2013 Fantasy Football: 10 Players Who Will Be Drafted Way Too High
2013 Fantasy Football: 10 Players Who Will Be Drafted Way Too High
One of my favorite parts of every Fantasy Football draft is when an owner takes someone way too early. The whole room sees it, and if your league is anything like mine, they don’t hesitate to let him know it.
The key to building a good roster is to stay away from these kind of picks. It‘s all about value in fantasy football drafts. If you get a certain guy in the second round, it could be a bad pick. If you grab the same guy in the fourth round, you might have just won your league.
The problem is, the way-too early picks sneak up on you. You have no idea as you're making the pick that you’ve grabbed someone way too high. Usually, all the rankings you downloaded back you up. You’re confident, this is going to be your year.
Then, about four weeks into the season, you realize the error of your ways. You take a look at your roster, wondering why you can’t get a win, and you realize that you reached on a young guy you were sure was going to break out, or an older guy who just doesn’t have it anymore. Maybe, even worse, you drafted the guy who had a breakout year last season and is turning out to be a one-year wonder.
But, have no fear. This year you’re going to be prepared. This year you’re going to know where the land mines in your draft are lurking, and you’re going to gracefully sidestep them on your way to fantasy glory.
These are the top 10 players that are going to be drafted way too high in your fantasy football draft.
10. Matthew Stafford
Just one year ago, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford looked to be on his way towards living up to his billing as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 draft.
He’s come back down to earth since then. Last year, he threw for 4,967 yards and 20 touchdowns. Not a terrible year, but not a great one either out of a player that most consider a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Quarterback, after you get past the top three, is deep this year. Don’t waste an early-round pick on Stafford when you can grab someone in the later rounds who has the chance to put up the same kind of points.
9. Steven Jackson
They say the best predictor of future results is past results. While that may be true in some cases, it isn’t always the case for NFL running backs.
Steven Jackson has been one of the most productive, reliable backs in all of football the last decade. He was as steady as it gets in fantasy football, and a true workhorse back for the St. Louis Rams.
But Father Time catches up with everyone, eventually. This looks to be the year that it will catch up with Jackson. His new team, the Atlanta Falcons, doesn’t feature a down-hill running game like he’s used to.
Jackson may have a good year this season, but I would always rather err on the side of caution when it comes to older running backs.
8. Frank Gore
Frank Gore carried the San Francisco 49ers offense through their dark years. Too bad now that they have a dynamic quarterback and a sold offensive line, he’s past his prime.
Not only that, he suddenly finds himself in a crowded backfield. LaMichael James had a breakout year last season and Kendall Hunter looks to be fully healed from his Achilles injury last season. That means that Gore could end up as the odd man out by the end of the year.
Considering his age, Gore has been remarkably reliable the last few years. He’ll once again go very early in your draft — stay away and let someone else take the risk that this is the year he falls off.
7. Tom Brady
It kills me to say it, it really does. I like Tom Brady so much it should be illegal. But, the truth is, there are going to be times this year that he and the young receivers on his team will struggle to get on the same page.
Despite how good Brady still is, there are going to be some weeks that the New England Patriots offense has to rely on the running game to get them a win. If that happens, Brady will be a disappointment in the fantasy world.
He’s likely to get grabbed early in your draft. If you can’t get one of the top three quarterbacks, let someone else take him next and wait until later in the draft to grab one of the good, young signal callers.
6. Alfred Morris
Alfred Morris was a fantasy darling last year. If you’re anything like me, you watched someone else in your league snatch him up on the waiver wire and ride him all the way to a championship.
But this year, Morris won’t sneak up on anyone. Defenses will be geared up to stop him, especially if quarterback Robert Griffin III doesn’t threaten to run as much as he did last year.
Morris is a great example of someone who’s good, someone I would like on my team this year, but someone I won’t have because I know another owner is going to take him way too early.
5. Roddy White
The Atlanta Falcons offense is going to be one of the most explosive units in the league. Unfortunately for Roddy White, that’s because he’s no longer the top target for quarterback Matt Ryan.
Julio Jones is going to be that guy this year. White is better suited as a No. 2 wideout anyway. The Atlanta offense is better with him getting less attention, but your fantasy team isn’t if you use an early draft pick on him.
4. Eddie Lacy
Every year, there’s a rookie running back who gets glowing reviews from the local beat writers and skyrockets up fantasy draft boards. Earlier in the summer it looked like that honor would go to Giovani Bernard of the Cincinnati Bengals, but now the leader in the clubhouse is Eddie Lacy.
Lacy, a powerful downhill runner from Alabama, has all the talent in the world and will have a bright career. But, I never like to depend on rookies in fantasy leagues. They usually have a few good games, but they’re not consistent and you just can’t count on them week in and week out.
3. C.J. Spiller
C.J. Spiller was a guy that everyone expected to break out for a few years. Every year, someone in your league, and usually me as well, would take a late-round flier and hope that he would finally live up to the hype.
Well, last year he did — sort of. Spiller was up and down all year, sometimes he would show up and sometimes he wouldn’t. In the end, his statistics looked good, but if you needed to count on him every week you never knew if he was going to let you down or not.
This year, all the reports out of the Buffalo Bills camp are that Spiller is finally going to be the featured back. But, don’t sleep on old-faithful runner Fred Jackson.
Spiller hasn’t proven that he can take the physically abuse that being the No. 1 guy brings. For a guy that’s likely to go in the top five or so of your draft, grab a running back with more of a resume and less question marks.
2. Randall Cobb
Randall Cobb checks off all the boxes for an over-valued fantasy guy. He plays the league’s new sexy position, slot receiver. He plays for a high-flying, high-scoring offense with a great quarterback. All the reports in camp are that he’s going to be a bigger part of the offense than he was last year.
Well, when things look too good to be true, they usually are. Cobb is good — especially valuable in PPR leagues — but don’t get caught up in the hype that he’s worth a second or even a third-round pick.
The Green Bay Packers don’t rely on any one receiver. They use all the weapons at their disposal. Aaron Rodgers is great at attacking defensive weaknesses and taking what they give him. Cobb may have a few big games, but the Packers aren’t going to force feed him like you want out of your No. 1 receiver.
1. Arian Foster
Arian Foster has been a fantasy behemoth since breaking onto the scene in 2010. While that wasn’t a long time ago, running backs in the NFL age faster than at any other position. Foster, like all backs who take on a large workload for several years, has started to show some wear and tear on his body.
He’ll go early, probably even second overall, in your draft his year. If you have one of the top picks, skip Foster and his injury issues and grab another one of the other top backs. Preferably a younger, fresher one.
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