that Crawford played with a quality CF in B.J. Upton during his time withTampa, but the Rays stadium was much bigger than Fenway so that issue was less significant.
Offensively, Crawford’s struggles are harder to pin down. His strikeout rate increased to 19.3%, up from his career rate of 14.7%. Not a huge jump, but worth keeping an eye on. Crawford rarely walked in the past, but his 4.3% walk rate was his worst since 2005, his third full season in the majors. His isolated power was 150, which is right around his career mark. Which sounds like a positive for Crawford, until you realize that he should have hit for more power in Fenway than he did in Tampa.
Some would point to Crawford’s BABIP as evidence that he got unlucky. And it’s true – his 299 BABIP was lower than his career rate of 328. So it’s possible that had his BABIP been closer to his career averages he would have hit closer to 275-280. But players like Crawford who don’t hit for much power (especially for a LF) or walk very much are more vulnerable to BABIP spikes. And with the drop in plate discipline I pointed out earlier, it’s not significant enough to blame for his struggles.
Finally, we turn to Crawford’s splits against left handed pitching. Crawford has never really been effective against southpaws, posting a 684 OPS over his career. An unacceptable number, especially considering Crawford’s playing a position that demands a high level of offense. No amount of defence makes up for this, and in 2011 his 566 OPS dropped to a new low. If the Red Sox could find a quality outfielder who hits left handed pitching, they might be better off platooning him with Crawford.
It’s painful to accept or even think about, to platoon a player who is averaging more than $20 million a season. But from a baseball standpoint, it’s tough to argue that Crawford deserves to be in the lineup vs southpaws.
Crawford doesn’t even deserve to bat in the top half of the Red Sox lineup. Ellsbury and Pedroia are much better table setters, and as Ellsbury showed last year has much greater offensive upside. Even if Ellsbury wasn’t on the team, Crawford’s lack of on base skills means he would be a terrible leadoff hitter. He’s not a middle of the order masher, so the highest the Red Sox could really justify hitting him is 6th or 7th.
So what can the Sox expect from him next season? If he can cut down on the strikeouts next season, he might be able to return to hitting 280, possibly with a 775 OPS. Unless he’s injured he should remain a SB threat, and his defence should be improved over last year. Crawford might never be as valuable as he was during his days withTampa, but he should be a quality player going forward. Just not one worth $20 million a year.
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Who cares about crawford, the RS are going to eat his salary and he should be benched immediately for being an A**. If I were bobby V I wouldnt even try to speak with him anymore, the ball is in carls court.
Ought to trade him to Miami for Hanley. Both are unhappy and could do with a change.