The New England Patriots‘ composite fantasy value among skill-position players figures to make a dramatic shift from the pass to the run side in 2013, and certain players should benefit mightily while others see their draft stock suffer greatly.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR redraft format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Underrated: Stevan Ridley (21, 14), Shane Vereen (77, 31)
Vereen is surging up fantasy mock draft boards but I still don’t think he is nearly high enough. He will fill the role left by Danny Woodhead and the imprisoning of Aaron Hernandez should lead to Vereen’s role becoming all the more versatile. I believe that Bill Belichick will look at the roster he has and demand his team play to its strengths. That means Ridley will add even more carries to his run total and probably top the 300-mark.
Overrated: Tom Brady (31, 4), Aaron Dobson (148, 53)
As I said, the Patriots will play not just more toward their strengths, but heavily toward their strengths with a run-focused offense. Brady is a great quarterback, but a heavy run focus combined with how sneaky-good I believe their defense will be means Brady gets bumped out of the top 5 quarterback conversation in fantasy. This will also deplete the value of the wide receiver crapshoot unfolding in training camp. Dobson may emerge as the shot-play guy, but I’m holding reservations on him as a viable fantasy starter in 2013.