2012 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
The season isn’t even over yet but is it really too soon to start obsessing about our keepers or draft strategies for next season? If you have a life unlike me then the answer is probably yes. Thankfully I found a woman who loved me for the loser I am so obsessing about next season isn’t a problem. Of course, there is the NFL Draft which will affect things as will coaching changes and injuries which could occur in the Super Bowl or off season. Here is a preliminary look at my Running Back rankings for the 2012 season based on standard scoring.
1. ARIAN FOSTER (HOU): Despite being hampered by knee and hamstring injuries, Foster was able to finish 4th on the season with 238 points in standard scoring leagues. He also added 153 yards with 2 touchdowns in the playoffs against the Bengals as well as 132 yards rushing with a score against Baltimore’s 2nd ranked run defense. Foster is due for a nice pay day next season and has proven it doesn’t really matter who the opponent is. Houston looks to be set with the 4th easiest strength of schedule next season so if you buy into that it’s a bonus factor. The main concern here is his leading 343 carries which is putting mileage on those legs.
2. FRED JACKSON (BUF): Even after missing 6 1/2 games with injury, Jackson finished 14th among all running backs in total scoring. He is already near 100% recovered from his broken fibula and will resume workout activities before the Super Bowl. The Bills have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule and Jackson will regardless be the primary source of offense once again.
3. RAY RICE (BAL): Though little in stature, Rice proved to be very durable by playing in every game this season. He scored double digit fantasy points in 14 of the 16 games played, scoring 16 total touchdowns, one of them through the air. His 2,068 total yards were best in the league and the Ravens show no sign of slowing down next season. This team should stay largely intact offensively and though Rice has one of the toughest schedules next season, his involvement is second to none.
4. LESEAN MCCOY (PHI): McCoy scored double digit fantasy points in all but one of the games he played, racking up a league high 20 total touchdowns. Eight of those games he scored 18 or more points, despite the Eagles struggling as a whole. Next season will be a different story and the Eagles will undoubtedly be well prepared after a disappointing year with the dream team. McCoy has a legitimate claim to being the number one overall pick but the potential of this offense to score vertically knocks him down a bit.
5. MAURICE JONES-DREW (JAC): Drew was the heart and soul of the Jaguars anemic offense which ranked dead last in the pass game. Jones-Drew scored 11 of the Jags 21 offensive touchdowns despite being keyed on game after game. With Mike Mularkey now at the controls and a possible upgrade at quarterback, things should get easier on Drew next season. Mularkey turned Mike Turner into a scoring machine and will be salivating at the possibilities with a back as talented as Jones-Drew.
6. ADRIAN PETERSON (MIN): Like Fred Jackson, Peterson missed six games but still racked up the fantasy points. Peterson finished 7th in fantasy scoring by running backs despite the injury and despite three quarterback changes. With a full off season for Ponder to work, the Vikings should improve on their 28th ranked pass defense. Percy Harvin saw a huge jump in production and the Vikings are likely to take Justin Blackmon in the draft to compliment Harvin. With opposing defenses forced to respect the pass, Peterson will see a return to monster numbers.
7. MATT FORTE (CHI): Forte was able to amass 1,487 total yards before suffering a sprained MCL and missing the final 4 1/2 games of the season. With Mike Martz getting the boot, Forte should see a return to a more consistent workload carrying the ball. In the 5 games he carried the ball 20+ times, only once did he fail to rush for less than 116 yards. He will still continue to be used out of the backfield but should see more red zone touches and consistency with an offense that won’t work him to death.
8. MICHAEL TURNER (ATL): Turner faded down the stretch but was helped by a red hot start which saw him score six times in the first six weeks. The lockout and lack of training camp probably hampered his endurance the last several weeks, but a full season with the team should get him back on track. The Falcons hired Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter who loved using every ounce of Maurice Jones-Drew. Though there are better options in Atlanta’s pass game, Turner should thrive and continue his solid production.
