Can James Shields duplicate 2011 in 2012?

Published: 27^th Jan 12 6:38 am

by aaronprice
aaronprice

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“Complete game James” had a career year in 2011 with a 16-12 record, 225K’s, 2.82 ERA, 11 complete games in 249.1 innings pitched. Since 2006, Shields has average 204 IP per season, and in 2011 he saw his largest year to year innings increase in his career with 46 additional frames (excluding his rookie year). So can James possibly get better than his 2011 performance?

Well, the first thing that jumps off the page at me when looking a James’ 2011 campaign was his insanely low BABIP of .258 (career .299). When looking at his low BABIP and his FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.42, it suggest that while he pitched well in 2011 that there were plenty of balls that bounced his way. Also, Shields had an incredible strand rate in 2011 of 79.6% (8th best in MLB) compare that to his career mark of 72.78%. Probably what helped that stand rate was that James did change his batted ball profile in 2011 by inducing more ground balls with a GB ratio of 46.2%, a 4.9% increase from 2010. That ground ball ratio coupled with his strike out rate of 8.12K/9 make a nice recipe for starter to succeed, however I highly doubt that he will be able to replicate the very low BABIP, the career high strand rate, and keep his ERA down in the high 2.00’s in 2012. Quite simply, James Shields 2011 is as good as it’s going to get for the work horse righty. After reviewing his stats, I think that his “luck” will begin to normalize in 2012. As for Shields 2012, I projecting 14-13, 3 CG, 4.12 ERA, 185K’s which still has value in fantasy circles and in the real world, just don’t expect the monster performance he put up in 2011. I see James as a perfect sale high candidate for you keeper leaguers.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman