2013 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Beware the No. 1 Pick
This may sound crazy, but I am not a fan of having the No. 1 overall pick. Most Fantasy drafts feature a snake-style system where if you pick first in round one, you pick last in round two, then first again in round three. Conversely, if you draft third in the first round, you would draft third from last in the second round and third again in round three.
Again, I may be in the minority, but if I could choose my draft spot, I wouldn’t want the first choice.
First off, there is no doubt that there are players that you could theoretically ride all the way. Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson come to mind. Does having the No. 1 pick means that whoever you choose needs to have an exceptional season or they are a “bust?” Not necessarily, but with the wait you will experience (more on that in a second) before getting your second choice, your first round, first overall better be putting up the points.
If that player gets hurt, you will be second-guessing yourself all season. I hope that nobody’s first round choice gets injured, but if that happens, don’t beat yourself up, no way you could have seen that coming (unless you use the first overall choice on Michael Vick).
Another peril is there will be a wait until you get your second pick. If you play in a 10-team league, you have to watch 18 players come off the board before you get your second pick, another 18 before your fourth, etc. Odds are that you will likely get divided right on what I call the “tier breaks” between hypothetical groups D and E. Add in more teams and the wait will obviously increase, 12 teams is a 20 player wait, 14 teams and you are waiting 22 players. That is a lot of talent you have to watch get scooped up and you will constantly be adjusting your queue.
I think it would be better to draft in the three to five spots. You will have a better chance at snagging two top-tier players as opposed to one top-tier player and one that is right on the cusp of tier one and two. I would actually prefer to have a more well rounded team, with two or three guys who could be game breakers, instead of having that one who is a game breaker, and one or two who might be game breakers.
If your league allows for trading of draft spots, you might be able to pull a trade off to switch first-round choices and throw in a second or third, possibly increasing your opportunity to bolster your roster. Some owners foam at the mouth at the chance to go No. 1 overall I’ve heard.
Again, this is just my personal preference. Sound off in the comments or tweet me, I’d love to hear where you would ideally draft.
As always, I welcome your comments. If you think I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen. Just back it up with some facts and solid evidence. Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
Read more from Dustin here.
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