What Should Indians Expect in Rematch with Kansas City Royals?
When the Cleveland Indians and newly acquired right fielder Kosuke Fukudome take the field Friday night, they’ll get to face off against a familiar opponent: the Kansas City Royals.
The scuffling Indians haven’t won a series in almost a month (they took 2 of 3 from the Yankees, July 4-6), but they’ve got a good shot at turning that around against the Royals (44-61, 11 GB). Cleveland is 7-2 against Kansas City this year, and the Indians have taken five in a row against the Royals.
To get a better idea of what the Indians should expect from their weekend guests, I sat down (metaphorically speaking) with RoyalsAuthority.com‘s Clark Fosler to talk about Alex Gordon’s breakout year, Billy Butler’s ceiling, and who Kansas City could be selling at the trade deadline. Here’s what he had to say:
WAHOO BLUES: The trade deadline is three days away, and while the Royals have already traded Wlson Betemit, a number of other Kansas City players have been mentioned as being on the block. Who do you expect to see traded? Are there any particular prospects you’d want to target in return?
CLARK FOSLER: Royals GM Dayton Moore has set a pretty steep asking price for many of his more ‘tradeable’ players. The price for either Melky Cabrera or Jeff Francouer is a near major league ready starting pitcher, so they are likely to stay put unless some team gets really desperate. The Joakim Soria rumors have subsided as well. Right now, Jeff Francis is the most likely to go (Bruce Chen is available, too), but other than a very small Francis to Arizona rumor a week ago, there is not real news on that front. Moore has always and is likely going to continue to trade for young pitchers, but would seem unwilling to give up enough to warrant a true ‘prospect’ in return.
WAHOO BLUES: The Royals have an extremely impressive-looking collection of prospects and young players. When do you expect the next Kansas City dynasty to rise?
CLARK FOSLER: The hope, or as the Royals like to say ‘The Process’, is that the Royals will be set to contend year in and year out starting in 2013 and do so with mostly homegrown talent. The organization has recently starting talk of competing in 2012, but the following season is probably more realistic. Barring a drastic change in management or ownership, the organization seems willing to sacrifice another season in hopes of creating a team that can compete for multiple seasons, not just one. Speaking of prospects, your fans will want to watch first baseman Eric Hosmer, who will probably bat clean-up all three games. Despite not getting called up until May, Hosmer already has 10 home runs and 45 RBI. Oh yeah, he’s 21 years old.
WAHOO BLUES: Former top prospect Alex Gordon is hitting .300 with an .851 OPS and 3.7 WAR, but he also has a .361 BABIP. Is he a lucky fluke or is he finally coming into his own?
CLARK FOLSER: The general belief is that Gordon is for real (finally!). He revamped his swing over the off-season: leveling it out and becoming less pull happy, so there has been a material change that led to the increased production. His BABIP is on the lucky side, but his line drive percentage is about league average as well, so he might well be one of those hitters who consistently carries an above league average BABIP. The move from third base to left field (where he has been outstanding) has seemed to restore some of the fun in the game for Alex. Around Kansas City, the questions have moved from ‘will Gordon ever figure it out?’ to ‘when will the Royals sign Alex to an extension?’
WAHOO BLUES: We’ve been hearing for years that Billy Butler has is overdue for a power breakout, but he’s now in his fifth season and he has yet to clear 21 homers and he has only once posted an ISO over .155. Do you still think he could develop into a stronger hitter, or has he reached his ceiling?
CLARK FOSLER: This may be the single biggest debate among the fans right now. Some love Billy’s ability to just flat out hit and get on base, while others cannot abide by his modest power and truly horrendous footspeed. The move to full-time DH has not sat particularly well with Butler, either, and his demeanor has, at times, reflected as much – all of which has heightened the scrutiny on Butler’s lack of home runs. Truth is, Butler has a classic line-drive swing and a good batting eye, which makes him what he is: a slow guy who will hit 50 doubles and get on base at a clip near .400, but will likely never be a big time power hitter. Just watching Billy’s swing makes me think that he will probably always be a 15-20 home run a year guy.
WAHOO BLUES: Who’s taking the mound for the Royals this weekend, and what should Tribe fans know about them?
CLARK FOSLER: Kansas City currently employs a six man rotation, so the Indians will see Jeff Francis (barring a trade), Felipe Paulino and Kyle Davies this weekend. Francis is a soft throwing lefty who has pitched better than his record this year. He won’t top 87 mph, but knows how to pitch (remember he was the ace on the Rockies team that went to the World Series several years ago).
Paulino is an interesting guy. He was pulled off the scrap heap by the Royals earlier this season and has become probably their best starter. Big, thick body who throws hard and throws strikes (60 IP, 60 K, 15BB), Paulino has pitched into the six inning in 7 of 9 starts.
While Francis is the most likely Royal to be traded, the fans’ choice would by Kyle Davies: everyone except Dayton Moore is tired of him. Davies has good stuff – a 94 mph fastball along with a curve, change and cutter. He teases with outings like earlier this week in Boston (6 IP 1 run), but can be an absolute disaster as well. Kyle will fight the strike zone and himself more often than not. He can also look unhittable for three or four innings at a time, but that is usually sandwiched around two or three pretty horrible innings. Not sure if you are getting this: WE DON’T CARE FOR KYLE DAVIES!
WAHOO BLUES: What’s your prediction for the series?
CLARK FOSLER: The Royals play pretty good defense (Alcides Escobar is fun to watch in the field and all three outfielders should not be challenged) and have a very young, but very good bullpen. If the games this weekend come down to the bullpens, the Royals could win two of three. Sadly, the team’s starting pitching often turns the game over to the pen, not tied or ahead, but down three or four. Logically, Kansas City wins one.
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