Fantasy Baseball – Breakouts and Pretenders
It’s getting closer to draft day, and that means it’s important to separate last years breakout candidates into legitimate stars and pretenders. Today we’re going to look at 6 players that will be overvalued based on their performances last year. Some of them are still quality players who deserve a spot on your roster – but won’t be worth it based on where they’re drafted.
SP Jeremy Hellickson – The 2011 rookie of the year had a fantastic season with the Rays, going 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA. So what’s the problem with Hellickson? While he showed dominant strikeout rates in the minors, his 5.57 K/9 in the majors was very mediocre. Especially when compared to his 3.43 BB/9. He showed significant flyball tendencies, which won’t be too much of a problem in Tropicana Field with the Rays talented gloves in the outfield. But when he’s playing in a smaller park, those flyball ways are going to come back to haunt him. Hellickson also had a 223 BABIP last season, so he’s bound to give up significantly more hits this year.
In the minors Hellickson struck out more than a batter an inning, so it’s possible he was focused on pitching to contact in his first season in the majors. He’s not a flamethrower, as Hellickson averages 91 MPH on his fastball. So one theory about the high strikeout rate in the minors was the result of his strong command, allowing him to fool lesser hitters despite not having the best “stuff”. If that’s the case, then Hellickson won’t be anything like the star he was predicted to be.
Fantasy Prediction – 12 wins, 4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 125 K
SP Ryan Vogelsong – I’m a little sceptical after a player posts a career year after being out of baseball for 4 years. Vogelsong pitched for the first time since 2006, and had a terrific season with the Giants going 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA. Unlike Hellickson he showed a solid K:BB ratio with strong groundball tendencies, which makes it more likely that Vogelsong will continue to produce at a high level. However, he stranded 80% of his runners, and even the best pitchers typically strand closer to 70%. On top of that his FIP was 3.67 while his XFIP was 3.85, so it’s not likely that Vogelsong will put up another sub 3 ERA.
Fantasy Prediction – 11 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 150 K
C Alex Avila – He struggled in 2010 with his first opportunity as the starting catcher, but he took it to a whole other level in 2011.Avila was one of the top hitting catchers in baseball, with a 295 BA, 19 homers and 76 runs driven in. The power is real, and he should remain an above average catcher for 2012. But it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to sustain a 366 BABIP, so we should expect Avila’s average to drop.
Fantasy Prediction – 273 BA, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 55 runs, 0 SB
C Yadier Molina – He’s always been known for his glove, but last season he had a career year with the bat. Molina scored career highs in average (305), home runs (14) RBI (65) and runs (55). He’s never come close to any of these numbers before, and it’s unlikely he will again. He shouldn’t be on your fantasy team if you plan on winning.
Fantasy Prediction – 265 BA, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 37 runs, 3 SB
1B/OF Michael Morse – After showing signs of a breakout in 2010, Morse delivered in 2011 with a dynamic season for the Nationals. He hit 303 with 31 homers and 95 runs driven in. Morse has cut down on his swinging strike rates and made significantly more contact in the past, which makes his breakout look pretty legitimate. However, very few hitters can strikeout more than 3 times for every walk like Morse can while hitting over 300. The power is real, and he’ll be a great source of production from a 1B/OF spot. But don’t expect another 300 BA season without him cutting down on the strikeouts.
Fantasy prediction – 270 BA, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 82 runs, 1 SB
JJ Hardy – Coming off a down year with the Twins, he was traded to Baltimore and had one of the best seasons of his career. He reached the 30 home run plateau for the first time, posting some of the best power numbers of his career. However, he struggled to stay healthy and that cost him a lot of time.
Hardy’s always been an injury risk, and because of that you never know what kind of production you’ll get out of him. He’s been very inconsistent during his career. Hardy is one of the better shortstops around, but don’t overpay for him based on last year. And make sure if you do get him, to keep a shortstop on the bench who can fill in for when Hardy inevitably takes a trip to the disabled list.
Fantasy Prediction – 265 BA, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 57 runs, 0 SB
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