Dez Bryant had a crazy year last year, but don’t expect a repeat performance.
Bryant will probably go in the second round, maybe before hidden studs like Matt Forte and Stevan Ridley. Not only will those guys almost certainly get more fantasy points than Bryant, but there is more depth at wide receiver. He would have to perform even better than last year to maintain his spot, from a fantasy prospective, and that is a dubious proposition.
Why is it dubious? Because the season he had last year was incredible. He grabbed 12 touchdowns and almost 1,400 yards. The season before he scored fewer TDs and had less than 1,000 yards. Furthermore, the other Dallas Cowboys receivers had off years, or were unlucky to Bryant’s benefit. For example, Jason Witten caught 20 more passes, but seven less touchdowns. That is unlikely to happen again. Tony Romo is going to throw 30-35 touchdowns, like he has for the last three years; the question, is who catches them? And to expect Bryant to steal so many from Witten again is not wise.
Bryant may become another victim of the single great year disease. Players who have one year that is incredible, but cannot sustain it, often get drafted too high for the rest of their career. A good example is Chris Johnson. He has consistently had around 1,300 yards each year, except for a single year where he broke 2,000. Smart fantasy players know to expect him to keep performing as he has most years, but he also gets drafted a little early by someone remembering that 2009 campaign.
Drafting Bryant is not a bad idea in general, but with him going in the second round in a year so depleted for good running backs and so full of high potential wide receivers, it doesn’t make sense. If Bryant drops to the third, jump on him, but that is very unlikely.
Jay Cullen is a New York Giants writer for RantSports.com. Like him on Facebook at Jay Cullen-Rant Sports, or add him on Google.