Repeat of Kentucky Derby On Tap in Preakness Stakes

By Michael Compton
American Pharoah
Mark Zerof-USA Today Sports

American Pharoah may not have wowed with his workmanlike victory in the 141st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, but as the only horse with a shot at sweeping this year’s Triple Crown, the much-hyped colt is a deserving odds-on favorite for the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico May 16.

Having entered this year’s classic races with a light sophomore campaign, American Pharoah may have benefited by the stern test he received in the Derby. His two wins in Arkansas prior to the Derby more resembled public workouts than prep races. He splashed his way to a 6.25-length win in the Rebel Stakes in March and returned to annex the Arkansas Derby by a commanding eight lengths without even taking a deep breath.

His one-length margin of victory over a game Firing Line in the Kentucky Derby was his smallest winning margin to date. It wasn’t the breakout performance many thought we would see from American Pharoah, but the Zayat Stables homebred got the job done. His time of 2:03 for 1.25 miles was slow and his jockey Victor Espinoza got after him the length of the stretch to keep his mind on business. If it wasn’t his best day and he still managed to get to the the wire ahead of 17 rivals, his opposition in the shorter, 1.19-mile Preakness should be very afraid if a return to form is likely for the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Last year’s 2-year-old champion, American Pharoah had never been tested in his five previous wins. The Derby made him dig deep for the first time. Assuming he exited the Derby in good order, and all reports indicate that he has bounced out of the race in fine fettle, American Pharoah might be stronger going into the Preakness than he was heading into the Derby with just two starts under his belt.

American Pharoah’s trainer Bob Baffert said following the Derby that the Preakness Stakes is the easiest of the three legs of the Triple Crown to win. Baffert should know. His three Derby winners — Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem — each won the Preakness Stakes before falling short of racing immortality losing in the Belmont Stakes.

About the only bit of bad luck American Pharoah has experienced in his young career came at the Preakness draw where he drew dreaded post position No. 1. In order to avoid any potential traffic problems, American Pharoah will need an alert beginning and Espinoza must utilize his mount’s speed to secure a forward running position in the race’s early stages. With the race favorite breaking from the rail, rivals will have the opportunity to pin him down on the inside behind horses should he happen to break a step slow or miss a beat away from the gate. A clean takeoff will be crucial to his success.

American Pharoah’s stiffest competition in the Preakness once again figures to come from Derby runner-up Firing Line and stablemate Dortmund, who finished third in the Derby after setting the early pace. Derby fifth-place finisher Danzig Moon also returns to take another shot at spoiling American Pharoah’s Triple Crown bid as does Mr. Z, who was unplaced in the Derby.

The horses exiting the Kentucky Derby are in a different class than the others slated to parade to the post in the Preakness Stakes. I expect Dortmund, Firing Line and Danzig Moon to have a say in the outcome, but in the end, American Pharoah will bring his ‘A game’ and prove his superiority in the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes. With wins in the Derby and Preakness in tow, American Pharoah will head to the Belmont Stakes in New York seeking to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

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