The Unsung Dominance of Chris Perez
[picappgallerysingle id="9479072"]
In last Monday’s “Stat of the Week” post, we highlighted Mitch Talbot’s fluky early-season BABIP to explain how he went from Rookie of the Year candidate to forgettable back-end starter in the span of a few weeks.
But this week is about giving thanks, not reveling in misery. So today, we’ll look at a player who did the opposite thing in 2010: Chris Perez.
Perez was unexpectedly thrust into the closer’s role at the beginning of the year when Kerry Wood started the season on the disabled list. He didn’t make a very good first impression; in his first four outings, he took a loss, blew a save, posted a 1:5 K:BB ratio (no, that’s not backwards), and earned a 9.00 ERA in three innings.
But if you stopped following the story there—as many did—you missed the part where Perez became one of the best relievers in baseball.
From the day Wood came back (May 8th) to the day he got hurt again (July 11—he was traded to the Yankees before he returned from the DL), Perez posted a 2.52 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .193 BAA. But he didn’t stop there; after the All-Star Break, Perez posted a clean 0.63 ERA in 28.2 innings, converting 16 of 17 save opportunities.
It gets better. From August 7 on—his last 17 games, a total of 18.2 innings—he didn’t allow a single run. His K:BB ratio shot up to 21:6. He held batters to a miniscule .088 BAA and an insanely low .275 OPS. Did I mention his perfect 0.00 ERA?
That’s all well and good, but can that really make up for his poor stuff? The answer is yes. Yes, it can.
All told, Perez finished with a 1.71 ERA—good for second in the league among pitchers with at least 50 innings, behind only Joaquin Benoit, who was just rewarded for his fantastic season with a $16.5-million contract.
According to Baseball-Reference’s formula, Perez was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement, making him the most valuable pitcher on the team (second-place Fausto Carmona was worth just 1.9). Overall, he was the third-most valuable Indian, behind only Shin-Soo Choo’s insane 7.3 WAR and Travis Hafner’s 2.6.
Of course, there’s reason to believe his success isn’t fully sustainable; he was aided by a .236 Batting Average on Balls in Play (for an explanation, read the Talbot post) and a 5.5% HR/FB rate.
But should we be that alarmed? The HR/FB rate is likely to return to normal levels, which could spell trouble considering his fly-ball tendencies (45.2% career FB rate). But the BABIP could remain low, if not to this extent—Perez’s career mark is .256, and good there’s a precedent for good relievers having low BABIPs (Mariano Rivera, Joaquim Soria, Billy Wagner, and Trevor Hoffman all have career marks under .280, just to name a few). Plus, at age 25, he may develop into an even better pitcher, so he’ll be able to overcome a reversal of fortune.
Bottom line: Chris Perez is one of the best closers in the game. There’s a reason the Indians don’t have to worry about a fireman this winter.
Buy Cleveland Indians Tickets | Buy Cleveland Indians Apparel
Check out what others are saying about this post...
-
[...] this week to things that should cheer up the Indians’ depressed fanbase. I’ve honored an underappreciated pitcher, given Tribe fans a list of things to be thankful for, and handed out end-of-season awards to [...]
-
[...] this week to things that should cheer up the Indians’ depressed fanbase. I’ve honored an underappreciated pitcher, given Tribe fans a list of things to be thankful for, and handed out end-of-season awards to [...]
-
[...] at best. Perez’ résumé makes the situation even more confusing—he’s coming off a fantastic season in which he accumulated 23 saves while posting a 1.71 ERA, including a phenomenal 0.63 figure after [...]
Leave a Rant
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
FEATURED PARTNERS
3 Rants to “The Unsung Dominance of Chris Perez”