Pineda in the Big Apple, What Could Happen?
bleacherreport.com
After winning a rotation spot out of Spring Training, Pineda quickly put the MLB on alert with his powerful fastball in 2011. I have to say, I was truly blown away while watching him pitch at times last year. You know a pitcher is special when the batter knows what is coming and still can’t hit it. I quickly became a believer in his awesomeness and even bought some Pineda memorabilia that’s now hanging in my office. Some commentators were even saying that his ceiling was higher than that of fellow ace King Felix. But as the year went on, we began to notice some flaws in his game. Then out of nowhere it seemed, a block buster trade happened with New York. The trade involved another top prospect, catcher Jesus Montero. With the trade from cozy SAFCO field to the fish bowl the Yankees play in, what can we expect from Michael Pineda in his sophomore year?
With his fastball/slider combination, Pineda baffled hitters. He struck out batters at a terrific rate (9.11K’s/9IP) while keeping his walks down (2.89BB/9IP). Those are two of the attributes to look for when evaluating pitchers. He finish the season with 173K’s, 55BB, to go along with a 3.74 ERA. The third skill to look for when evaluating pitchers is an above average ground ball rate. And that’s where this Honey Moon ends, the league average (LA) GB rate is 44.5%, Pineda’s GB rate of 36.3% just doesn’t cut it. Also, Pineda is an extreme fly ball pitcher (44.8% vs. LA of 36.0%) and that plays really well at SAFCO field, but I have my doubts at Yankee Stadium. During the 2011 campaign, Pineda also developed some telling splits. Pineda pitched to a 4.40 ERA away from SAFCO and a 2.92 at while at SAFCO. He also had troubles with lefties (3.99 ERA) as opposed to righties (3.48ERA). The competition and the spot light also get amped up in the AL East. For example, the teams in the AL east average 4.8 runs per game as opposed to AL west team average of 4.2 runs per game.
The splits, both home and road and lefty vs. righty, plus the offensive atmosphere that is the AL East have put me on guard when it comes to Pineda’s 2012 value and beyond. Pineda definitely has the raw tools to succeed as a competent #2 behind CC in NY; however, I would temper my expectations after coming off a superb rookie year. Currently Pineda is being drafted around the 96.37 spot and is the average 26th pitcher off the board. Expect a dip in K rate, an increase in walks, and an increase in home runs allowed resulting in a higher than desired ERA. As for 2012, look for a 13W-10L, 173K’s, 66BB, with a 4.62 ERA. Not the step forward expected after his break out rookie season.
Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman
ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com
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