With the news that the Seattle Seahawks signed WR Percy Harvin, many fantasy football owners instantly started imagining the huge stat lines he could produce. However, despite all the attention he is currently getting, Harvin may be a bit of a risky pick this season.
One thing fantasy owners are underestimating is how much Seattle moves the chains on the ground. They were ranked 27th last year in passing yards (189.4) and were conversely ranked third in rushing yards (161.2). Simply put, Seattle loves to run the ball.
RB Marshawn Lynch will be guaranteed to get the ball at least 300 times out of the backfield this season. Also, QB Russell Wilson added another 489 yards on the ground for the Hawks in 2012, so his ability to run the ball will also limit Harvin’s touches. The propensity of the team to hand the ball off to Lynch or to have Wilson run the read-option will only take away from the wideout’s fantasy value.
Harvin has been known to run the ball out of the backfield as well, but I don’t think they will have the guy they paid $67 million trying to make the corner too often. The receiver only weighs 184 pounds, so it may be wiser to have the speedster stick to running screens or crossing routes. The less he gets hit, the better.
Also, Harvin has never produced like a number one fantasy receiver. He has been in the NFL for four seasons, but he has never scored more than nine total touchdowns in a season. Most people fall in love with the fact that Harvin can add receiving yards, rushing yards, and return yards, but they have hardly transitioned into many touchdowns over the course of his fantasy career. Fantasy football is about touchdowns, and Harvin simply isn’t the best at finding the end zone.
Even more concerning is the issue with his migraines. Harvin has suffered from crippling migraines since he was in college and they have been so bad that he has been forced to miss several games throughout his career with the malady. He was slowed last year by ankle/migraine issues, which caused him to miss a career-high seven contests and eventually end the year on the disabled list. He claims that they are completely behind him, but that still remains to be seen.
It is extremely difficult to justify using a late first or early second round pick on a star that could potentially sit out at the last minute. Seattle plays the majority of their games in the late afternoon, so it will not leave fantasy owners many options if he doesn’t play.
Harvin will be a risky start each week and that isn’t what you want from your number one receiver. I would draft Harvin as a second receiver all day long, but with the hype surrounding him right now, he won’t fall that far in the draft. It would be best to simply avoid the wideout in 2013.
After all, Seattle is where wide receivers go to die.