During my Week 7 and 8 2013-14 College Football and NFL Picks columns, I spent a good amount of time talking about bad beats/backdoor covers that went against bettors of certain games. In my Week 7, I spent extensive time discussing about how many people ended up either on the right side or wrong side of a late Ohio State touchdown as they beat Northwestern. In my Week 8 column, I talked about how because of the New Orleans Saints deciding to play not to lose, they ended up letting Tom Brady drive down for a late game winning touchdown drive. This led the Saints to a loss against the New England Patriots and as a result cost me a win as I took at the Saints at +2.5.
The reason that I delve into recent past bad beats is because three of my against the spread (ATS) picks saw me lose due to late backdoor covers. In fact the three games which this happened to me were all from the college football games. The first bad beat came in the Clemson–Maryland game as Clemson was leading by 20 but decided to let Maryland drive down in the final minute to score a late touchdown to make it a 40-27 final, thus seeing me lose on a backdoor cover as I took Maryland at +16.5.
My second bad beat came in the Texas Tech–Oklahoma game as OU kicked a late field goal to extend their lead to 38-30, the score they ended up winning by, which saw me lose as I took Texas Tech at +6.5. Then to complete things late on Saturday night, I see Fresno State beating San Diego State 28-14 late in the fourth quarter and I begin to say, yes me picking Fresno State at -7.5 is going to be a winner. Well just my luck (and those of many others) Fresno State allows San Diego State to come back and tie the game late to send it to overtime where Fresno State would go on to win the game 35-28. But I still didn’t win since they didn’t cover.
The point of my story is this a play here or a late meaningless touchdown drive there as a bettor can be the difference between one going 4-1 instead of ending up going 1-4 as I did with my ATS picks last week. Now to put that bad week behind me and look ahead to the action this upcoming weekend with a few standout games on the docket in both NCAA Football and NFL action. In college football, the showcase game of the week is a battle of undefeated teams as Florida State hosts rival Miami aka The U in a game which has people of my age remembering to the great games of between the two from the late 1980s to the early 2000s.
Looking back on my picks, as stated I went 1-4 on my ATS picks to see me with a record on my ATS picks of 17-26-2 while a 5-0 week in my straight up picks sees me at 36-9 through nine weeks. As always, the lines for my ATS picks are courtesy of Covers.com while the lines for my bonus picks are courtesy of Bovada.lv.
Against The Spread Picks
- Oregon State (-3.5) vs. USC
- Notre Dame (-15) vs. Navy
- San Diego Chargers (-1) vs. Washington Redskins
- Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Straight Up Picks
- Georgia defeats Florida
- Michigan State defeats Michigan
- Florida State defeats Miami (so happy this game means something again)
- New Orleans Saints defeat New York Jets
- Green Bay Packers defeat Chicago Bears
Bonus Picks: In Saturday Serie A action, take Fiorentina to beat AC Milan at +260. In the Breeders Cup Classic to be run on Saturday, take Palace Malice to win at 11/1. Finally in Saturday night boxing action, take the over at +200 that the Gennady Golovkin against Curtis Stevens to go over 6.5 rounds in their WBA Middleweight Title fight.