Has everyone else forgotten 2011 already? I know we live in a now, now, now world, with Twitter, the 24-hour news networks and the internet, but Jared Allen was the J.J. Watt of 2012, after Allen had an amazing 2011 season.
While Watt is averaging an ADP of round four or five, Allen is projecting an ADP in the tenth round. Is that five round, 50 player difference going to equate to a 50 player drop in production from Watt to Allen? I doubt it.
I went into detail here about how history shows that Watt probably won’t replicate his 2012 production in 2013. While I have no doubt that Watt is the best player at his position, I’ve written before about how draft day is all about value. If I can get similar production in round 10 to what I can get at round five, I’m waiting until round 10 to grab that similar value.
What can we expect from Allen in fantasy 2013? First off, he is on the final year of his contract. Players typically seem to elevate their game come contract year. Allen has not missed a game since 2007, and has missed only three games in nine seasons. He averages over 13 sacks a season, and has only missed the 10 sack mark twice in his career. He has been a top five DL in seven of the last eight seasons.
Allen faces four of the six most sacked quarterbacks from 2012, including Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler twice, in addition to Tony Romo and Cam Newton. Allen also squares off against four of the eight most intercepted quarterbacks from 2012.
I always like to consider both the positives and the negatives, and I have a few about Allen in 2013. Allen is now 31 years old, and has a ton of mileage on the tires. I also have a hard time seeing the Minnesota Vikings having many leads late in games, which could hurt his sack totals.
Despite that, I still have Allen as a top five defensive end on my board. Allen should offer similar production to Watt, at a much cheaper price. Allen should be able to accumulate around 50-60 total tackles, two or three forced fumbles, and two or three passes defended. He will make his fantasy money in the sack department once again, and there is no reason to think that he won’t eclipse 10 sacks again this season. I think he finishes 2013 closer to 15 sacks than 10.
As always, I welcome your comments. If you think I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen; just back it up with some facts and solid evidence. Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
Read more from Dustin here.