Has This Mariner Found His Compass?

Published: 3rd Feb 12 7:52 am
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by aaronprice
aaronprice

 

blog.seattlepi.com

Every year there are a couple of players that simply don’t produce up to expectations.  Whether it’s due to injuries or off the field distractions it can derail a player’s career path.  However, we must not forget the player’s true skill set when looking for the bounce back as it paints a clear picture to future success.  Today we will look at Justin Smoak of the Mariners.  I’m hoping this lost Mariner has found his coordinates.

The Mariners acquired Smoak via the Cliff Lee trade in 2010 and he has been penciled into the starting lineup ever since.  In 2011, Smoak battled injuries and grieved the loss of his father.  Those two issues really put a damper on his season as he went on to hit .234/.323/.410 with 15 HR, 55 RBI, and 39 Runs.  Not what you would expect out of the 13th ranked prospect in 2010. Well, it’s time to wipe the slate clean.  It’s 2012, and I think Smoak is going to have a bounce back campaign.  Smoak has posted incredible walk rates of 14.4%(avg.) throughout his minor/major league career.  In 2011, he walked 11.2% of the time, so I would expect that number to come up a little to the 12-13% in 2012.  Another attribute to his game is his power.  During his AA/AAA days, his average ISO was .180.  We all know that SAFCO Field is not a hitter’s paradise, but I would expect Smoak’s power to return in 2012.  I’m looking for 22-25 HR out of the switch hitting 1B/DH option.  There are three skills that never slump, Patience, Power and Defense.  Smoak’s got two of those skills nailed.   Let’s not forget the M’s lineup should be greatly improved in 2012.  Hopefully, Ichro returns to form, Dustin Ackley picks up where he left off, and Jesus Montero shows the bat that all the scouts expect him to have.  The M’s line up should look like this come opening day: Ichro, Ackley, Montero, and then Smoak.  There should be plenty of ducks on the pond for Smoak to drive in during 2012.  This year I’m looking for a bounce back with a .260/.350/.450 line to go along with 23HR, 80 RBI, and 70 Runs.  Meaning he will great out produce his lowly ADP of 220.07, 13.2%.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

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