To borrow from a rather negative conversation Sports Illustrated’s Doug Farrar and I had about the Detroit Lions on Twitter recently, “(Brandon) Pettigrew dead last in DYAR among qualifying TEs. Targets are an issue, but (Matt) Stafford‘s red zone reads — woof.” The Lions offense provided plenty of opportunities but was downright frustrating last season.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR redraft format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Overrated: Brandon Pettigrew (133, 15), Mikel Leshoure (127, 44)
DYAR refers to Pro Football Outsiders’ metric for total value, and said tight end Pettigrew did not measure, dropping passes at some of the worst times and only recording 59 catches for 567 yards on 102 targets, despite an envious combination of size, speed and money (2009 first-round selection). Meanwhile, Leshoure gets bumped up in fantasy drafts due to his presumed red-zone role, but I think Reggie Bush might actually perform better in that capacity as well.
Underrated: Reggie Bush (32, 18), Ryan Broyles (139, 51)
We can kill Bush for getting injured often early in his career, but during his time in Miami he played 31 out of 32 games. He also tallied 5.0 and 4.3 YPC averages and 78 catches over two years. An offense that passes constantly and gets the ball to their backs in space will be ideal for Bush. Broyles’ rookie season was cut tragically short by injury – much like his college career — but it’s hard to ignore the production once his targets increased around Week 7. He maintained a 73 percent catch percentage and recorded 126 yards on Thanksgiving in the week before his season-ending injury.