9. DARREN MCFADDEN (OAK): He was on a tear before the Lis Franc injury which sat him out 9 games of the season. Only once did he dip below 11 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Though Palmer hit some major bumps in the road, the potential of the Raiders offense with him at the helm was undeniable. With a full off season to prepare, Palmer will finally be able to push defenses on their heels and give McFadden some breathing room. McFadden was able to rack up numbers with him as the focus and Palmer’s presence should see him possibly have a career year if he stays healthy.
10. STEVEN JACKSON (STL): Jackson has been a top ten pick every season because of his heavy workload and this season was no different. Jackson piled up 302 touches for 1,478 total yards with 6 scores. Jeff Fisher loves his running backs and loves veteran leadership. Jackson’s use should be no different next year but his total value depends on what moves the Rams make this off season to help Bradford and the offense. Brandon Lloyd made statements leading one to believe he would follow Josh McDaniels wherever he wound up. With Lloyd a free agent and McDaniels a Patriot, chances are Lloyd takes a ticket to Foxborough which leaves the Rams searching for help. If Fisher is able to bring in the right combination of receivers and develop Bradford, Jackson could thrive. Until then, he is a solid pick to round out the top ten.
11. FRANK GORE (SF): Gore is nearly as consistent as they come and managed to play in every game in 2011. Alex Smith’s maturation process as a quarterback to be respected paid off for Gore. With defenses forced to take the pass seriously, Gore was able to see lighter loads in games while still being effective. From weeks 4-9 (including a bye week) Gore rushed for 5 straight 100+ games and scored 4 times. The Niners should only get stronger offensively if they can find another piece to compliment Crabtree and Davis in the pass game. Though Gore is getting up there in age, Harbaugh knows how to use the back and get maximum effectiveness.
12. JAMAAL CHARLES (KC): Charles was injured in just the second game of the season and is likely to be a forgotten man in many drafts. He is likely to fall far lower than this 12th ranking and could pay off big for you in 2012. You will be getting a first round value at a second round price. Though the backfield is likely to be crowded with the emergence of Dexter McCluster and Jackie Battle, Charles should take lead duties and see a majority of the carries. With Battle likely playing the grinder role, Charles should be able to stay healthy long term and rack up the yards with his explosiveness. None of the Chief’s backs really impressed with a chance to shine so Charles very well could wind up seeing the increase in carries we expected in 2011.
13. RYAN MATHEWS (SD): Norv Turner committed to Mathews in the second half of the season, pushing Mike Tolbert aside and handing Mathews a heavy load. In 3 of his last 5 games, Mathews touched the ball 20+ times. Of those 5 games he rushed for 90+ yards 4 times and scored 3 touchdowns. Mathews eclipsed the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the first time in his young career and added 455 yards receiving. Turner is likely to pull out all the stops after a miserable season but retaining his job. The offense as a whole struggled for most the season but should be healthy and prepared in 2012.
14. DEMARCO MURRAY (DAL): The Cowboys finally found the back they have been waiting for in Murray. After taking the starting role in week 7, Murray scored double digit fantasy points in 5 of his 7 games before injuring his ankle. His breakout week 7 performance of 253 yards rushing set a Cowboys record, solidifying himself as the best kept secret Dallas didn’t even know about. With Felix Jones comfortable in the secondary back role and Murray a chance to keep the starting job with a solid camp, the Cowboys finally have the balance needed to compete. Expect a sizable increase in scores next season as Garrett draws up plays especially for the speedy back.
15. DARREN SPROLES (NO): While nobody will mistake Sproles for an every down back, his versatility make him a must own in most leagues. His 1,313 total yards and 9 scores were good for the 8th highest point total in fantasy for running backs. Sproles has cemented himself as a cog in the Saints wheel but his value could be very fickle depending on how Ingram returns from injury.
