Let’s set the record straight once and for all because I’ve heard, read and seen enough. Until he proves otherwise – and he has yet to do so – Houston Texans running back Arian Foster has been and will again be a fantasy football monster, period.
I too have read the prognostications of his sure-to-be bust/injury-prone season, but I have yet to find any statistical or historical data to back up this assumption. With that said, for grins, let’s take a look at the popular reasoning behind shunning the perennial fantasy superstar.
Let’s break down a few of the “Foster Myths.”
One of my personal favorite brands placed on Foster is that he is injury-prone. Sure, he misses a few practices here and there in preseason, and he has yet to carry the ball for Houston in a preseason game, but what top-tier workhorse fantasy running back hasn’t?
Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy and even perennial no. 1 pick Adrian Peterson have missed games for their teams this preseason, but that hasn’t stopped them getting their fair share of fantasy love.
Here’s the bottom line on Foster and his plethora of injuries throughout his career. In three years as the Texans’ lead back, he has started 45 of 48 games. Only in one of the three seasons has he not played all 16 games. Remember folks, the preseason means nothing, Fantasy football is based on regular season stats, and Foster is a mainstay in the Texans backfield in the regular season.
Let’s quickly discard the next stereotype. Foster is not an “old” running back. As I said earlier, he has only played three full seasons in the NFL and he is a ripe 26-years old. This excuse is simply ridiculous.
The final myth is his regression. Yes, I know Foster’s yards per carry has dropped by point something per carry, but if that is the mere basis for your regression argument, you are missing the forest for the trees, my friend.
Foster’s totals last season were just over 100 yards and one touchdown less than his first season as the Texans’ lead back. He rushed for over 1400 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. What fantasy football world do you live in where this is not considered a monster season? A guarantee of 1400-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns — a realistic stat line for Foster in 2013 — is fine by me, I’ll take his “regression.”
Finally, I write in great lengths about my phobia of top-five projected fantasy football backs because of their high bust potential. In the last five years, backs projected to finish in the top five simply don’t. There are, however, two exceptions to this rule. Peterson is one and you guessed it, Foster is the other.
The guy is reliable, dependable and a stat monster – period. Yet I have seen him fall as far as the sixth running back off the board in mock drafts.
Now, I understand how easy it is to get caught up in the hype prior to any fantasy season. After you read the same thing over and over again, there comes a point where you start to believe there has to be some truth to it.
Here’s the Foster truth I leave you with. If you make the decision to listen to the hype and avoid him due to the countless myths, you’ll be kicking yourself come December. Foster is still the poster child for fantasy football dominance, and there is no indication that will change in 2013.