Tribe Poised to Make Free Agent Splash
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The Indians signing a top-caliber free agent? Sure, it sounds like the beginning of a bad joke, and the most exciting player we actually had a chance with is already spoken for. But don’t laugh too hard—it is well within the Tribe’s means to pursue a handful of upper-echelon free agents.
“Now Lewie,” you may be thinking, “you may be incredibly handsome, but how can anyone who calls himself an Indians fan think the Indians would go after a major free agent?” I know, it sounds crazy—the whole point of trading Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee was that we wouldn’t have been able to afford them once their contracts expired.
But signing some marquee names is certainly within the Tribe’s means. After shelling out $61.5 million for its Opening Day payroll this season, Cleveland has just $27.5 million committed to its roster for 2011, thanks to the departures of Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood. and Jhonny Peralta. Assuming the budget stays stagnant, that means we’ve got $34 million to play with this winter.
Of course, that’s before players like Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Chris Perez get arbitration raises, and doesn’t include the minimum-wage contracts we’ll tenure to newbies like Carlos Santana and Carlos Carrasco. Making generous assumptions about their salaries—say, that the three aforementioned arb-eligible players get $4 million each, and Aaron Laffey, Andy Marte, Rafael Perez, Anthony Reyes, Joe Smith all get $1 million—the Indians can expect to pay about $20 million on top of that.
That still leaves nearly $15 million to spend, though in reality it will probably be more like $20 million. And if the Dolans are willing to return the payroll to 2009 levels, that would give new GM Chris Antonetti $40 million in spending money this winter. Other factors aside, that would be more than sufficient to buy back Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez, with enough leftover to bring Jim Thome home-ay.
But of course, just because we can spend money, doesn’t mean we should. A rebuilding club shouldn’t necessarily be chasing down the best current talent available.
In this case, though, Cleveland should consider opening their coffers. Yes, the Indians are rebuilding, but the worst is (supposedly) over—a playoff berth before the end of the Mayan calendar is a real possibility. And even if the front office doesn’t expect us to be real contenders this year, we’re not just shopping for 2011—we’re investing in 2012, 2013, and beyond. This year’s crowded free agent market means that the cost of elite players will be lower than next year.
Of course, this doesn’t mean the Tribe will spend this winter, and it doesn’t answer the complicated question of who it would be worth our while to bring to The Cleve (to be addressed in the coming weeks). But don’t be surprised if the Indians make a play for a star free agent this winter.
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16 Rants to “Tribe Poised to Make Free Agent Splash”
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[...] Last week, I posited that the Indians could afford to be among the most active teams on the free agent market this offseason. With less than $30 million committed to the 2011 payroll, the Indians will be able to spend close $20 million this winter without increasing the budget. [...]
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[...] become a minor league team, charging Major League prices!!!!!!! Wake up and smell the … pine tar rag – Google Blog Search Share and [...]
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[...] established last week that the Indians have plenty of loose change to spend on free agents this winter, I spent yesterday [...]
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[...] Cleveland Indians have stacks on deck. As we discovered last week, the Tribe has just $27 million committed to the 2011 payroll. With a great class of free agents [...]
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[...] will probably earn about $10 million in arbitration next season—pricey, yes, but we could definitely afford him. If I were in charge, I would at least give Goedert a shot at the job in Spring Training (if not [...]
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[...] Hafner in 2007 is preventing the Tribe from making any major moves this offseason. While ownership has the financial muscle to spend on the free agent market, Cleveland’s Opening Day 2011 payroll will likely be south [...]
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What are you smoking?!?!?!? When Dolan gave away both Lee AND Martinez last year, when they STILL had 1 & 1/2 years left on their contracts, that told me all I needed to know! Either Dolan (“When we are ready to contend, I’ll spend what is needed to put us over the top”) doesn’t have the money, or he won’t spend it!!!!!!! Does the 2007 off season ring a bell? What did they do then, after being within 1 game of the World Series? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!!!! Also, when you GIVE AWAY 2 of your best players, and get a bag of balls, a batting weight, and a pine tar rag to be named later, you effectively become a minor league team, charging Major League prices!!!!!!! Wake up and smell the coffee!!!!!!! They even hired a minor league manager, after he was fired by one of the few teams WORSE than the Tribe!!!!!!! Yeah, I’m REALLY EXCITED about their “prospects” too!!!!!!! Sizemore (when healthy) and Choo will be the next giveaways, once they get to within 1 & 1/2 years left on their current contracts!!!!!!! ‘Nuff” said. I did get a good laugh out of your article!!!!!!! Thanks! Feel free to forward this to the so called owner!
I’m sorry, I think I misunderstood, you think Shin-Soo Choo is only going to get $4MM in arb? Your joking right? Asdrubal will probably get 6 or 7 and choo will probably get 10 or 11. you must be nuts if you think they are only going to get 4!
A rule of thumb for first-year arbitration players is that they earn only about 40% of what they could get the open market, and you have to remember that the arbitrators care about homers and RBI, not OBP and WAR. Choo would undoubtedly command eight digits on the open market, but even as one of his biggest fans, I don’t think he’s worth $25 million.
There is a huge difference between $10MM and $25MM. Do not put words into my mouth. What I said and what you say I said are two different things. Just because I don’t agree with you, doesn’t mean you get to get all pissy. Okay?
Ten million is 40 percent of $25 million, so if Choo gets $10 million in his first year of arbitration, it would mean he’s worth $25 million on the open market.
I have to say, I’m not sure where your getting your arb. stats from. I’ve seen first timers get as much as $14MM. That doesn’t mean that their worth $35MM. I don’t see what your getting at here….
The record for a first-year arb player is Ryan Howard’s $10MM in 2008. In that case, we’re talking about a player who had already been an MVP, a ROY, an All-Star, and a Silver Slugger.
Thanks for the post
Great work keep it coming