16. REGGIE BUSH (MIA): From week 13 through 16, Bush was one of the best fantasy backs available. Bush racked up 4 straight 100+ yards games with 2 scores and no less than 12 fantasy points. He surpassed the 1,000 yard mark with 1,086 and added 296 yards through the air. Though he finished the season 12th among fantasy backs, the presence of Daniel Thomas and his potential are likely to eat into the touches Bush received in the 3 games he was out. Though it won’t be much, the addition of a new head coach and questions on what the offensive philosophy will be bump him down to 16th.
17. MARSHAWN LYNCH (SEA): Though he finished 6th in scoring among fantasy backs, I just don’t buy it. Too much of his value was tied to his 12 touchdowns. In 5 games he rushed for 43 yards or less yet scored 4 times in those games. Without those scores he would have been right around this spot on the year. He had never rushed for more than 8 touchdowns in a season prior to this and doubled last year’s rushing output. While this could have been the year he put it all together, this also could have been a career year he will never reproduce. Taking him as a sure fire lead back is too much of a risk for a guy who has been in the league 6 years now.
18. JAHVID BEST (DET): Best’s concussion sealed his season after week 6, racking up 80 fantasy points before his departure. That was a pace which would have put him on the edge of a top ten back. His heavy use in the screen game limited the Lions offense until Kevin Smith made his return to the team. With Best anointing himself “fully recovered”, a solid season in this potent offense is not far fetched. The only concern here is that he is seeing the same doctor which handles Sidney Crosby (NHL). While he could have simply just chosen a known doctor, Crosby has a very severe case which has lingered for a while now and affected his play. If Best is healthy and cleared to play, there is no reason to think he can’t outperform this ranking.
19. SHONN GREENE (NYJ): This is exactly where Greene wound up in total points and should be his spot in 2012. Despite his 253 touches, Greene only had 5 games in double digit fantasy points. He rushed for 100+ yards only twice all season and was a pain for fantasy owners who likely drafted him much higher. With Tony Sporano taking the reigns to the offense, he is already touting a more physical style of play which means more grind it out football. Reggie Bush had a career season under Sporano so an uptick in Greene’s value is not out of reach. Still, his red zone touches will be dependent on Mark Sanchez improving. There is also the issue of having two solid red zone options in Plaxico Burress, Santonio Holmes, and Dustin Keller.
20. BEANIE WELLS (ARI): Though Wells had a breakout season, his injury history is too concerning not to take into consideration. Wells finished 15th in total points for fantasy backs but was hampered by hamstring and knee injuries. He is set to get his knee cleaned out in the off season and was really a boom or bust performer in 2011. In 6 of the 14 games he played he scored less than 6 fantasy points, scoring only 19 total fantasy points during most playoff dates. Wells is much like a Percy Harvin who has great potential game by game but could leave you flat. He is a very trustworthy #2 but not more.
21. WILLIS MCGAHEE (DEN): McGahee had a return to life this season, rushing for 1,199 yards and totaling 5 scores. If there is one guarantee on the Broncos it is they will run the ball a lot. There isn’t much reason to suspect that will change next season and McGahee had great success even though teams knew what was coming most of the time. Tim Tebow will be able to focus on his development as the secured starter next season which means we should see an improvement in the pass game. If defenses are forced to respect the pass some more, McGahee should see some more opportunities for longer runs and red zone scores.
22. JONATHAN STEWART & DEANGELO WILLIAMS (CAR): The two backs finished within 5 fantasy points of one another and each diminished the others fantasy potential. Stewart looked the better of the two and should be taken before Williams due to his upside. Williams had 8 games of 4 or less fantasy points but came on strong down the stretch as Stewart’s legs tired. As low end #2/Flex backs, the Carolina backfield is a solid choice.
23. LEGARRETTE BLOUNT (TB): Blount suffered from misuse and plain old abandonment most of the season by Raheem Morris. Morris and Olson were more concerned with getting Freeman into a rhythm than getting their workhorse back going. The current crop of head coach candidates are run heavy types so the potential for Blount is there. All of the questions surrounding him put him towards the bottom for now until we have a better idea of how he will be used.
