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If you happen to go in another direction other than OF with your first two sections, Have no fear. There are plenty of value plays with huge upside potential lurking deep in the draft. For the sake of this piece we will define value as outperforming there ADP.
Andrew McCutchen ADP 26.58
This will probably be the last time you can draft this budding star outside the second round. Last year was a hiccup on another wise ascending career path. McCutchen posted a .259 BA, but it was largely BABIP driven. His career average BABIP is .309, however last year it dipped to .291 resulting in a lower than expected batting average. McCutchen gets on base at a nice clip, career average .365 OBP, so he should have plenty of scoring and stolen base opportunities. He posted a career high in HR last year with 23 with an ISO of .198. He’s on the cusp of a 30HR/30SB season with a .280 avg.
Ryan Braun ADP 28.30
It’s hard to believe the reigning NL MVP can be a value play, but the looming 50 game suspension seems to be weighing heavily on the minds of drafters. No doubt that his value will be affected by the loss of games, however put your doubts aside. If you were to pro-rate his 2011 season to 112 games, his stats would have been 23HR, 76 Runs, 77 RBI and 23 SB to along with a .332 average. Not bad production from the 28th pick in the fantasy draft. While no player has ever won the arbitration case for PED’s Braun stands as good of chance if any. I give a 10% that he is waved of the suspension for medical reasons. If he beats the system, you could have yourself a top 5 pick at a third round price.
Carl Crawford ADP 40.54
Moving to the big time and landing the big contract coupled with injuries seemed to prove cumbersome to the usual fantasy stud. His average was brought down by a low BABIP .299 (career average .328). The runs and the stolen bases was the result of the lowest OBP of his career .289 (career average .333). Well, that’s not the Carl Crawford profile we all know. Look for a bounce back in batting average and on-base percentage in 2012, resulting in more runs and stolen bases. The Crawford of Tampa Bay will probably never return, but I still believe he is capable of quality production. Pencil him in for .285/.330/.430 with 15 HR, 84 Runs, 70 RBI with 30 SB.
Desmond Jennings ADP 55.91
This Ray got off to a hot start before cooling in Aug/Oct. In his rookie campaign he hit .259/.356/.449 with 10 HR, 44 Runs, and 25 RBI with 20 SB. He showed great plate discipline with a walk rate of 10.8% in 2011. The average may not be above .270 but he has on-base skills the runs and stolen bases should come in by the bushels. Draft him and you can all but guarantee 100 runs with 40 plus stolen bases.
B.J. Upton ADP 67.42
Looks like the Rays out field is full of value. B.J. Upton, while he has never reached the expectations bestowed upon him early in his career, provides above average stolen bases and power out of the CF position. Last year he cracked 23 HR to go along with 36 SB. Upton will strike out a ton, but he also walks at a high rate (11.1% in 2011). With his solid OBP he will provide 30 plus stolen bases with a gaggle of runs and RBI. Don’t forget this is B.J.’s contract year. I’d put 30HR/30SB value on him heading into 2012.
Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman
All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com
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