Should Houston Tank?
No prize exists in the NBA for merely good teams. Unless your franchise is equipped with championship caliber superstars or promising youth, trudging through the land of bottom seeds or playoff contention yields no tangible reward but the silent pride that the team you follow, run, or play for is competitive. The allure of an early lottery selection is reserved for the truly awful teams, and playoff success is limited to a win or two in the first round at best.
This muck of mediocrity has been Houston’s season story for two years and, unless changes are made mid-season in 2011-12, it appears to be the story this year as well. Without Yao Ming for consecutive seasons, the Rockets have finished as the best non-playoff team two years in a row, and after his July 2011 retirement, the team remains relatively unchanged. Led by Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola, Houston has started 2-6. This sets Kevin McHale’s squad at an odd juncture. Should they push for a playoff bid, probably no higher than seventh in the West, or cash it in for 2012 and set their sights on rebuilding with a future NBA star by tanking the rest of the way?
First of all, it’s important to acknowledge that the concept of tanking is somewhat media generated. Acts of “tanking,” or purposeful losing, by teams is difficult to prove or recognize. Perhaps the team is just godawful and they aren’t trying to lose. NBA games often descend to the level of a pick-up contest anyway, so it’s not readily apparent whether that player isn’t playing defense because nobody in the game is playing defense or because the team has been instructed to stop trying. Professional athletes are also inherently competitive, and aren’t really capable of just turning off the switch.
Also, Houston’s owner, Les Alexander, is a notorious win-at-all-costs head honcho. He has frequently expressed his impatience to the media and reluctance to sit back for a rebuilding job. I believe Alexander would rather see his team make the playoffs, no matter how slim the chance is for a title, than tank or build around green youth. His fortuitous purchase of the team just before its two championships in the 1990s may have fostered such a strategy. This philosophy was expressed before the season when G.M. Daryl Morey tried to pull off a massive three-team trade for Pau Gasol and loads of cap size to attract instant stars.
The benefits to tanking could be substantial. The likely number one pick is Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, he of the freakish length, athleticism, and unibrow. The 6 ft. 10 Davis would stabilize Houston’s center position for years to come; the Rockets don’t have much for talented big men, and the ones they do have are raw or possess low ceilings. Andre Drummond of Connecticut fills a similar void, but the biggest prize may be North Carolina small forward Harrison Barnes. Houston has lacked a true star scorer at the swingman position since Tracy McGrady departed, and Barnes would be a great character guy to fit into Houston’s culture as well as a stellar athlete with scintillating perimeter touch. The Rockets couldn’t go wrong with any of these guys.
Of course, if Houston were to push for the playoffs, they would have some tough competition there as well just to make it. In fact, they would have to compete with 0-8 Washington for the best chance to win the NBA Draft lottery too, so whichever path the organization chooses, the results aren’t guaranteed. Right now, at least 10 teams are ahead of the Rockets in the Western Conference pecking order, and it’s difficult to determine any match-ups on paper at this point that Houston would be favored in. Are they even better than Phoenix, or the lowly New Orleans Hornets? It has yet to be proven.
So, should Houston tank, or battle for a playoff bid?
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