Having been a Fantasy Football participant for more years than I would like to admit to and a life long statistical nerd I find a rather large part of my enjoyment to be found in the numbers of the game throughout the years and the multitude of stories they can tell. Without trying to sound “too Bill James” on you, numbers really are the Holy Grail of identifying traditions and newly evolving trends.
For instance, at various positions in the NFL there is a certain number that is associated with individual excellence.
Example – a wide receiver that catches ten balls or surpasses the 100-yard plateau for a game is considered to have had an excellent day. Chances are you will find his name among stat leaders at the end of the day on ESPN or the NFL Network.
In Fantasy Football there are similar plateaus that are indicative of an exceptional outing. This number is dynamic depending on what scoring preferences you have established for your league, but a good rule of thumb is the standard 20-point per game identifier of the main fantasy positions.
We all can – and often do – hope for more than 20 each weekend, but if our main starters eclipse this mark we can pat ourselves on the back and generally enjoy a win that weekend.
Just like a 100-yard receiving day is generally the exception and not the rule for most NFL wide receivers, the 20-point mark in Fantasy Football too is a general exception. These numbers simply don’t happen for everyone all the time, which makes the plateaus unique. If we look back at the top quarterback, running back and wide receiver of 2012 we notice Aaron Rodgers did average over 20 at 21.56, but Adrian Peterson did not (19.21) nor did Calvin Johnson (13.75).
The gaps in these averages are not an anomaly. Quarterbacks outscore running backs and running backs outscore wide receivers in Fantasy Football year in and year out. When looking back through the statistics since – I am willing to bet – the inception of the game this trend is fact.
However, and I am getting to my rather long and drawn out point, times are certainly changing. Changing so much, that 2013 could actually be an extraordinary year in fantasy sports.
I will explain. In 2010 the best wide receiver’s total season points would have landed him in the top 15 of running back scores. In 2011 the best wide receiver would have been within the top 10 of running back point totals, and in 2012 the best wide receiver would have ranked in the top 5 of running back numbers.
What does this mean? Simple – the NFL is a passing league.
Yes, I know, we all knew that going in to our drafts this season. But are we hitting unprecedented levels? Could a wide receiver actually end the season with more total points than the top running back?
It could happen, folks. In fact – it’s happening now.
Sure, the stats I am about to throw your way are only two weeks in the making, but they certainly show the possibility.
Two weeks in to the 2013 NFL season only one running back, LeSean McCoy, is averaging over 20 points per game while three wide receivers (DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz and Eddie Royal) are eclipsing the mark on average each week.
So three wide receivers are accomplishing each week what only running back is able to do? Let me throw in one more eye opening stat that currently supports the above predictions. Jackson, the lead wide receiver, is outscoring teammate McCoy, the early season’s best fantasy scoring running back.
The best wide receiver outscoring the best running back is news and certainly something we’ve never seen, but that is only half the story. If you take the best fantasy wide receivers and put them up against the best fantasy running backs, four wide receivers and only one running back make up the top five.
That’s no mistake. One wide receiver is outscoring the best running back, one is tied with the best running back and two other receivers are outscoring the second best running back. This is a phenomena that has never happened in Fantasy Football.
The landscape of the NFL and Fantasy Football is a proverbial shifting paradigm. Bob Dylan sang about it and stats are starting to support it – “Times they are a changing.”
Related:
2013 Fantasy Football Dark Horse: Eddie Royal
Fantasy Football 2013: Philadelphia Eagles Offense is Heavenly for Fantasy
Jim Heath is a Fantasy Football writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @jim_heath, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google
