2013 Fantasy Football IDP Profile: Morgan Burnett
If you are looking for IDP options, finding teams that score a lot of real life points is a good place to start. The Green Bay Packers will be amongst the league leaders in the NFL in offense in 2013. When a team scores like the Packers do, their opponent will have to score to keep up. With Charles Woodson leaving the Packers for the Oakland Raiders, safety Morgan Burnett is now the main man in the Packers’ secondary. What can we expect from him in 2013?
Burnett had a great season in 2012; he doubled his sacks to two, grabbed two interceptions, forced two fumbles, and had a career best 122 tackles. While those numbers were somewhat inflated, due to injuries to teammates like Clay Matthews and Tramon Williams, Burnett should see similar output in 2013.
You could make a case for Burnett as the top DB prospect this season. I think he has a higher ceiling over other top tier DB’s like Charles Tillman, Eric Berry or Eric Weddle, all three of whom are fine choices, yet probably won’t see the volume of passes at that Burnett will.
The schedule is favorable for Burnett this season. First off, the Packers will face the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions (twice), Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears (twice). All those teams tend to throw interceptions in bulk. With the exception of Minnesota, and possibly Cleveland, they are also pass first teams. That’s a little more than half the schedule, and while anything is possible on any given Sunday, I don’t see many of those teams beating the Packers, and if they do it will be a shootout. Thus, we can conclude those teams will be forced to throw the ball, increasing chances for interceptions, forced fumbles and tackles for Burnett. Burnett will also have ample opportunity to square off against some of the top receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall, each who will see plenty of targets.
One of the few negatives I have on Burnett this season is that the Packers look like they will be deploying M.D. Jennings opposite of Burnett. While Adam McGill thinks this will increase Burnett’s opportunity, I have to disagree. If I was an opposing offensive coordinator, I would much rather be throwing the ball at the safety who had 45 tackles and two passes defended, over the safety who had 122 tackles and five defended passes. It can be agreed upon, however, that Burnett is one of the top DB choices for 2013.
Burnett also showed up on the injury front with a reported hamstring injury after Thursday’s game. All reports indicate that it was a slight strain, and he was removed from the game as more of a precautionary measure. However, hamstring injuries do have a propensity to linger, so it is worth monitoring.
Assuming he stays healthy, Burnett should eclipse 120 tackles for the third straight season, eight passes defended, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. I currently have him as the top ranked DB option for 2013.
As always, I welcome your comments. If you think I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen. Just make sure to back it up with some facts and solid evidence. Thanks for reading and good luck this season.