Fantasy Football 2014: 5 Players Who Seem Like First-Rounders, But Aren’t

5 Players Who Seem Like First-Rounders, But Aren't

Peyton Manning
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

You can't necessarily win your fantasy draft in the first round, but you can lose it.

Picking in the top four or five picks of the draft is pretty simple. You take the best running backs available and feel great about it. However, it's the picks toward the back end that tend to trigger some debate and confusion, and it's possible to swing and miss, even though the player may seem like a stud. Don't fall for the trap.

5) Doug Martin

Doug Martin
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

5) Doug Martin

Doug Martin
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

I think fantasy owners are far too high on Martin right now. He was one of the four or five first round backs to burn fantasy owners last season, is coming off shoulder surgery, and now, he may not even be the true workhorse you'd want out of a top pick. Offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford stated that he plans to alternate backs, and said that he doesn't envision a back being able to do it all in an offense. I'll pass, thanks.

4) Arian Foster

Arian Foster
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

4) Arian Foster

Arian Foster
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Foster is currently being drafted right at the end of the first round (1.11) according to Fantasy Calculator, and while he's still arguably the best short-yardage back in football, I don't think he warrants a first round pick right now. 2013 was a year removed from a 400-touch season from Foster, and he was hurt. Backs tend to tail off after posting a 400-touch year, and while Foster is in a good system, I'd rather take a guy like DeMarco Murray.

3) Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

3) Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I was actually really surprised to see that Thomas was coming off the board at pick 1.10 during early mocks, and while he could easily finish the year as the top-scoring fantasy wideout, that doesn't warrant a top-12 pick. Last year, Thomas was the number two wideout in fantasy, but still wasn't even a top-25 player. Running backs and quarterbacks score all the points, folks. Bebe is great, but not first-round great.

2) Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

2) Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

I feel dirty.

Calvin Johnson may be the best overall player in football. Yet, I am saying he shouldn't be a first round pick in fantasy. This, however, is in a standard league. PPR, on the other hand, sure, take him top-seven. But, consider this. Over the last six seasons, 12 wideouts have been drafted in the first round, but only one matched that ADP. Running back is too scarce, receiver too deep. Still love you, Megatron.

1) Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

1) Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN, 13 passers posted 240 fantasy points or more last year, the most since 1960. And in 2012, 21 passers posted at least 200 fantasy points, the most ever. Quarterback is just too deep to risk missing out on the scarce rushers. Via CBS leagues, championship teams had Manning on 16 percent of leagues and, while running back Jamaal Charles was owned on 25 percent of championship squads. Running back, running back, running back.


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