With Week 1 upon us and most fantasy football owners with their drafts in the books, now comes the weekly dilemma over lineup decisions. On a weekly basis through the season, I will highlight players at the four positions all fantasy owners have to fill each week regardless of their league settings-quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end- and choose a player that has a chance to exceed expectations (a “stud) and another that has significant downside (a “dud”).
Without further ado, here is the Week 1 edition of “Studs and Duds”.
Quarterback
Stud: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons generated a lot of buzz during the preseason as they move their offense to a more wide-open, pass-heavy scheme. That is clearly good news for Ryan, and the first game of the season brings a matchup with a Kansas City Chiefs defense that lost cornerback Brandon Carr in free agency and may find themselves without new top cover guy Brandon Flowers (heel) in the game. Add in the one-game suspension of linebacker Tamba Hali and injuries to linebacker Derrick Johnson (ankle) and safety Kendrick Lewis (shoulder), and the Kansas City defense has a chance to be very depleted in Week 1.
“Matty Ice” should be able to put together a terrific game, and anyone that drafted him expecting a big season should not wind up disappointed after the first week.
Dud: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
I’ve been one, and perhaps the only one, that cautiously expects Sanchez to assert himself as the Jets’ starting quarterback this season and make Tim Tebow a relative afterthought. The team’s offensive struggles during the preseason, as they went without a touchdown until the final game when both Sanchez and Tebow sat out, have been well documented and may be a harbinger of what is to come.
Sanchez will most certainly get the starting nod in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills, but the Jets’ coaches have been fairly guarded about Tebow’s ultimate role on offense and no one will really know how that will shake out until a game that counts. With that uncertainty and going against an improved Bills’ defense, even the most optimistic fantasy owner should avoid using Sanchez this week.
Running Back
Stud: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
It seems all of the news surrounding Forte was negative this offseason, from a holdout (since resolved) to the Bears’ additions on the offensive side of the ball (running back Michael Bush and wide receiver Brandon Marshall) creating the potential of reduced role for him this season. The promotion of offensive line coach Mike Tice to offensive coordinator in place of Mike Martz offsets some of that downside as Chicago should move toward a more conventional, balanced offense this season, but it’s fair to say most fantasy owners are not all-in on Forte at this point.
Week 1 brings a very nice matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (ESPN standard scoring) in 2011 and will be without their top tackler in linebacker Pat Angerer (foot). The Colts are also making the transition to a 3-4 defense this season, so their first game under full game conditions creates the potential for serious issues. There should be plenty of touches to go around even if Bush takes some away from Forte, and Forte deserves a bump above Bush in PPR leagues.
Dud: Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins
Bush set career-highs in carries (216) and rushing yards (1,086) last season, while also tying his career best in rushing touchdowns with six. But it’s a time of change in Miami with a new offensive scheme, a new head coach (Joe Philbin) and the departure of the team’s best wide receiver in Brandon Marshall after the Dolphins traded him this offseason. Oh, and a rookie quarterback will start the season as first-round pick Ryan Tannehill steps in immediately.
Bush has said he expects his role to change this season, and perhaps he will again be used as a versatile weapon with the shortcomings the Dolphins have at wide receiver. A Week 1 matchup with the Houston Texans stands to be difficult, as they allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season (ESPN scoring) and allowed among the fewest receptions to the position (58) as well. Bush is not necessarily unstartable depending on how the rest of your running back situation looks, but be sure to keep your expectations in check in a tough matchup.
Wide Receiver
Stud: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Bryant’s off the field issues are well known by this point, even to the point the Cowboys have set some rules for him to help keep him out of the headlines. But there is no denying his on-field talent and a training camp knee injury looks to be in the rearview mirror heading to Week 1 against the New York Giants.
The Giants have a very banged up secondary right now with cornerbacks Terrell Thomas (knee), Prince Amukamara (ankle) and Jayron Hosley (turf toe) all possibly out for Wednesday night’s game. Dallas tight end Jason Witten (spleen) also looks likely to at least be limited in the game if he’s even active, so Bryant should get all the targets he can handle from quarterback Tony Romo. He should get his third season off on the right foot this week, and there aren’t many wide receivers with more upside.
Dud: Brandon Lloyd, New England Patriots
Much has been made of New England signing Lloyd this offseason as he will be reunited with Josh McDaniels, who is the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. Lloyd had his best season (77 receptions, 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns) when the two were together in 2010 with the Denver Broncos and he adds something to the Patriots’ offense that it lacked on the outside last season.
That said, the top two New England pass catchers are still tight ends (Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez) and that will not go away in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans did lose top cornerback Corteland Finnegan this offseason, but it can be assumed new top cover guy Alterraun Verner will be shadowing Lloyd virtually exclusively all day next Sunday. The possibility of a one-sided game also creates some risk of limited opportunities for Lloyd and the entire passing game, and he is not a matchup-proof fantasy starter like Gronkowski and Hernandez.
Tight End
Stud: Fred Davis, Washington Redskins
Davis was very productive in the 12 games he played last season prior to being suspended for four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, with 59 catches for 796 yards and three touchdowns. He is still in line to be a primary part of the Redskins’ passing game this season, and the fact he will be motivated to prove he is worth a long-term contract from Washington or another team bodes well for a good season in 2012.
Davis will be an important safety valve for rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III this season, and that will be no different in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were fairly generous to opposing pass offenses last season, and they lost top cornerback Tracy Porter in free agency this offseason. Washington did add Pierre Garcon to their group of wide receivers this offseason, but otherwise they have little in terms of proven pass catchers. Davis has sneaky upside this week, as the Redskins are likely to be forced to throw the ball plenty in order to keep up with the Saints’ offense.
Dud: Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos
Tamme will reunite with Peyton Manning this season, and was quickly annointed as a potential fantasy sleeper given how productive he was in 2010 (64 receptions, 631 yards) as a fill in for Dallas Clark when he and Manning were with the Colts. It’s worth mentioning that Manning likely vouched for the team to bring Tamme aboard, so his role could be significant all season if Manning stays healthy.
A tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers is looming for Week 1, and there are still questions about Manning’s arm strength and overall health at this point. The Broncos added a second tight end via free agency this offseason in Joel Dreessen, which could further dilute Tamme’s opportunities in all areas of the field and in particular in the red zone. Steelers’ defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will definitely have something dialed up or Manning and the entire Denver offense, which gives all involved fairly significant downside this week.
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