Last season slid down the tubes with a shockingly poor stretch by quarterback Josh Freeman. His ability to tap into the strong midseason stretch of play — before fizzling out dramatically — will have colossal effects on the other fantasy values on this new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR redraft format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Underrated: Josh Freeman (154, 22), Vincent Jackson (37, 12)
I will not consider myself the conductor of the Freeman bandwagon in any fashion, but I am not ready to give up on him. Elevated performance in late comeback situations and stretches like the one that saw him record 100-plus quarterback rating in five-consecutive games last season keeps me holding out hope of Freeman putting it all together. This happening would massively boost the fantasy value of V-Jax, who already remains one of the league’s very best deep threats.
Overrated: Doug Martin (2, 2), Tampa Bay Defense (196, 16)
I really like Martin’s strength, speed and especially quick-twitch movement in the open field, but No. 2 overall is a couple spots high for me. Give me steadier, more proven dual-threat backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy, as Martin’s rookie year seemed a little uneven a couple huge performances skewing the averages a great deal. This is a tough call as I’m fairly high on Tampa’s defense. Still, I expect there to be some growing pains with all the starting personnel changes this offseason. I’ll probably end up waiting for them to get dropped early in the season and pick them up in hopes that things gel midway.