Matt Forte is a boring pick, but a good one.
Forte’s draft position has the opposite problem of some overvalued stars; last year he scored fewer touchdowns than one would expect. Because of this he is undervalued this year.
Forte only scored five touchdowns last year, tied for last in the top 15 running backs. The only other was Jamaal Charles, whose touchdown problems were expected because of inept quarterback play. Forte was not on the best offense, but certainly a solid one, so five touchdowns was oddly low. The reason was straight forward: Michael Bush. Bush took the goal line carries, thus usurping Forte of the juiciest run plays for fantasy owners.
The word out of the Chicago Bears camp seems to be that Bush will not get those carries, thus opening up the work for Forte. One would think that fantasy drafters would take this into consideration. Forte finished 12th in fantasy rushing last year, but is ranked as the 12th running back for many of the top fantasy sites. There is no reason to believe Forte’s yardage production should go down, and his touchdowns will certainly go up, so investing in Forte is a smart decision.
Forte is an acceptable number one running back, but he is an extreme value if he can be a number two running back. In many drafts he is falling to the second round but has first round value. Pairing a great first rounder like him with Calvin Johnson or C.J. Spiller is an amazing backbone to build your fantasy team. Forte should get more touchdowns this year; in fact, over ten would not be a surprise. Don’t let touchdown numbers from last year affect your decision making this year. Touchdowns are often random from year to year, so target Forte.
Jay Cullen is a New York Giants writer for RantSports.com. Like him on Facebook at Jay Cullen-Rant Sports, or add him on Google.