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Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, the “most exciting two minutes in sports,” will go through trainer Bob Baffert. The veteran, white-haired conditioner, who already owns three victories in America’s most famous horse race, will saddle the top two choices in this year’s Run for the Roses in American Pharoah (5-2 favorite) and Dortmund (3-1).
With a full field of 20 runners in the starting gate, anything can and often does foil the hopes of Derby favorites once the cavalry commences, but the hype surrounding American Pharoah and Dortmund is more than justified.
American Pharoah is the most talked about 3-year-old of the season. The Zayat Stables homebred has been brilliant in his two starts this year. Last year’s champion 2-year-old splashed home a 6 ¼-length winner over a sloppy track in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March and returned to win the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion by a widening eight lengths.
His facile Arkansas Derby score seemed effortless, suggesting that there is much more in the tank should his jockey Victor Ezpinoza, who piloted last year’s Derby winner California Chrome, ever call for more. While he has yet to be battle tested, American Pharoah is a deserving favorite. It remains to be seen how much he has in reserve should he ever face a stern test. After drawing post position 18 (of 20), American Pharoah will have to be on the gas pedal early in the 1 ¼-mile race in order to secure a stalking position just off the early leaders. Knowledgeable industry insiders believe racing fans could be in for a treat on Saturday if American Pharoah improves on his first two outings of the year. It’s a scary thought for the competition.
The biggest threat to the race favorite may very well be American Pharoah’s stablemate, Dortmund. Dortmund is a son of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. An imposing physical specimen—Dortmund stands 17 hands tall (most horses are around 16 hands)—the statuesque chestnut colt is undefeated after six lifetime starts.
Unlike American Pharoah, Dortmund has demonstrated his mettle and willingness to fight when challenged. Dortmund fought back to defeat Firing Line in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in February after being headed in the lane. He bolstered his slate by rattling off convincing wins in the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby, and he looks to be sitting on tilt heading into the biggest test of his young career.
Dortmund has been favored in all of his starts, but it appears that streak will come to an end on Saturday thanks to the buzz surrounding American Pharoah.
While American Pharoah and Dortmund deserve top billing in the race, there are worthy contenders certain to challenge for the prize.
Carpe Diem, a $1.6 million purchase as a 2-year-old, has done little wrong. Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, the royally-bred son of Giant’s Causeway drew an unfavorable post position (No. 2), but is certain to fire an honest effort and should be in contention if he is able to avoid traffic from the inside.
Florida Derby winner Materiality, like Dortmund, has never tasted defeat. He likes to show the way early and the lightly-raced colt promises to be in the mix from the get-go.
One of the more interesting contenders in this year’s Kentucky is Mubtaahij. Bred in Ireland, the horse won the UAE Derby in his most recent start with an electrifying turn of foot. While there are question marks about many entrants being able to handle 1 ¼ miles, this colt owns a European pedigree that says distance won’t be a problem. His biggest issue is squaring off against speedier American-based horses on their home field.
Frosted is a handsome gray colt by leading sire Tapit. Frosted captured the Wood Memorial in New York in his key prep race for the Derby and is getting good at the right time. He should also be considered a serious threat to the top two.
Firing Line gave Dortmund all he could handle at Santa Anita. When he got away from his hulking rival, Firing Lane won the Sunland Derby by a commanding 14 ¼ lengths. He is one of numerous horses in the race that fancies being close to the front early.
Many industry experts believe American Pharoah is beyond special. He very well could be a horse the likes we haven’t seen in recent years, and it would be no surprise to see him run away and hide from his rivals yet again. I like what I have seen on the track from Dortmund, and with a clean trip I expect him to defeat his more heralded stablemate in the 141st Kentucky Derby.
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