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Fantasy Football Overreaction: Tony Romo

Matthew Emmons USATODAY Sports

Matthew Emmons USATODAY Sports

Tony Romo went toe to toe with Peyton Manning last week in a 99-point shootout, and while his team came up short in a 51-48 loss, Romo’s fantasy football owners got the last laugh as he was the week’s highest scorer thanks to 506 pass yards and five touchdowns. He could simply do no wrong, and this was against a reasonably good defense without a reliable target in Miles Austin (hamstring).

The Cowboys remain at home and welcome the porous Washington Redskins secondary, who are allowing opponents to completing 67.4 percent of their passes for an average of 298 yards and a 4.5 touchdown to interception ratio, for a Sunday night date – so why am I down on Romo’s fantasy value this weekend?

First and foremost, expectations are the most dangerous thing in fantasy sports. After an explosive week on the national spotlight, Romo seems to have been elevated from “nice talent” to “can’t-miss stud” in fantasy circles, but was this huge performance really that far out of character?

Last season, Romo had at least 415 passing yards in three games and recorded at least three passing touchdowns four times. On the other hand, he also recorded three games with fewer than 230 passing yards and had three games with at least three interceptions. Romo has been Superman before and he has been a super dud before, so why would one massive week change how we view him?

The Redskins are not only familiar with Romo and his tendencies, they are also coming off of a much-needed bye week. They’ve been lit up this season through the air by Michael VickAaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, but so have a lot of teams.

Washington intercepted Romo five times last season and let him complete only 57.6 percent of his passes, numbers that could have been even more impressive had they not faced Dallas on a short four-day week for one of those games. The Denver Broncos hadn’t played against the Cowboys since 2009, and while you can watch plenty of film, there is nothing to replace game experience, something the Redskins have plenty of against this Dallas roster.

My opinion of Romo has not changed because of last week’s huge game. For the record, it won’t  change if he has a 220-yard, four-interception game at some point this season either. For this week specifically, I’ve got him ranked as a fringe top-10 fantasy quarterback. I give the slight edge, as far as Week 6 value, to Andrew Luck (at San Diego Chargers) and Jay Cutler (vs. New York Giants).

Always happy to provide fantasy answers @unSOPable23

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