Kyle Rudolph is the product of randomness.
In fantasy, two major factors go into points: yards and touchdowns. Yards are fairly consistent, touchdowns are not. So yes, Kyle Rudolph was a top-10 tight end last year, but guess what, he was 25th in yards, and second in touchdowns — that screams randomness.
Rudolph has the same problem as Mercedes Lewis. Lewis scored 10 touchdowns in 2010, was drafted early in 2011, then failed to make not just the top-10 tight ends, but he did not even make the top-30. One year, he had 10 touchdowns, the next he had none.
If touchdowns did not matter, he would have been slightly worse at about two points per game, but because touchdowns were how he got most of his points, he quickly become useless. Rudolph seems to have the same fate.
Now there are exceptions. Anyone who uses statistics needs to understand where they come from and what they mean exactly. So even though it has been shown that touchdowns vary widely from year to year, big touchdown numbers can be expected from many players.
A good example is Stevan Ridley. He plays for the New England Patriots, a team that scores a lot and likes to run near the goal line, which leads to touchdowns. Marques Colston is always good for at least seven touchdowns because the New Orleans Saints score a ton.
Rudolph is not in this category. Adrian Peterson is an incredible running back, but to expect him to repeat one of the greatest seasons in NFL history is unfair, and Rudolph’s quarterback is still Christian Ponder.
Rudolph had less than 500 yards last season. Over 20 other tight ends had more than that. So why are people drafting him in the eighth or ninth round? It does not make sense. In all honestly, Rudolph should not be drafted; Brandon Myers, Owen Daniels and Greg Olsen are all better options and all easier to get.
Don’t be wooed by touchdowns if there isn’t the yardage to back it up. Don’t draft Kyle Rudolph.
Jay Cullen is a New York Giants writer for RantSports.com. Like him On Facebook at Jay Cullen-Rant Sports, or add him on Google