The old adage when it comes to investments is to buy low and sell high. In terms of fantasy football that is typically executed after a player has a huge game. Owners who sold high on Jared Cook after week one probably got more than it turned out he was worth. Hopefully some of you sold high on Tavon Austin after his two touchdown game in week two. When you can capitalize on that value, you can turn any potential weaknesses on your team into a position of strength.
With that being said, nobody in all of football has more value than Peyton Manning right now, which is exactly why owners should consider selling high on him.
What? Sell Manning? Yes, I know it seems crazy, but think about it for just a moment.
Manning is the leading scorer in fantasy football by over 11 touchdowns. He has torn it up at a record pace this season. He also is dealing with two ankle sprains, and he will have to deal with the one area he hasn’t seemed to figure out yet, cold weather.
Anyone who watches football or is a Manning detractor knows that he doesn’t play his best in the cold. Per Weatherspark.com the average temperature in Denver during November ranges from 56-45 degrees Fahrenheit for the highs and 27-36 for the lows. Obviously, December will have lower numbers. Consider Manning’s 0-4 record in cold weather playoff starts, including an 0-3 mark in sub 40 degree temperatures. In those three games he completed 64-120 passes for 612 yards, one touchdown and seven interceptions.
Ponder the possibility of the Denver winter coming in strong, leading to cold temperatures and windy conditions. Suddenly passes aren’t being completed as efficiently, and defenses start to go single coverage on the receivers. The box now has more people in it, leading to tougher runs for Knowshon Moreno. Additionally, it isn’t crazy to think that if the weather is tough that the offensive game plan might call for more runs as teams traditionally run the ball more and pass less as the weather gets worse.
If you were to put Manning on the trade block in your league, I would believe that you could at least fetch a quarterback swap and either a top tier running back, receiver or tight end, or possibly two. If I had Manning and the return was a decent top 15 quarterback, and both a wide receiver and a running back in the 10-15 range, I might pull the trigger if my team had some upgrades that were needed. I wouldn’t sell him for less than that though.
Depending on your weaknesses, it might be worth considering, as you could probably address multiple deficiencies. Think of the Herschel Walker trade or when the Washington Redskins traded away three first round picks and a second round pick to acquire the pick that led to their drafting of Robert Griffin III. While it is too early to judge the latter trade in real life, you should understand the potential return for offering the best player in football.
Of course you could always just stand pat and hope that that Manning weathers the cold.
As always, I welcome your comments. If you think I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen. Just back it up with some facts and solid evidence. Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
Read more from Dustin here.