Monday Night Football Fantasy Preview
Countless fantasy owners have been unable to focus on work or school on this Monday in December because of one thing. That one thing is that their fantasy football season hangs in the balance tonight in what guarantees to be a thrilling game no matter how you look at it. The 11-1 Houston Texans enter Foxboro Stadium tonight to face the 9-3 New England Patriots in a matchup involving the highest combined winning percentage in NFL history.
Every owners needs are different. Some may need only Arian Foster to run for 50 yards while others may need him to explode for 120 yards and three TDs to pull off a miraculous comeback. No matter the scenario, you have to appreciate the magnitude of fantasy playoffs coming down to a classic Monday Night showdown. Houston and New England (along with the Denver Broncos) are the favorites vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Tonight features a potential AFC Championship preview with tremendous regular season implications on the line. The Texans hold the better record but it’s the Patriots that enter the game as 5.5 point favorites. This can be attributed to the fact that the Patriots find themselves with the fewest giveaways and most takeaways which has given them the highest turnover percentage in the league. Their average turnover margin of +2.0 per game is tops in over a decade. In addition to that their average winning margin of 14.2 per game is the highest any team since the undefeated regular season by the 2007 Patriots.
Quarterback Preview
Tom Brady (season stats): 3537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.6 QBR, 64.8% Comp%, 19 Sacks
Matt Schaub (season stats): 3062 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs, 94.5 QBR, 64.4% Comp %, 15 Sacks
Tom Brady (last 4 weeks): 892 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 107.1 QBR, 64.7% Comp %, 5 Sacks
Matt Schaub (last 4 weeks): 1049 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 91.1 QBR, 67.4% Comp%, 5 Sacks
Tom Brady (projection): 290 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
Matt Schaub (projection): 280 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Running Back Preview
Arian Foster (season stats): 283 car, 1102 yards, 3.9 ypc, 13 tds
Stevan Ridley (season stats): 225 car, 1010 yards, 4.5 ypc, 9 tds
Arian Foster (last 4 weeks): 91 car, 332 yards, 3.6 ypc, 3 tds
Stevan Ridley (last 4 weeks): 75 car, 294 yards, 3.9 ypc, 4 tds
Arian Foster (projection): 20 car, 105 yards, 2 TDs
Stevan Ridley (projection): 16 car, 90 yards, 1 TD
Wide Receiver Preview
Andre Johnson (season stats): 74 rec, 1114 yards, 3 tds, 112 targets
Wes Welker (season stats): 92 rec, 1064 yards, 4 tds, 133 targets
Andre Johnson (last 4 weeks): 32 rec, 552 yards, 1 td, 50 targets
Wes Welker (last 4 weeks): 32 rec, 328 yards, 2 tds, 50 targets
Andre Johnson (projection): 10 rec, 130 yards, 1 TD, 16 targets
Wes Welker (projection): 11 rec, 115 yards, 1 TD, 15 targets
Defense Preview
New England Defense (season stats): 21.7 ppg, 381.0 yards/game, +2.0 turnover margin, 1.2 INT/game, 1.6 fumble rec/game, 2.1 sacks/game
Houston Defense (season stats): 18.4 ppg, 322.6 yards/game, +1.2 turnover margin, 1.2 INT/game, 1.0 fumble rec/game, 3.1 sacks/game
New England Defense (last 3 weeks): 19.7 ppg, 376.7 yards/game, +2.7 turnover margin, 1.3 INT/game, 2.0 fumble rec/game, 2.0 sacks/game
Houston Defense (last 3 weeks): 26.0 ppg, 445.7 yards/game, +1.3 turnover margin, 1.0 INT/game, 1.7 fumble rec/game, 3.1 sacks/game
New England Defense (projection): 24 points allowed, 395 yards allowed, 2 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery, 2 Sacks
Houston Defense (projection): 37 points allowed, 410 yards allowed, 0 INT, 0 Fumble Recovery, 3 Sacks
Game Prediction
Score: 37-24 New England
Skeptics may credit this to the fact that the Patriots have played the NFL’s easiest schedule have played only four opponents with winning records through week 13. Supremacy will be put to the test as the NFL’s best record faces off against a statistical juggernaut.
