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Is Bobby Valentine Overextending Boston Red Sox Starters?

Published: 5th May 12 10:59 am
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The Boston Red Sox pitching has been pretty awful thus far this season. They have the second worst ERA in the game and the third worst FIP right now. Their bullpen has been dreadful, with a 5.38 ERA- the worst in all of baseball- and a 4.42 FIP. With that bullpen, it is not surprising that Bobby Valentine’s starters have averaged over 100 pitches per game. As Troy Patterson of The Hardball Times points out, Red Sox starters are currently averaging with Bobby Valentine at the helm 102.4 pitches per game after averaging 98.5 under Terry Francona. While the many critics of the modern game’s low pitch count may applaud this strategy, at this point Red Sox fans should not.

Thus far, extending the starters has not helped the team at all. The Red Sox starters have faced 37 batters after the 100 pitch mark and opponents are hitting .300/.432/.529 in those at bats. Small sample size warnings are appropriate here, of course, but the trend does not appear to be just a statistical variation. In 141 plate appearance between 75-100 pitches Red Sox pitchers are far better, allowing a batting line of .237/.360/.459 against them.

As arbitrary as the 100 pitch mark may be, it Red Sox pitchers are tiring somewhere in that range and keeping them on the mound isn’t doing any good. Red Sox starters have averaged a 1.85 K/BB ratio thus far, but after 100 pitches that plummets to 0.86. As bad as the bullpen has been, they have still manage a 2.83 rate and their batting average against is .018 lower than the overextended starters.

It’s not surprising that when looking at the individual pitchers, its the veterans that are succeeding late in the games. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have both been successful past the 75 pitch mark up to over 100 pitches but in some ways that success is deceptive. After 75 pitches, Jon Lester has 5 walks and 6 strikes out against 45 batters. He has benefited from some seriously low batting averages on balls in play late in games. He has been able to pass 100 pitches more than anyone else on the team with 18 of those 37 plate appearances, though and that is largely due to being very good late in games. Josh Beckett has been even better late in games and though he has passed 100 pitches less than Lester, he has been extremely effective approaching that mark. Between 75-100 pitches Beckett has struck out eight and walked none and just one of his seven home runs has come after his 75 pitch.

If Valentine was simply extending Lester and Beckett’s outings, he would be alright. Unfortunately that is not the case. All of the other starters have seen just a few batters over the 100 pitch mark, but all three have struggled as their pitch counts rise. The most experienced back end starter, Clay Buchholz, has the lowest average pitch count thus far, in large part because he has been Boston’s worst starter. As his pitch count rises, he has been hit hard. He has allowed three of his seven home runs after his 75 pitch and walked as many as he has struck out (4:4).

Felix Doubront, who is in his first year as a full time starter, has been the Red Sox best starter, but he has also been the one most affected by his rising pitch counts. Against 86 batters before this 75th pitch, Doubront has allowed just 17 hits for 26 total bases and given up just one home run. After 75 pitches, he has allowed 11 hits for 21 total bases with two home runs. An elevated BABIP is a large factor, so this may be bad luck but the discrepancy is extreme enough to be worth watching.

Daniel Bard has been very similar to Doubront, with diminishing results as his pitch count rises coming from more hard contact. An elevated BABIP means this too could be a result of chance but Bard has actually show fatigue in his loss of control at times. He has been extremely effective at keeping the ball on the ground and allowed just nine extra base hits in his 23 innings as a starter. Four of those, including his only home run allowed, have come after his 75 pitch. (Though, for those who would use this as reasoning for Bard to return to the bullpen, it should be noted that he has been most effective between 50 and 75 pitches, and not in his first few innings)

Fear of his unreliable bullpen is not the only reason that Bobby Valentine would keep his starters going longer than his predecessor. The new manager and the organization may be moving toward higher pitch counts in the hope that their better pitchers (ie starters and back end relievers) will see more of the team’s total innings. This early season slow hook may be part of plan to stretch the starters out, making them better suited to longer outings. If this is case, it will be interesting to see if the team can get more total innings out of the rotation. Last season, no Red Sox starter passed the 200 innings mark and the bullpen pitch 517 innings, the second largest total in the American League. In theory, longer outings from starters should be a good thing and these early results are certainly no reason for the team to abandon a strategy that would help cultivate that.

However, extending starters only makes since if the starters are better than the alternative. Thus far, this may not be the case. As arbitrary as numbers like 75 pitches or 100 pitches may be, the fact is that pitcher do tire and using a tiring starter is almost certainly not as effective as bringing in relief help. If the poor results that Buchholz, Doubront and Bard have gotten as they reach the upper limits of their pitch count as just a statistical anomaly they will correct themselves and we will see these pitchers looking just as effective over 75 pitches as they are at any other time in the larger sample. However, if the current trend continues, Bobby Valentine and the Red Sox may need to rethink their current slow hook policy. As arbitrary as number like 75 pitches or 100 pitches may be, the fact is that pitcher do tire and using a tiring starter is almost certainly not as effective as bringing in relief help.

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