Cleveland Indians Free Agent Target: Adam Dunn
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The Cleveland Indians have stacks on deck. As we discovered last week, the Tribe has just $27 million committed to the 2011 payroll. With a great class of free agents available on the market, the Indians are primed to be big spenders this offseason.
The only question is: who do we sign?
Today, I begin my quest to examine every possibly fitting free agent’s chances of suiting up with the Tribe next summer. First up is Adam Dunn.
Dunn ranks among the game’s best hitters in terms of plate discipline and power. His offensive prowess is rivaled only by his clocklike consistency—he’s clubbed at least 38 homers seven years in a row, and 2010 was the first full season in which his walk rate dipped below 15.8% (though, at 11.9%, his eye was still comfortably above average).
The biggest flaw in Dunn’s game is defense—watching him play outfield could make you regurgitate your lunch and give small children nightmares. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, his defensive incompetence cost his teams over 67 runs from 2008-9. He showed substantial improvement upon moving to first base full time in 2010 (-3.1 UZR), but he’d still be best served as a DH.
Some years, Dunn would be the premier bat on the free-agent market, but with names like Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, and Adrian Beltre also available, he’s a second-tier catch at best. He’ll surely think he’s worth more, but three years and $40 million—well within the Indians’ budget—would likely be enough to get him. That’s not a bad price for a consistently elite bat.
But with so many exciting prospects on the horizon, should the Indians really block out one of their prime lineup spots for that long? Even assuming Travis Hafner is out of the picture (more on that here), aren’t we a little crowded there?
The problem is, there’s no guarantee that any of our prospects will actually make it in the bigs. Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jared Goedert, and Nick Weglarz would all have to turn into good Major Leaguer players (or four of them before the end of Grady Sizemore’s contract) for Dunn to be blocking a future star. That’s not to say any of them won’t turn out the way we hope, but these things just don’t always work out the way we want them to. Even if each of the five has an 80% chance of becoming a solid Major Leaguer, there’s a less than one-third chance that they’ll all find success.
Anyway, the fact that Dunn would be around for a while is a good thing. Unless something goes horribly wrong, the Indians should be legitimate contenders by the end of the hypothetical three-year deal—we could certainly use an established slugger like him for the 2013 World Series.
Of all the big-name free agents available, Dunn probably makes the most sense for the Indians. Whether he actually has a chance of coming to Cleveland—that’s another matter.
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I really like the idea of acquiring Adam Dunn and I do agree that he’ll be a bigger help in the AL as a DH. If we do get Dunn we should rotate between him and Travis Hafner so that they both get ample amounts of rest which could be crucial when considering Hafner’s shoulder.
Either way, Project Donkey and Big Donkey on the same team is an exciting thought.
Your wrong in 2 areas;
The Indians won’t be big spenders (what makes you think they will, do you follow the team at all?)
Adam Dunn is not a second tier Free Agent. He is the number 1 power hitter on the market (maybe over the past 4-5 years). He may not get Crawford money, but I bet the total value of his contracts surpasses Werth, V-Mart and Beltre.
It’s fun to dream, but I think your take here is WAY off!
Hey Jeff,
See my post from last week—if payroll stays consistent, we’ve got plenty of cash to burn this winter.
http://www.wahooblues.com/2010/11/04/tribe-poised-to-make-free-agent-splash.html/
Bedard would be a nice piece of pie, if they could get him for about a million, or a million and a half…agreed. Especially if you consider the fact that the Tribe might have all RHP in the rotation. Bedard would be a cost-effective answer…and a nice potential sell-high candidate if we could get him rebuilt.
As for Adam Dunn…while he would be a nice addition…but your estimation of 3 years and 40 million are way off. He’s likely the top power candidate, and rumors have the start off point for Dunn at 4 years and 60 million. Now way the Tribe spends that, and let’s be honest, THEY DON’T HAVE THE 40 MILLION, or are at least unwilling to spend it. Besides, I’d rather they spent 7 or 8 million on a big right-handed stick to go in the top five…oh yeah…we have LaPorta…
As for the Tribe’s payroll this year, and your estimations, they are way off as well. The Tribe has 26.6 million tied up for 2011. They also have/had 6 players in the first year of eligibility (Choo, Cabrera, Smith, Lewis, Perez, Laffey). They have two players entering their second year of arbitration in Rafe Perez and Anthony Reyes. Using three year averages of arbitration cases for first years and second years (and this likely will be UNDER what will actually be paid this year), their salaries will be right around 24 million. They’ll need another 14 players to fill out the rosters. If they all receive minimum (and we know that isn’t going to happen), that puts their final payroll at around 56 or 57 million.
Combine that with the Dolans stating that they aren’t going to spend…and it’s not hard to figure out that the Dunn’s of this world aren’t for Tribe thoughts.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2010-roster.shtml