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LRP: The Winning Turnover Recipe for NFL Teams

By

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Each year at this time, I author this article which shows the correlation between a team’s TO margin and their record. No one likes to read it because it points out to the handicapper that regardless of how much hard work you put into analyzing NFL games, there is no statistic that leads to ATS success and failure more than a team’s TO margin in a particular game.  Consider that, once again this year, any NFL team who has a +3 or more net TO margin against their opponent in a given game is 32-3 (91%) ATS.  Combining it with records for the previous 5 years, we find that the long-term record is now 209-19 (92%) ATS for any NFL team with a +3 or more net TO margin in a game.  In addition, teams with a +2 net TO margin in a given game approaches 80% ATS success, while even a +1 net TO margin results in over 65% ATS success.

The bottom line is that regardless of a handicapper’s expertise in analyzing an NFL game from a fundamental, statistical, situational or technical perspective, the results are still most closely hinged on net TO margin.  The chart below shows us the degree to which this is true for NFL teams based on their YTD net TO margin.  The teams are listed from the team with the greatest positive net TO margin to the team with the greatest negative net TO margin.  The results, as isolated below, are painfully clear. To continue reading, head to Locker Room Picks.

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