By Billy Moy @william_moy6 on March 25, 2014
Every season in fantasy baseball drafts there are players who are overrated. These players end up getting drafted way too high and they end up disappointing owners when they don't live up to their draft-day expectations. I took a look at five starting pitchers who -- given what it takes to acquire them on draft day -- are sure to disappoint fantasy owners in 2014.
Look, I think Tanaka is going to be a fine pitcher in MLB, but at where he's currently being drafted he's going to need to be Yu Darvish 2.0 to provide any sort of value. I have Tanaka ranked as my 30th starting pitcher heading into 2014, but in ESPN leagues he's the 15th starting pitcher being taken in drafts and in Yahoo! leagues he's 23rd.
Weaver has watched his velocity drop over the last few years, and as a result his strikeout rate (K/9) has plummeted from 7.56 in 2011 to 6.82 and opponents are driving the ball with more success. I have Weaver ranked as my 44th starting pitcher heading into 2014, but in ESPN leagues he's the 23rd starter going off draft boards and in Yahoo! leagues he's 34th.
Moore walked 4.55 batters per nine innings last season (second worst rate in baseball), and it was the second year in a row his walk rate was over four (no coincidence his WHIP has been 1.30 or higher the last two seasons as well). Moore is the 31st SP going in ESPN leagues and the 29th SP going in Yahoo! leagues; I currently have him ranked 58th among starters.
Sabathia's velocity has dropped from 93.8 mph in 2011 to 91.1 mph in 2013, and as a result he's now getting crushed by right-handed hitting. I currently have Sabathia ranked 48th among starting pitchers, but he's being drafted as the 37th SP in ESPN leagues and 41st in Yahoo! leagues.
So much of Scherzer's value in 2013 came from his win total, and that's simply not something we can expect to repeat in 2014. Scherzer's a fine pitcher, but at where he's currently going in drafts there's just no value to be had; I have him ranked as my No. 12 starting pitcher, but he's currently the 6th SP going in both ESPN and Yahoo! drafts. I'll gladly take Justin Verlander or David Price a round later instead.
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