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2014 Fantasy Football: Eddie Lacy Bound to Disappoint

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By @SicEm18

Eddie Lacy

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

It seemed that Green Bay Packers rookie running back Eddie Lacy was a disappointment last season after sustaining an injury in just his second game. But then he bounced back quickly. Lacy was the driving force for a Packers team that missed Aaron Rodgers for seven games. That force gave him a trip to the Pro Bowl as well as rookie of the year honors. Not only did he help his team reach the playoffs, but fantasy GMs benefited as well from the sixth ranked running back. But after such a dominant season, he’s bound to disappoint for a variety of reasons.

At the tail end of last season Lacy saw seven games without Rodgers as his signal caller. That meant his attempts should have gone up to offset the lack of passing attack, right? Wrong.

During games without Rodgers — on average — Lacy saw 3 fewer carries per game. Fewer carries and more experience than in the first half of the season should result in more efficiency, right? Wrong again.

During those seven games, Lacy saw fewer carries and his yards per carry dropped from 4.2 to 3.0. Something’s wrong with that picture — why was he seeing less efficiency? Well, the defenses could focus on him more, but you’d expect the experience from the season’s beginning to help. That worries me.

So of course with those two stats lowered, that means his entire statline lowered as well. In that time span, Lacy saw nearly 20 fewer yards per game. However, he was an overall more efficient fantasy player because he saw more goal line attempts, therefore seeing more touchdowns. Lacy also saw more receptions and receiving yards due to uncomfortable backups tossing him swing routes in Rodgers’ absence.

Now that Rodgers is back and ready to go, Lacy will continue to see the yards and attempts. But because of the pass first mentality in Green Bay, no matter what player has left (like James Jones or JerMichael Finley), Lacy won’t see the money making touchdowns as he had seen in his star QB’s absence.

But this is not to say Lacy will be “bad” — he’ll just disappoint because of the return of perennial top tier QB. Even with Rodgers on the field, Lacy averaged 14 points per game last season and that would put him on pace for anther Top 10 season.

It may just be my general lack of trust in young players, but I’m worried about drafting him. We’ve seen too much fluctuation in his play already — I’m not sure he’s developed enough yet. Just don’t put all your eggs in Lacy’s basket and get some solid back ups if you pick him.

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