24. CHRIS JOHNSON (TEN): Johnson had what is his worst season in fantasy, totaling just 4 scores and 1,047 yards rushing. The big problem this year was an off season which was shortened by the lockout and had Johnson more focused on contract than conditioning. This is an extremely low ranking for the back who should jump into the top 20 before the 2012 season kicks off. For now, this is a safe spot given what we know.
25. ROY HELU (WAS): Shanahan finally committed to a one back system and Helu paid him off by posting three consecutive 100+ rushing games and scoring twice in that span. Still, this is Shanahan and the return of Hightower along with Evan Royster will most likely make this a camp competition once again.
26. MARK INGRAM (NO): Ingram had season ending toe surgery and missed a total of 6 games this season. Still, he managed to post some decent numbers and scored 5 times. The presence of Darren Sproles and his involvement in the Saints offense limits Ingram’s upside though he should be as solid as they come as a #3 back.
27. CEDRIC BENSON (CIN): Benson only broke the century mark 3 times in 2011 and looked to have slowed a step this season. Though he rushed for 1,067 yards this season, most of it was due to a heavy work load and was not efficient. Benson had 8 games of 59 yards or less and needed 273 carries to get over the 1,000 yard mark. Far more than most backs who rushed for over 1,000 needed to that point. This is a guy in steady decline.
28. AHMAD BRADSHAW (NYG): Bradshaw found the end zone 9 times this year but that included a 3 score game against the Bills in week 6. He broke the century mark only once and was hampered by injury most of the season. He missed 4 games and is locked in a time share with Brandon Jacobs. Add to that the fact this is a passing offense now and Bradshaw becomes very unreliable.
29. PEYTON HILLIS (FA): Hillis’ value will depend highly on where he winds up signing. He is likely to find himself in a timeshare situation and had a huge decline in production this season due to injury. In ten games he only posted double digit fantasy points 3 times and only rushed for 100+ yards once. Being in a timeshare is not necessarily a bad thing since it will keep the bruiser healthy and hopefully more effective. He is still very young and this could be simply the Madden curse taking it’s toll. He too is likely to rise in stock once we know more.
30. RYAN GRANT/JAMES STARKS (GB): Both backs were plagued by injury and barely used given they have an elite pass offense working in front of them. Grant is set to be a Free Agent and his future with the team is up in the air. Regardless, neither back surpassed 580 rushing yards or scored more than twice.
31. BENJARVIS GREEN-ELLIS (NE): This was supposed to be a breakout season for the law firm but instead found himself 22nd among fantasy backs. His 11 scores saved his value but he rushed for 80+ yards only twice all season. Given Tom Brady’s penchant for passing and an upgrade at wide receiver positions likely this year, Green-Ellis can’t be trusted as anything more than a Flex play.
32. RAHARD MENDENHALL (PIT): Like Green-Ellis, Mendenhall only broke 80+ yards twice and was benefited by his 9 scores. He has been a PR issue for the Steelers with his public comments and most fans have been turned off by the back. The Steelers are a pass first team and saw no decline with Redman taking snaps. Any back can potentially step in and take over for Mendenhall and the extra negative attention does not bode well for his future in Pittsburgh.
FEATURED PARTNERS
- Raven Symone Addresses Rumors About Her Sexual Orientation, "ANTM" Girlfriend
- They Can't Spell, But They Tweet
- What's The Oldest Photo Of You On Facebook?
- MMA fighter King Mo -- Petitions Hulk Hogan for Wrestling Advice
- Tim Tebow -- Allegedly Asks for Twitter Photo to be Taken Down
- UFC Champ Jon 'Bones' Jones -- Arrested for DUI
- Mick Jagger, ‘Lazy Sunday 2,’ Kristen Wiig Sendoff and Other Highlights of the SNL Season Finale
- Mark Zuckerberg Gets Hitched
- Calvin Johnson Can Hit Home Runs Too
Recent Comments