By Justin Patrick @calling_allfans on May 29, 2014
Fans love to bet on sports. Between fantasy leagues, parlays, spreads, over/unders and March Madness brackets, among other methods, billions of dollars are bet on sports each year. There certainly are people who are more adept at betting on sports than others, but it’s always far from a sure thing. You can always rely on the Las Vegas projections if you want, but here are five reasons why that would be a bad idea.
There is more parity in sports today, particularly in the NFL. Many teams are more evenly matched now, making it very difficult to predict accurate odds before a season begins.
At the beginning of every season, fans of teams, like the Dallas Cowboys, always flood the market with bets on their team to win it all. Despite the fact that the Cowboys have almost no chance of winning the Super Bowl this season (especially with Sean Lee probably lost for the season), their fans will still throw money on them to win the Super Bowl. This makes the odds for these teams less accurate.
Trades can happen in any sport. What happens if someone puts money on a team to win it all at the beginning of the season and that team either trades away a key player, or acquires a key player? Then that team’s odds change dramatically. Maybe an MLB team is one pitcher away from being the favorite to win the World Series and they trade for that missing piece. No one can predict all of the trades that will happen before the season starts.
The Seattle Seahawks opened as favorites to repeat this season, at 9/2. The Seahawks were followed by the San Francisco 49ers (15/2), Denver Broncos (8/1), New England Patriots (14/1) and Green Bay Packers (16/1). Those odds will certainly continue to change. Any player on any team can get hurt at any time, so betting money on a team in May or June to win a Super Bowl, or any other championship, is crazy.
For all of the reasons before this one and others not mentioned, it is incredibly hard to foresee what will happen in a season. For crying out loud, most people can’t agree on an eventual champion for any sport once the playoffs begin, let alone prior to the start of the season.
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