Fantasy Baseball: It’s Time to Sell High on Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum, Fantasy Baseball

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San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum is not the ace he once was, in real or fantasy baseball, but Wednesday afternoon he no-hit the San Diego Padres for the second time in less than a year and he’s now 6-5 with a 4.42 ERA in 16 starts (91.2 innings) this season. Could Wednesday’s outing be the start of a positive trend?

Lincecum has pitched solidly recently, with a 3.00 ERA over his last four starts while going at least six innings in all four outings. His K/9 rate is just 6.3 over that span, but his BB/9 rate has been an impeccable 1.7 to help offset that. For the entire season to this point, Lincecum has an 8.1 K/9 rate and a BB/9 rate of 3.5.

To best pinpoint what to expect from Lincecum over the rest of the season, I think it’s best to look at how he did before and after his no-hitter last year. In 18 starts prior no-hitting the Padres on July 13, 2013, Lincecum had a 4.61 ERA, a 9.4 K/9 rate and a 3.7 BB/9 rate over 107.1 innings. In 13 starts after the no-hitter, Lincecum posted a 4.54 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 over 81.1 innings. That includes a dismal outing (eight earned runs over 3.2 innings) in the start right after the no-hitter, and if you leave that outing out he had a 3.82 ERA over his final 12 starts while going at least six innings nine times in that span.

Lincecum’s next start is scheduled for next Tuesday night at home against the St. Louis Cardinalswho are currently in the bottom half of the National League in runs scored (303, 3.8 per game), home runs (46), slugging percentage (.369), OPS (.688) and RBI (289). That looks like a favorable situation, and I think another good outing may come, but fantasy owners who have pitching depth and holes elsewhere should look to trade Lincecum right now at the peak of his value.

Brad Berreman is a Senior Writer at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter or connect on Google +.


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